January Micro Systems
It’s time to hunt down some potential micro systems for January. First though, as always, we’ll take a quick look back through November’s systems.
It’s fair to say it was a disappointing month for them with three of them not registering a single win at all across 51 bets. The shining light by some distance was Joe Tizzard ending with 7.92 pts of profit, winning 25% of the bets.
Elliott’s figures were impressive as far as strike rate goes but unfortunately all low priced. It performed as it had in the past so that was nice to see. A shame the qualifiers are always so low priced on it, but they continued to win and place as they had historically done so I can’t complain about that.
Elsewhere Williams edged into profit on win and place.
The Nicholl’s system did fine as far as strike rates are concerned but again low priced winners left it with small losses.
The Bromhead, O’Neill and Greenall/Guerrero systems were a complete washout. That’s the nature of micro systems; you’re working with limited data and therefore there’s a fair bit of rough with the smooth.
Near misses and what ifs abound but it can be a bumpy ride at times.
For January I’m going to do something slightly different to get our trainer list. I’m going to take all those trainers who had at least 15 wins during January 2023, 2024, and 2025 and then from there I will take those with the best strike rates.
Our trainer list.
Our jockeys, as always, will be all those who had a win whilst riding for any of the above trainers during those three January’s.
We’ll go through alphabetically, so Charlie Appleby is up first.
His off the bat stats are impressive strike rate wise, but no profit to speak off with win odds looking very low.
Looking through the qualifiers there are so many odds on and just over evens winners here that it is not really worth doing.
On now to Andrew Balding who has had 136 runners in our dataset.
Not the best of initial stats either with one big profitable year showing in 2023 and two losses since.
Here’s his record by track. Given the number of bets here I think we’ll remove the three worst performing tracks.
His strike rate is 9-13% down at Southwell and Wolverhampton respectively and he’s had no wins from four at Chelmsford.
This will remove 70 bets and halve our data down to something more manageable to work with in search of a micro system.
A check of the days since last run table suggests that the horses at this time of year seem to do better off a bit of a break. Everything 25 days or less has performed much worse than those coming back from a longer break.
A glance at the prize money suggests that he doesn’t really target the bigger races in January. He mustered no wins and just a single place from seven runs in the higher prized races.
A look at the qualifiers shows nothing under odds of BSP 7 and five of the seven were double figure shots, one of which went off at 69.84 so it would seem he doesn’t really target them or at least hasn’t over the past three January’s.
Our final filter will be based on last time out. Those winning last time out have failed to win from five attempts.
That leaves us with a probably 10-15 bet micro system.
Longest Losing Runs: Wins 6, Places 3
George Boughey - The days since last run table makes for very interesting reading. Just about all the wins come from horses returning between 6 and 25 days from their last run.
All of his wins also fall in the £8000 or under prize money brackets.
Those two filters leave us with a potentially nice looking micro system.
Longest Losing Runs: Wins 7, Places 4.
Nothing for Kieran Burke.
Gavin Cromwell - The first thing we need to set about doing is to get rid of some bets as there are a massive 153 bets from Cromwell in our data.
We’ll go by strike rate and remove everything under 20%.
Concentrating on the lower end of the prize money scale will bring our bets down to a much more manageable level and a strong strike rate.
If we now look at NH race types, we can see that Chases are not profitable.
Whilst the strike rate is good enough the winning odds are on the lower side.
This leaves us here.
Longest Losing Runs: Wins 7, Places 3
Nothing for Ellison or Henderson
Gay Kelleway - Race type gives us our first filter. Non Handicap and Maidens have not produced anything over 12 previous runs.
With nothing else showing as any sort of viable filter we will leave this one nice and simple, which is always nice to be able to do.
Longest Losing Runs: Wins 6, Places 5
Nothing for Loughnane or Mullins.
The next in our list is Olly Murphy. - First of all, we can ditch the AW I think!
Given the number of runners it would also seem logical to concentrate on the race types that are most targeted and indeed most successful in the past three January’s.
Those types being Maiden Hurdles, Novice Hurdles, Handicap Chases and Handicap Hurdles.
If we take a look at horse ages you can see 5 yr olds and over 10’s were pretty unsuccessful.
I’ve taken a look at the stats for the entire three years, not just January using just our current selected race types and both 5 year olds and over 10’s are showing a loss for each of the three years, so I’m happy to remove them here as well.
There are little bits and pieces that could possibly be used as filters but quite honestly, I’m happy to leave it nice and simple because it’s coming in at just under a bet per day and looking very good as it is.
Longest Losing Runs: Wins 6, Places 5
Nothing to be found on Nicholls.
Fergal O’Brien is the next Trainer to look at. - There’s quite a stark difference between his handicap effort s and his non handicap efforts these past three January’s!
He gathered a rather dismal 6% strike rate on Handicaps whilst hitting an excellent 30% on all Non Handicap affairs. I think it’s evident where we should concentrate!
And this reveals that we need look no further! Well, actually I did, just to make sure but there are no other filters that spring out, and we’ll stick where we are.
This is what it gives us.
We’ll get probably a bet every other day on average, hopefully winning around a third of them.
That’s the plan anyway! Hopefully he can produce another January like the last one.
Longest Losing Runs: Wins 7, Places 4
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