May Acorns: Trainers with Horses Returning from a 120+ Day Break
I'm writing this month’s article on what should have been the eve of Newmarket's Craven Meeting. I should have been talking about the first two English Classics, Chester's May Festival and York's Dante Meeting.
Sadly, the world is the grip of what looks like the worst pandemic since the Spanish Flu pandemic of 1918. No racing is taking place at present in the UK & Ireland or in many other racing jurisdictions around the world due to Covid-19.
When will the sport return?
Well we do know that National Hunt Racing is postponed both sides of the Irish Sea until July 1st. However, there are some hopes the racing could resume in an albeit limited state behind closed doors next month.
Last month I looked at a handful of trainers whose horses could be worth following in April. Thanks to Covid-19 that turned out to be a waste of effort.
However, undaunted by that minor setback I am keeping with the theme of trainers who have proved adept at placing their horses after an absence.
When racing finally restarts, not only do punters face the usual problem of horses returning from a long absence from the track they also face an additional problem of many training establishments having to overcome the lockdown caused by the Covid-19 outbreak.
With this in mind I’m going to look for trainers with trainers with a good record with their horses returning from a long layoff in the case 120+ days.
To get a decent sample size and also to keep the stats as relevant as possible, I have concentrated on trainers who have had at least 20 runners during the period under research and also taken into consideration only the results since the start of 2015.
As ever the excellent www.horseracebase.com with its mine of detailed information and stats is the starting point for this month’s investigation.
Here are my group of nine trainers whose runners will be worth noting on the flat & all-weather when racing returns to Britain.
Jane Chapple-Hyam
This is Jane Chapple-Hyam’s overall record.
This is her record with horses returning from a 120+day layoff.
In 2019 the trainer had 3 winners from 15 runners 20% +18 – Ambassadorial (8/1), Pushmi Pullyu (6/1) & Love So Deep (16/1).
Those qualifying runners going off 25/1 & bigger have produced – 0 winners from 19 runners 2 placed.
Advice: Back Jane Chapple-Hyam flat & all-weather runners returning from 120+day break that are 20/1 & under.
Peter Charalambous
Overall record:
Record with runners returning from a 120+day break.
Advice: Back Peter Charalambous trained runners returning from a 120-day break.
David Elsworth
Overall Record:
And here is his record with runners returning from a 120+day break.
Following the Elsworth 3-year-old’s after a break looks the way to go. He’s 2 winners from 42 runners 5% +12.5 A/E 0.46 15 placed 36% with runners not in that age group
Advice: Back David Elsworth’s 3-year-old’s returning from a 120-day break.
Steve Gollings
Overall record:
And here is his record with runners returning from a 120+day break.
Looking at the different strike rates we can see that the trainer’s record is better than might be expected compared to his overall record.
He’s 0 winners from 12 runners -12 0 placed with qualifying runners returned 20/1 & bigger. So, concentrating on his runners sent off 20/1 & under has produced the following results.
Advice: Back Steve Gollings runners returning from a 120+day break returned 20/1 & under.
Stuart Kittow
Overall record:
And here is his record with runners returning from a 120+day break.
Digging deeper into his record with runners returning from a lay off. He’s 0 winners from 24 runners -24 3 placed 13% with qualifiers 18/1 & bigger.
And he’s 0 winners from 5 runners -5 0 placed with his runners in Class 3 races.
Adding the race class filter & the odds threshold means the trainer has been winning with 1 in 4 of his runners returning from a break.
Advice: Back Stuart Kittow’s runners returning from a 120+day break that are returned 18/1 & under and are racing in Class 4, Class 5 or Class 6 races.
Karen McLintock
Overall record:
And her record with runners returning from a 120+day break.
Not a bad win strike rate at around 15% and more importantly the A/E stat indicates her runners are running above market expectations.
Following her qualifiers blind will see long losing runs but with winners at 40/1, 14/1, 12/1 & 11/1 it’s probably going to be worth doing so.
Advice: Back Karen McLintock’s runners returning from a 120+day break.
Martyn Meade
Overall record:
And his record with runners returning from a 120+day break.
Digging deeper his record with runners returned 14/1 & bigger is 0 winners from 10 runners -10 1 placed 10%.
Normally I would like to see the Chi score at 3 and above but a near 32%-win strike rate is more than acceptable and there shouldn’t be much damage to the betting bank if following his qualifying runners.
Advice: Back Martyn Meade’s runners returning from a 120+day break that are returned 12/1 & under.
Johnny Portman
Overall record:
And his record with runners returning from a 120+day break.
Looking at his record by race type:
He has had winners in non-handicap races but I would probably concentrate on his handicap qualifiers who are performing 68% better than market expectations and have a high Chi score.
Advice: Back Johnny Portman Handicap runners returning from a 120+day break.
Pam Sly
Overall record:
And her record with runners returning from a 120+day break.
Granted not many qualifiers but there is no doubt that Pam Sly can prepare a horse after a long layoff.
Although I have concentrated on the flat and all-weather it’s worth noting that she also has a fantastic record with her National Hunt runners returning from a lay off.
Advice: Back All Pam Sly’s Flat, All-weather & National Hunt runners returning from a 120+day break
Summary: There you have this month’s offering.
Nine trainers who have an outstanding record with runners returning from a long layoff.
Between them they have produced the following set of results:
Breakdown by year:
System 77: Back runners from the following stables which have been off the track for more than 120 days on the Flat and All Weather.
I have added a few angles that can improve the win strike rate and profit and may cut down on the losing runs but you could probably back the trainers qualifying runners blind and make a profit as would have for the last 5-years.
Like many methods. The above figures are based on historic data and whilst history has a good habit of repeating itself, it often doesn’t.
Until next month when hopefully we will have seen a return of horse racing.
John Burke
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