– From the desk of: Andrew David
The inception of Betfair and in particular the availability of in-play betting has been a godsend for many punters, especially those who make their profits from the Football and Tennis arena.
Way before the inception of Betfair, every Sunday afternoon I used to watch live Italian football on Channel 4 along with matches from the English championship with a pro gambling friend of mine.
Now in those days we had to place our bets pre match and wait for the result. So when you think of it now it was a fairly rigid and risky approach to betting simply because we had no idea whether the pre match (forecast) odds would be reflected when the match actually went live?
In other words, would the result reflect the odds?
Remember pre match forecast odds are just that, a forecast.
Here’s the dictionary definition below;
1. Predict or estimate (a future event or trend).
Now my friend made a nice living from backing the Top 4 clubs in the premiership at any given time and to fairly large stakes and he did so with pre match betting as that was his only option.
He would not back the top 4 in every game blind; he would also apply a few extra filters to gain his edge. His average profit per bet was around 10-15% which is pretty decent indeed.
During one match I remember him mutter “If only we could place bets during the match?”
The reason why he said this was he knew his match reading skills were par excellence!
After 10 minutes of the second half having elapsed he could accurately forecast whether the match would end in a Home, Draw, or Away win but only if the match was currently at stalemate. So around the 55th minute mark he would make his call.
However, he first would adhere to these ‘3’ simple rules below before he would make his bet;
1) He would wait for one team or the other to have a concerted amount of pressure, say 10-15 minutes of relentless attacking and ball possession in the opposition half.
2) Now if the opposition absorbed this pressure without conceding, he would forecast the team under the cosh would go onto sneak a win or at the very least get a draw.
3) Remember though, this is ONLY in matches where it’s a stalemate at the 55th minute mark. Then and only then do you watch to see whether either team dominates for a period of 10-15 minutes and don’t concede.
Although my friend had excellent match reading skills unfortunately he did not have any platform from which to profit from his prediction skills. This frustrated the life out of him as he really would have made a fortune from these live games.
Fast forward over a decade, and we can now bet in-play with many exchanges and you will note how popular it is by the amount of money traded in-play as opposed to bet pre match.
The amounts matched show the volume of money that is both traded in-play and also those that have bet pre match and who then decide to take and trade that bet in-play (Laying the draw for example).
Remember in-play betting not only affords you the chance to make a profit quickly and then close the trade, it also helps you to protect your bank and mitigate losses should the trade go against you as the match unfolds.
Protecting the bank is just as important as adding to it in the world of trading and that’s the big advantage in-play trading has over pre match betting.
So whether we choose in-play or pre match betting we can all benefit from the in-play market.
Further key points that can affect the ‘flow’ of a match and indicate which way it may go include;
- Early Injuries to key players (players that teams tend to over rely on).
- Red cards (Yes it’s obvious but the earlier the red card the better if you want a goal). Red cards that come late on (85 mins plus) rarely change in score. It’s fine for 10 men to hold on for short periods but not long periods.
- Penalty saves – When a team saves a penalty they usually get buoyed and obtain a renewed confidence in the match believing luck is on their side. On the flip side, the team who missed the penalty have a tendency to drop their heads. Watch and witness it for yourself!
I do hope the above can bring you some extra and unique (or should I say overlooked) angles to try in these fruitful in-play markets.
Until next time,