William Buick – A System Review
This time last year we flagged up a possible system for runners with William Buick on board when riding in single figure fields.
Due to COVID there were no selections last year based on the criteria set at the time to test out our theory, so we felt it prudent to take another look.
Our criteria last year drew on his successes in small fields races. Data back to 2006 shows his win strike rate in single figure runner fields is greater than when battling it out in the larger fields.
Backing runners ridden by William Buick in single figure fields blindly though offers no profits, but the P and L for his success when riding on the Newmarket (Rowley) course does pique the interest.
Year on year since 2014 profits in the main have been available when backing Buick rides at Newmarket (Rowley) in small fields, with 2015 being an exceptional year.
For note in 2020 17.89 points profit was made in June of that year in general at Newmarket (Rowley) which prompted the original method, however the original system criteria went on to suggest backing solely in 5f races, of which subsequently there were no qualifiers hence our move of the system to neutral for further review at a later date.
2021 at the Newmarket (Rowley) course has got off to a modest start in the first half of the year with a 25% win strike rate and a 50% place strike rate.
Going back to our overall picture it is clear that a large part of the profits quoted earlier came from a 40/1 winner back in 2015, a 7 year old Energia Davos (BRZ) but taking that out of the equation in the main Buick’s success have come when riding younger horses in Novices and Handicaps in particular.
Recent years have seen a similar pattern of steady and modest profits and it may tentatively be worth looking to back Buick rides when they fit the above criteria through to the end of the Turf Flat season in October.
We will monitor the results and see where they take us.
