Micro Systems for January
Following on from our December Micro systems we’ll now turn our attention to January and see if we can come up with another few systems for our portfolio.
I’ll start as I did last month by looking at Jockeys as our first filter. I will find all jockeys with 10 wins or more and an ISP A/E of 1.00 or above for all rides in the month of January for 2021, 2022 and 2023. This time we’ll be able to have 3 years of test data as we’ll of course be starting 2025. Although the rate at which 2024 seems to have passed I think there must have been a month or two missing from it!! We’ll then see how they did in January 2024 and if that was successful as well then, we shall add it to our micro systems to test out for January 2025.
Here is our list. As we are now using 3 years of past data, I will set 15 wins as the lower limit instead of the 10 used last time with only 2 years of data.
This gives us five jockeys. It actually gave us eight but three of them have now retired (Jamie Moore, Aidan Coleman and Paddy Brennan) so we’ll work with these five and see what we can throw up.
First up is Sean Bowen which might be a tough one to find an angle as he is of course stable jockey for Olly Murphy and very likely over bet so finding some value angle could be tricky. Let’s have a crack anyway!
We’ll be unable to check 2024 for Bowen as he was out injured in January last year, however if we can find something on what we have I’m happy to add it in for 2025.
A glance at general race type shows us that we aren’t going to find any profit in Novice races so we’ll start by dropping those.
The table of specific race types suggest we can forget Non Handicap Hurdle and NH Flat races as well with just 2 wins from 19 rides. Whilst Handicap Hurdle isn’t looking too special either but we’ll leave them in for now.
Now we’ll take a look at a filter that I like to look at. This is the number of horses in the field who won last time out.
0 wins from 13 rides for any race with 3 or more LTO winners in it. That’s a filter I can get behind.
A glance through the trainers he’s ridden for and while nepotism may be all well and good in this case it would not be good for our wallets.
Just 1 win in 13 so we will remove any rides for Peter/Michael Bowen.
There’s a very interesting table below. I had a look at the position in the weights for his horses and the results are quite startling.
As you can see with the highlighted rows there is a massive difference in whether his mounts are Clear or Joint top rated compared to anything else.
With top weights he is 11/35 whilst for anything not top weight his record is just 4/40. How much of that is to do with becoming stable jockey for Olly Murphy I’m not sure, the fact most of those wins were in 2023 suggests it is a fair bit.
A combination of riding better horses and often the best OR horses in the field. Either way he wins on them so I’m happy enough to drop the rest. It’s a shame there’s no January 2024 figures to see how it fared. However, his record was 1/17 in 2023 on those not top rated on mostly Olly Murphy horses so it seems a reasonable assumption to expect that to continue.
With that in mind we’ll add this one to our portfolio. As you can see from the stats, 2021 and 2022 were actually not profitable. However, there were not a lot of bets and just 3 of those rides were for Olly Murphy. It’s worth noting I would not expect anywhere near the level of profit of 2023 (83pts!) because he had wins of 32.59, 16.16 and 14.50. Take those off though and that still left 20 pts of profit from what would have been just 15 bets!
System: JO-122-73-01-2025
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