From the Desk of Andrew David
I’ve been testing a purely priced based method called the 4-4-2 system. Aptly named as it involves football and is based around backing draws.
Obviously, it’s not the finished article, far from it, but it may have legs judging by early success over the past when I have been able to use it.
So, without further ado, below are the bare bones of the mechanics of how it works.
First, we head to Betfair Sportsbook and click on football.
We then scroll through and look for the two lowest priced draws of the day (preferably ones below 3.0). Here are two I found on the day of viewing.
Having found two qualifiers, we next back the draw in both matches in ‘Win’ singles. We also then back them both in a ‘Win Double’.
We do this using a 4-4-2 stake formation (40% x 2 and 20% x 1 of our total unit stake) as shown below using a total stake of £10.00.
You can see above even with one winning draw we have covered our total stake and even made a slight edge.
Two winning draws and we’re in clover and in the above example we would make a 278% gain!
The bet comprises of:
2 x win singles and 1 x winning double
As it happens one of the matches from our example ended in a draw as below:
Initially I was looking to back these matches in a simple ‘winning double’ only, but was surprised by how many results ended with just one of the matches drawing? Therefore. I decided to back them both in Win singles as well as a double and using the above staking distribution.
So far, I have been hitting a 20% winning strike rate where both matches end in a draw, and a 60% strike rate (including winning doubles) where at least one winning draw would come meaning we get a slight edge.
So far so good, but as mentioned it’s early days and the next step would be to adopt an ideal staking plan once enough data has been collated.
I will keep you posted!
See you next month!