For me and most pro bettors deploying sensible money management is as important as the strategy or service itself in order to make long term profits.
In my early days of betting most of my wagers were placed using level stakes, in other words placing the same amount on every selection regardless of price.
In part that was naively born from listening to betting shop punters about how it was the only way to go. So, ok I did make a long term profit but it was very slow going. This led me to believe there must be a better way of using my resources (betting bank) to derive a bigger profit?
From my own research and listening to my other well established pro bettor colleagues, one aspect became clear, and that was simply placing the same stake on every selection was NOT the way to go and in part was a lazy approach to betting with its host of complex variables. Put simply, level stakes were not an efficient deployment of resources in this case.
Each selection in any given market has a greater or less chance of winning based on prices and other various factors, therefore we should stake accordingly to gain maximum return.
Since the early days I developed a way of grading my bets and would allocate a stake based on the strength of the selection. This in turn increased my turnover as I would now incorporate bets, I would have otherwise left alone albeit I would bet them to smaller stakes, maybe at a quarter or half my normal stakes.
I revised the staking on most of my strategies and adapted them to suit each method’s long term win/lose pattern/strike rate and average price of winners.
If the new staking plan involved slight loss retrieval, then so be it. So long as it was comfortably within my risk threshold and the risk/reward return was worth it then I would adopt it forthwith.
For example, A few years back I conducted a test using the ‘BTTS’ (Both Teams To Score) markets on Betfair.
In this test I adopted a 1pt SAW (Stop At A Winner) staking approach. The aim was to win 1pt per day from two selections.
If the first selection lost, I would move onto the second selection and look to recover the lost stake from the first match plus my original 1pt aim for the day.
If that also lost, I would take the hit and wait for the next day.
My criteria were to pick two matches where both of the teams playing scored at least one goal in their last 3 matches whether they won or lost.
Also using Europe’s top leagues where possible. English Premiership, Serie A, Spanish La Liga etc.
If aiming to win £10 at odds of 2.50 you would place around £6.70 @2.50 to win just over £10 (exc Betfair comm’s).
If it wins you are finished for the day and you bank your £10 profit.
If it loses you move onto the second and final selection for the day.
So, this time you aim to recover your lost £6.70 plus your original £10 daily aim.
So again, using odds of 2.50 you need to win a total of £16.70. Therefore, a stake of £10.70 to win £16.75p on the second BTTS selection.
If that wins you stop, and you’ve obtained your daily aim and if it loses you take the loss and wait for the next day starting again to win your £10 aim.
Using the above staking approach made a profit of nearly +16pts during my testing.
Therefore, if aiming to win £10 per day you would have netted almost £160 profit. Not bad at all from just a maximum of ‘2’ bets per day?
Now here’s is a classic example where I think profit could be ramped up with very little added risk based on the last 5 months Win/Lose pattern.
Over the 5 months the longest losing run was eight matches and so based on that lets see what happens when we stake 1pt on the first match, and if that loses 2pts on the second match.
So instead of aiming to win 1pt profit we simply place 1pt on the first selection at the odds offered. So, £10 on at 2.50 would deliver £15 profit.
If that loses, we would then place a 2pt win on the second match again at the odds offered. If they both lose, we take the hit and start again on the next day with 1pt.
Here’s the outcome using the 1pt win on the first BTTS selection and 2pts on second BTTS selection;
Month 1: +22.35pts
Month 2: +1.35pts
Month 3: -1.50pts
Month 4: +1.55pts
Month 5: +4.40pts
Total P/L: +28.15pts
You can see we have already increased the profit by just over 12pts! (£281.50p at £10 per unit point), and only ‘1’ very slight losing month.
Ok so this was made up mainly from the profits from Month 1, but I noticed it was pretty darn solid in that only a slight loss was encountered on the losing month and smallish winnings on the other months.
Now let’s see the results using what I call the ‘15 step extended Fibonacci’ sequence that is ultra safe and one that I use for many of my methods;
Month 1: +19.08pts
Month 2: -3.08pts
Month 3: -0.40pts
Month 4: +6.58pts
Month 5 +5.45pts
Total P/L: +27.63pts
Again, more profit was delivered and very safely seeing as the longest losing run was just eight in 5 months of selections.
Therefore, plenty of buffer built in seen as we are using a 15 step extended Fibonacci sequence.
If you want a copy of the 15 Step Extended Fibonacci then please email me at: firstname.lastname@example.org
The above is just to highlight how different staking approaches can enhance profits from the very same selections. So, something to think about when looking to maximise the returns from your betting bank.
Until Next Month!