Christmas and Cheltenham
Faugheen Novice Chase
Willie Mullins has a phenomenal recent record in this contest, winning four of the last seven which includes two of the last three, Al Boum Photo more than likely would have won for him in 2017 had he not have fallen at the last and Getabird was a narrow second in 2018.
It was therefore unusual that he wasn’t represented in the race last season, but it should be business as usual in the 2022 renewal. It looks as though he’s going to be represented by Kilcruit, the formidable bumper performer of two seasons ago.
His hurdling career just never really took off having been beaten in 4 of his 5 starts last campaign. It wasn’t all bad though as he was beaten by a couple of good ones at Christmas in Minella Crooner and Journey With Me, then a third in the Supreme behind Constitution Hill and Jonbon isn’t exactly shoddy form.
When he reappeared at Punchestown last month for his chase debut, he was entitled to do what he did against inferior rivals, but he looked back to somewhere near his best in the manner he did it. It was an assured round of jumping for a debut, he was economical and quick. He looked far more comfortable than he did over hurdles last year and I think we’ll see a much better horse this season.
It looks as though the unbeaten Gerri Colombe is heading here for Gordon Elliott, but I think he’s been handily placed to have remained unbeaten to be honest. I can see this test being plenty short enough for him and Kilcruit having too many gears, even if the ground is on the soft side, as Mullins charge has won on a variety of surfaces.
Recommended Bet
Back Kilcruit @ 9/4
Welsh Grand National
The result of this race may well depend on the well-being of Quick Wave. We’ve only seen her twice since March 2021, but both appearances have resulted in facile victories. She’s 9lb well-in at Chepstow and could wipe the floor with her rivals, but as the rest of her career indicates, she’s not the most consistent.
I think there’s some serious value in Oscar Elite here. He too would not be consistent, but he’s 33/1, so it’s more of a risk worth taking. Placing in Grade 1s over hurdles, he proved his ability before ultimately disappointing in his novice chase season, but a third in the Ultima Handicap at the Cheltenham Festival showed the necessary signs that the ability was still there.
Going off 9/1 for the Coral Gold Cup last month, it’s safe to say more was expected than his tenth place finish. But I’m not convinced he was ever really going at Newbury and given his previous form, softer ground than it was that day would help him.
He’s won on both his visits to Chepstow which is an obvious positive and even though he’s by no means guaranteed to run well, he definitely has the capability to and he’s worth chancing under conditions which should favour him.
Recommended Bet
Back Oscar Elite @ 33/1 Each Way
Mares Hurdle
The way the betting has gone, it appears as though Allegorie De Vassy is heading the chasing route, so I’m happy with the position we’re in from earlier in the year. But that then brings me back to the Mares Hurdle. There was a bit of a shake up here with Henry De Bromhead not ruling this out as an option for Honeysuckle. But in my view, if she doesn’t run in the Champion Hurdle, it’s because she’s not quite the same horse she was, therefore I don’t believe she’d be a bet in this either.
On the contrary, I’d be surprised if Epatante didn’t run here given she effectively has no chance against her stablemate, Constitution Hill, in the Champion Hurdle.
But despite being impressive in the Aintree Hurdle, she was pretty disappointing at Punchestown.
For me, the bet in this race is Brandy Love, who appears to have an abundance of ability. She was beaten by Allegorie De Vassy at Fairyhouse but went back to that venue and slammed the Cheltenham winner Love Envoi easily in April.
Despite jumping left (markedly so the first time), the results were remarkable really.
Her only run over hurdles going left-handed was an easy win at Naas and going back that way round would likely see her to even better effect.
She’s got a massive engine and given Mullins’ record in this race I think she’s the one to be on. I’m not concerned we haven’t seen her yet as they were debating retirement with her through the summer, so by all accounts she was a little late going back into training, but even if we only saw her once before the festival, which would be enough to blow the cobwebs away.
Recommended Bet
Back Brandy Love @ 6/1
Ballymore Novices Hurdle
The top 3 in the market all represent Willie Mullins, but the one I like most is the biggest price of the trio. I’d say there is pretty much no chance Facile Vega runs here, he’ll be in the Supreme.
Grangeclare West is an interesting one, he was expensive at the sales and won in decisive fashion on hurdling debut at Navan and the Grade 1 at Naas in early January has been earmarked as his next start. He does look like a galloper, and I wonder if he could possibly step up to three miles this season. But without doubt, Gaelic Warrior is the value for me at 10/1.
The French import was smashed off the boards to win the Boodles Handicap Hurdle at the festival last season, but his consistent jumping to the right ultimately cost him the race as he went down a short head.
That was his first start for the stable and just his fourth start overall, so he’s entitled to learn from it. What is really interesting is that in the aftermath of that effort, Willie Mullins stated “he will be back here for the Ballymore next year.”
If that’s not confidence in a horse’s ability I don’t know what is! Gaelic Warrior duly returned to action at Tramore in November and absolutely hacked up, by what has been given as 86-lengths. Jumping straight (granted it was a right-handed track) he looked really, really good to my eye. He needs to do it in better company at a left-handed track, but he’s got tons of talent and at 10/1 he definitely rates a bet for me.
Recommended Bet
Back Gaelic Warrior @ 10/1
Alex Peperell