• Home
  • |
  • Blog
  • |
  • Other Sports
  • |
  • Don’t’ Believe The Hype (How to Make Great “Against The Grain” Profits)

May 6, 2020

Don’t’ Believe The Hype (How to Make Great “Against The Grain” Profits)

From the desk of: Andrew David

Andrew David here author of many gambling/trading related products and the man behind Little Acorns Gold; The Legacy, Price Equalisation Method (PEM); Football Bankbuilder and more recently my very popular Quick Fire Betting profits course.

Glad to say all have stood the test of time and for the most part have been very highly received by many third party review sites.

I am also a regular contributor for the excellent What Really Wins Money free weekly eletter and monthly subscription newsletter service edited by my colleague Clive Keeling who really does know his trades when it comes to football with his Delay React Trade (DRT) service.

Together we aim to research unique angles to help drive punters into profit and more importantly stay there!

Today I want to tell you how to make profits by going against popular opinion or ‘going against the grain’. Especially the opinion of the so-called ‘newspaper experts’ who in some part get paid and are sponsored by bookies to write articles – I kid you not! In knowing that, do we just trust their judgement on the tips they promote?

Not saying they would deliberately mislead readers, it’s just I think they are not very good at prediction, or they are biased towards popular opinion in order to piggyback on the wave of euphoria some bets may attract to gain increased readership. Put simply, they tip the selections that will attract the most money rather than the ones most likely to win the event!

For example; many years ago when Wolves got promoted to the Premiership they had an awful start to life in the big time by getting hammered in their first two or three matches. Next, they met the once mighty Man Utd away!

As you can imagine the sporting press went to town full of headlines about can Man Utd reach doubles figures?

With the most popular bet forecast being 10-1 in the correct score market. The sheer arrogance of them and what an insult!

Of course it’s all just to whip up a frenzy and entice punters to make false bets with no chance of winning.

Can you imagine how the Wolves players felt when they got wind of this? Especially rags like The Sun reporting an 8, 9 and even 10-1 score line. Surely a massive siege mentality would set in to protect professional pride for the Wolves side?

These types of favourites are always overhyped and that’s reflected in an artificially ‘press driven’ reduced price and so that’s where we can get a bit of value by going the other way.

I decided to go ‘Under 2.5 Goals’ as I expected a siege mentality from Wolves and from memory it was priced around 10/1.

Now I was at the match that evening and I can tell you Wolves not only punched above their weight but were all over Man Utd and the Reds were indeed lucky to come away 1-0 winners, and of course my Under 2.5 goals bet was landed!

Here is part of the match report in case you think I took a bang to the head:

Wolves had many chances to equalize and even win, but as ever the difference between the two sides was in the clinical finishing. Class sides only need one or two chances and more importantly they make them count.

Here is another example using Wolves. As part of their Europa qualifying matches Wolves met Crusaders from Northern Ireland and again the experts were out in force touting scores from anything over 4-0 to Wolves as below:

To be fair I did think it may be around this score but with Wolves coming off the back of a successful Asian pre-season tour in the sweltering humidity I took a chance and opted again for under 2.5 Goals. I think I got around 8/1.

Final Score: Wolves 2 – Crusaders 0

Then when Wolves played Crusaders away many were piling on ‘Both Teams to Score ‘NO’ at 4/11. Whereas I found the both teams to score tempting at 7/1.

I mean has no one heard of penalties or own goals? A long range Crusaders goal kick into the Wolves area and a crazy tackle and bang one goal to the under dogs I would wager. Or, Wolves could run riot in the first half and go 4-0 up and then take their foot off the peddle leading the way for a Crusader consolation goal?

Of course, it’s all ‘if’s’ but we have to cut the risk of losing down as much as possible.

My belief is there’s always a chance of the underdogs snatching a goal and they did indeed get a goal and it was an own goal!

The above strategy is just one way you can explore and get thinking outside the box. All by simply applying the psychological aspect to your selection process.

Giant Killing Method

Now here’s another dynamic little angle, effective for all sporting events except horse racing, which again finds its success from going head-to-head against popular opinion.

You see, my guess is the giant-killer team or player experiences such a huge ‘high' after their outstanding but most unusual victory, their mental focus for the next outing could fall well below where it should be.

They’ve peaked at such a dizzying height with their ‘cup final’ win that regaining their motivation for the next time out might prove to be just a bit too tricky.

And this theory is supported by Jeff Greenwald in his excellent book, ‘The Best Tennis of Your Life’. In this extract from a chapter dealing with players' emotional responses after a big win, he observes…

“At the 2005 U.S Open, Giles Muller, ranked number 63 in the world, swept aside the world number 3 seed Andy Roddick.

“As is often the case after a big win, Muller’s brief run was stopped dead in its tracks in the very next match. Certainly, it brings to mind the question: How can players keep their winning momentum going, especially after giant-killing wins?

“The first most obvious trap players face as they move through a tournament is getting overly focused on their tournament results. Once this mindset kicks-in, all kinds of thoughts tend to emerge: ‘Now I can’t afford to lose’; ‘I beat a seed. What if I can’t produce the same result tomorrow?’'; ‘My parents/coach/spouse would be so happy if I could win my next match too.'

“On the flip side, players may also find themselves getting too satisfied after a big win and lose their intensity for their next match.

“Often, they celebrate too soon. This attitude is subtle but still deadly. Players aren’t the only ones affected by the euphoria that emerges through winning. Parents, team mates, and coaches can also get sucked into the results trap’ and get excited too soon. And players pick up on this intensity.

“Though it is certainly gratifying for players to see the effect their result can have on people around them it can also distract them from focusing on what will help them win the next day”.

So, here’s the take-away…

Watch out for giant-killers in any sport and then ‘Back against’ or ‘Lay’ the giant-killer in their next outing.

Remember, it doesn’t have to be just main tournaments.

You could look for giant-killers in any event or league.

Maybe the bottom team in the 2nd Division beats the top team – in which case, when the bottom team next plays, either ‘lay’ it or ‘back’ the opposition,..

Just make sure there’s no more than a 7-day gap between the giant-killing event and the giant-killer’s next outing.

And keep a note of all bets placed. I think you’ll find that over time this strategy will add extra profits to your betting account.

My friend makes his living from the following angle amongst many others, but before I delve into it fully I first want to bring you back to my school days.

Were You the Teacher's Pet?

They say school days are the happiest days of your life.

I guess there's some truth in that somewhere but I seemed to spend rather a lot of my ‘happy' school days languishing in the corridor for talking too much in class.

I like to think it wasn't an entire waste of time in that I became quite adept at dodging the Head if he appeared during my temporary expulsions from the classroom. Even so, I have to admit it was a nail-biting close run thing at times.

The ‘get out and stand in the corridor' punishment was meted out for all manner of minor transgressions and I take comfort from the fact I wasn't the only one to receive the sentence.

There were, of course, those who never did put a foot wrong. Nothing wrong with that, I hasten to add, but within their ranks there were one or two who were, well…a wee bit over the top with their displays of fawning conformity.

I won't tell you what the rest of us called them, save to say it was a tad more robust than ‘teacher's pet'—if you catch my drift.

In later life I discovered that individuals who have a need to overly ingratiate themselves with those in charge are not confined to school days.

They're everywhere in the adult world…including the workplace, where in extreme cases they frequently find themselves ostracised by fellow employees.

So what's all that got to do with betting?

I'm glad you asked!

I'll admit right up front that it's a somewhat tenuous link but the mind set I'm about to highlight is rooted in the same psychological need to demonstrate personal worth to those in authority.

You often see it, for example, in the behaviour of football players.

A new gaffer takes over a football club and—despite the team having had a run of poor results immediately before—the players instantly raise their game to either win or draw!

I've seen that happen time and time again—a win or draw first time out under a new manager which belies the team's lowly position in the league.

I will just pluck one example of this from the many that happen all too often.

When Aston Villa appointed new manager Steve Bruce his first game in charge was against Wolves. Although Villa were favourites, I would have fancied a Wolves win under the old regime. However, with Bruce in place, I felt Villa would either win or draw because the players would be looking to impress their new boss in order to maintain their first team place or even to secure their position at the club and their involvement in its future plans.

The match ended 1-1 and, as it happens, Villa were lucky to get a point. Nonetheless, I'm confident there's a realistic edge to be had here with a win bet on the team under the new manager and a ‘saver bet' on the draw.

A more recent example was when David Moyes joined West Ham and his players certainly over performed for their new manager when they won 4-0 in his first match!

The combination of players wanting to impress and a lift in spirits in the dressing room with their new manager makes them tough opponents to beat in their first match and as such don’t ignore this point if you’re thinking about backing against teams with new managers.

There's plenty of opportunity to follow through on this tactic. New managers are appointed all the time in leagues across the world and the same psychology surely applies abroad just as it clearly does to British domestic leagues.

And the way the football managerial merry-go-round is these days, I'm surprised clubs don't have revolving doors on the manager's office.

As mentioned earlier my friend makes his living from a portfolio of these angles and for the full version of these profitable blueprints plus many others please check out my Quick Fire Betting profits course.

Due to the current situation many of us have more time on our hands and you may want to use this time to discover a whole host of new betting methods, strategies, Video Tutorials, Webinars, Bonuses and betting related articles.

You will then be ready to make use of them and profit when sport is fully back to normal. Some can even be used to identify ready to make profits even with the limited sports available as I cover many that are still going.

To claim a risk free month trial for just £1 see below.

https://www.oncourseprofits.com/quickfire

To Sum up…

Most bettors/traders always seem to stick with pure form based on stats, which of course is fine if that’s your way of finding winners and it works for you.

However there is no harm in adding a psychological dimension to your selection process: after all, it may give you that extra bit of value in your final selections. That’s what profiting from this game is all about, finding new and often overlooked edges to gain that value.

All the best,

Andrew David

Featured image - cc-by-sa/2.0 - © Row17 - geograph.org.uk/p/1401119

Got an opinion? Share it in the comments below...


Related Posts

From Crisis Comes Opportunity

A Q and A with Craig Walker

A Q & A with Tony Hargraves – The Sports Trader

System Selections Tuesday 25th February

Steve Carter

Steve Carter is the Associate Editor of On Course Profits magazine. He has relied on his betting skills and knowledge for his income for the past 15+ years. He specialises in horse racing and football betting & trading and knows what it takes to make a living from betting. He is always looking for new angles for himself and On Course Profits readers.

Leave a Reply


Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.

  1. Well the above is all very true
    I have certainly never trusted the
    Racing Post when it comes to Tipping horses
    I much preferred the Days of The Sporting Life and Sporting Chronicle
    And even back in the Day Racing and Football outlook Weekend Specials
    They Did try at least to Give winners
    That went against the Favorite
    How can you trust any Sports paper in cahoot and bed with bookmakers
    I for one think that very often they actually try and Steer you away from the Winner
    But that’s only my opinion
    I Don’t buy the RP and Don’t Read it
    Equally Racing coverage over the years in Newspapers has been so Dumbed down its hardly worth reading
    At one time the Ratings in the Daily mail were top class
    With The Top rate of 78? And the rest spaced out .
    Now Computer generated
    You have a Top Rated and Near enough anything else One Behind
    As for Timeform who have always refused to publish Profit or lost on their Rating but are not slow in blowing their misleading Trumpet when they do advertise its all a bit of a Con
    They will say
    For instance
    Chelteham Day One
    4 out of seven Races won by Top 2 Rated
    What they don’t Tell you or at least not in Bold print
    Is That there May have been
    Joint Top Rated and As Many as Four Joint Second top rates
    Over priced and Certainly over Hyped
    If I do look at Ratings at all I might use Spotform in Mirror
    Or The Express who are not too Bad
    What a Pity Horse raceing bettors no longer have a Punters Club
    Such as the Mirrors run by Noel whitcomb Years ago.

    TV pundits exactly the Same as Papers Probably all get a Crate of the Best Scotch sent to them by the bookies every Christmas
    Not one of them will voice an Opinionn
    On the Liberties taken by Trainers Jockeys or Bookies
    Hence Mrs Coates can have a salary of 300 million Quid a Years
    Obscene
    As For Me I have always backed in Handicaps using much the Same formula as I have done for over Forty years and although I have to Admit through Changing race rules
    That I’ve probably not made Much in the way of massive profit over the last four Years I’m Still ticking over
    Prior to that I was making 300 /400 Points a Year consistently
    However that was always at fiver or Tenner Level Stakes and not Fortunes punted
    Shame . But would My accounts have been closed Very probably
    Another problem these Days that the bookies are able to Get away with .

    Reply

    1. Hi Richard
      Not defending the pundits for one minute but at times there is so much racing, especially on a normal Saturday, that in depth reviews are challenging with races going off minutes after each other. Great to hear that you have had success over the years and would enjoy hearing more about them. The exchanges do offer alternatives to the mainstream bookies, who as you say are quick to restrict winning accounts. Common theme with plenty of the Members. All the best, Steve C

      Reply

{"email":"Email address invalid","url":"Website address invalid","required":"Required field missing"}