A look at National Hunt Favourites in Ireland
I must admit I have not researched Irish National Hunt racing in much depth before so today I am going to begin put that right. The data for this piece has been taken from 1st January 2018 to 13th October 2024. All profits and losses have been calculated to Betfair Starting Price (BSP) with 5% commission deducted from any winning selections.
The focus of this article is favourites. When we combine all Irish National Hunt races together favourites have scored around 34% of the time for losses of just under 6 pence in the £. This is slightly higher than I would expected (in the UK over the same period losses have been around 2p in the £).
Let me start by splitting the results by the three main race types – chases, hurdle races and National Hunt Flat races (also known as bumpers):
The strike rates for chases and hurdle races are similar (within 0.7%) and are lower than the NH Flat ones. This is mainly due to having a good number of handicap races mixed into their results. Overall NH favourites have done well losing just 3p in the £.
Next, I would like to break the favourite data down by comparing handicap contests with non handicaps.
Here are the splits:
You would expect non handicap favourites to win far more often than handicap ones and in fact their strike rate is close to double that of handicap jollies. There is a big difference in returns too and hence handicap favourites have offered quite poor value in recent years. This should not come as too much of a surprise as handicap events in Ireland tend to be very competitive.
The best returns for favourites have come in Non Handicap Novice Hurdle races.
These runners would have lost you money but only £8.61 across 548 races. This equates to a percentage loss of just 1.6%.
My next port of call is examining the performance of favourites by course to see what it offers up. Over 100 favourites per course was required to make the list:
It is surprising to see that seven of the courses (Gowran Park, Killarney, Limerick, Naas, Punchestown, Roscommon and Tipperary) have seen their favourites make a blind profit to BSP.
Perhaps the most remarkable of these is Punchestown since the sample size is so big (over 1000 favourites have combined to edge into profit).
Killarney favourites have produced the highest ROI% and these runners have been profitable in both non handicaps and handicaps, with many specific race types (Beginners Chase, Novice Chase, Novice Hurdle, Handicap hurdle) also making a blind profit.
The market leaders have performed less successfully at four courses in particular namely Ballinrobe, Cork, Downpatrick and Sligo.
It is time to have a look at the trainer breakdowns now.
To qualify each trainer has needed to have at least 100 runners that have started favourite during the period of study. The table is listed alphabetically by trainer:
Four trainers have turned a profit (namely Byrnes, Nolan, O’Brien and Queally), while the Irish maestro Willie Mullins is virtually at break– even. For Mullins to be so close to a blind profit from over 2000 market leaders is quite remarkable.
Trainers who have struggled when having the market leader include Emmet Mullins, Fahey, Harrington and Meade. Gordon Elliott has made a small loss overall but when Jack Kennedy has ridden, and the horse is favourite, the stats read 201 wins from 437 runners (SR 46%) for a BSP profit of £27.58 (ROI +6.4%).
I now want to dig a bit deeper into favourites from the Mullins yard as there are a few notable angles worth sharing.
Firstly, when saddling the favourite in a Grade 1 race his record is incredibly impressive – 87 winners from 162 runners which equates to a win strike rate of 53.7%.
Backing all these qualifiers to BSP would have yielded a healthy profit of £38.74 (ROI +23.9%). Secondly, Mullins has an excellent record in Non Handicap Chases. In these races he has had 278 winners from 466 market leaders (SR 49.8%) and they have secured a profit to BSP of £67.97 (ROI +14.6%).
Thirdly, let me share the courses where his favourites have made a profit. The courses are order alphabetically:
The stats for favourites at Killarney, Gowran Park and Tipperary are particularly impressive.
It should be noted however, that not all the favourite stats for the Mullins yard are strong – favs in National Hunt Flat races have struggled in comparison losing around 11 pence in the £ to BSP.
Also, horses from the Mullins stable that fell or unseated last time out have not been good betting propositions when starting favourite in their next race.
Of the 62 horses that qualified 25 won but would have lost you £13.45 (ROI –21.7%).
I want to switch my attention to owners now.
There have only been six owners who have had 75 or more favourites during this timeframe, and they are shown in the table below:
I must admit I was expecting slightly better overall figures from the legend that is J P McManus.
When his favourites have been trained by Willie Mullins he has nudged into a very small profit, but, overall, it is difficult to find any positive angles for McManus favourites. One thing to look out for though is whether the favourite has been backed late on.
If a McManus runner starts at a shorter price than it opened up on course, then they have broken even to BSP (assuming it starts as the favourite). Conversely favourites that drift and remain favourite come the start of the race would have lost you 14 pence in the £ if betting them to BSP.
Favourites from the Gigginstown House Stud ownership have made a blind profit to BSP and when these market leaders have been trained by Henry De Bromhead the stats read 40 wins from 97 runners (SR 41.2%) for a BSP profit of £16.98 (ROI +17.5%).
In conclusion, my research has uncovered some angles that have proved profitable for favourites over the past few seasons. Like all research though it is reporting on the past, so there are no cast iron guarantees that they will prove profitable in the future. Hopefully, though they will – time will tell!
For me, the three main takeaways of my digging have been:
1. Steer clear of favourites in handicap races.
2. Look out for favourites from the stables of Charles Byrnes, Paul Nolan, Joseph O’Brien and Declan Queally.
3. Keep an eye out for favourites from the Willie Mullins yard in Grade 1 events and / or Non Handicap Chases.
For those of you who bet on favourites, but previously have focused solely on UK racing, I hope this article has persuaded you to expand your horizons and try your luck over the Irish Sea.
David Renham
