10x Your Betting Bank by Laying Red Hot Favourites.
Yes, you can make a decent yearly return by laying horses the racing journalists think will win easily. The secret is in the selection method and the staking plan.
The selection method.
Head on over to www.racingpost.com. We target races in which the Betting Forecast is unequivocal. This horse will win! Here’s an example.
Let’s narrow our focus to the BETTING FORECAST found at the base of all races at www.racingpost.com The Betting Forecast is a Racing Post journalist’s idea of the likely odds in the race. We are interested only in the first 2 horses in the Betting Forecast.
I look for a gap in the odds of the 1st favourite and 2nd favourite of at least 4 ‘points’. Let’s take a simplified example. The first favourite in the Betting Forecast is at Evens. The second favourite in the Betting Forecast is at 5/1
Counting from Evens.
2/1
3/1
4/1
5/1
That’s a gap of 4 ‘points’.
Oh So Charming is a convincing qualifier in this case.
We now lay these selections. Just out of interest, here’s the result of Oh So Charming’s race.
The Staking Plan.
The Staking Plan is the key to long-term success. I have made a good profit each calendar year laying these apparent ‘sure things’.
The staking plan is called the Lay 1-4 Staking Plan and is a rather unique low risk loss retrieval staking plan.
In essence, the staking plan increases by 1 unit after a lay selection has won its race, up to a maximum of 4 units. The stakes remain at 4 units until the loss, called the ‘series deficit’ is returned to zero. Once that occurs, stakes revert to 1 unit.
There is a free spreadsheet here at https://tippingsports.com/en/staking-plans/lay-1-4
But rather confusingly, you have to input WON if your horse loses its race and LOST if the horse wins its race!
The accompanying video will help you grasp this excellent staking plan.
The Key to Success
Given we are laying strongly fancied horses, a lot of these horses will win their races. You can 10x your betting bank in one year (which I have done in 2 consecutive years) by only laying selections when their Betfair Odds are >=1.5 odds. This weeds out the very short priced selections who tend to win more often.
Note: If you don’t apply this filter, this strategy has still profited each calendar year for the last 5 years.
The Proof
Here are the results since 2021 with and without the odds filter.
£100 starting betting bank, £10 starting ‘Backer’s Stake’.
2021
£100 into £824. An excellent return.
Apply the Filter
£100 into £1302.60
2022
£100 into £1479
Apply the Filter
£100 into £1408.70
A marginal drop in profit.
2023
£100 into £91.50 – yet to catch fire in 2023.
Apply the Filter
£100 into £441.90
Conclusions
The accompanying video will take you through the selection process, bet placement, and a look at the Lay 1-4 Staking Plan in action. This is a system which has profited for me for the last 5 years.
It’s working so far in 2023.
Red hot favourites lose enough that we can 10x our bank in a year.
Clive Keeling
Featured Image: (CC BY 4.0) – The Home Stretch | Spent a day at Woodbine Race Track in Tor… | Flickr
