What does the form book say about…Favourites in Middle Distance Races.
Middle distance races are another unique aspect of the Turf Flat Season. I define middle distance races as between 1 mile and 2 furlongs and 2 miles. Frequent distances include 1 mile and 2 furlongs, 1 mile and 4 furlongs, and 1 mile and 6 furlongs.
These really are specialist distances, requiring good timing from the jockeys as these are not sprints and are not marathons.
In this article I will look at the performance of favourites in these middle distance races and list for you the most profitable angles for the favourite backer and the favourite layer. I will use the last 10 years’ worth of data and all profits are recorded to Betfair Starting Price (BSP) (a key distinction as on occasion Industry Starting Price may produce losses where BSP produces profit).
Backing Favourites.
All backing profits here are to an illustrative £10 level stakes.
DSLR
Stands for Days Since Last Run. The last 2 years have seen a profit backing favourites to Betfair Starting Price (BSP from now on) coming off the back of 0-7 days since last run.
A 53 point profit backing the favourite to BSP overall, 15.4 points profit since 2022. 2021 was a losing year but the general trend is up.
For those familiar with the Staking Machine staking plans, Rolling Doubles produces an excellent return, not just with a maximum stake of £21 but turning £100 into nearly £1000 over the 10 years.
3 runs in the past month.
I was impressed by the performance of favourites here. £100 into £774.63 to £10 level stakes for favourite backers. 20.85 points profit in 2023 alone catches the eye.
12 runners.
Now this really does catch the eye. Backing favourites in middle distance 12 runner races has turned £100 into £1059.92 in the last 10 years. A 30% strike rate is the norm for favourites but average decimal odds of 4.21 seems to have secured the profit. This is one of those angles I like to look for, as we see a profit under any number of staking plans. Those wishing to expand on the profit potential here have ready options.
21-30 miles travelled to the course.
Proximity to the racecourse for favourites in middle distance races seems to be a key factor in backer’s profits. Mirroring the impressive 12 runner backer’s profits, here £100 has been turned into £1029 backing favourites in middle distance races travelling between 21-30 miles to the racecourse. The price graph is consistent, strike rate 34.7% over the years, with average odds of 3.80 decimal. A longest losing sequence of 20 should be factored into any betting bank size.
You may want to also look to horses travelling 41-50 miles to the course. £100 into £790 over 10 years to £10 level stakes catches the eye, as does the consistent upward trajectory of the price graph.
Beverley Racecourse.
2022 and 2023 posted strong profits backing favourites at Beverley in middle distance races. 2021 was a losing year. An 18 point profit in 2023 may lead you to chance being a backer at Beverley?
Damsire Daylami
Never in 10 years has backing the progeny of Damsire Daylami produced a loss. A very discerning strategy, there have only been 158 qualifiers but they seem worth the wait. £100 into £592 backing to level stakes of £10 there were only 6 qualifiers in 2023. The accompanying video will point you as to where to find the information.
Drawn Stall 8
There is no rhyme or reason for me why favourites in turf flat middle distances are profitable to back, when in Stall 8. £100 into £1023 to £10 level stakes and an upward projecting profit graph. 3 consecutive years of profit. 2020 saw a loss of 0.7 points. It looks a strategy to follow.
Goodwood
Goodwood seems amenable to backing middle distance favourites. £100 into £758 to £10 level stakes and a consistent upward projecting price graph. Confidence boosted by the fact that the bank, over 10 years, never dropped below its original start point. A better class of race at Goodwood = a stronger favourite?
Jockey David Allan.
A jockey to follow on middle distance favourites. Another smooth profit graph, £100 into £677 to £10 level stakes and another instance of the betting bank never falling into the negative. Still profiting in 2023. More to come?
Tim Easterby/David Allan.
The Trainer combination of Tim Easterby and David Allan are worth following in middle distance races. £100 into £477 to £10 level stakes for backers. Another instance of a betting bank never going into the negative. Only 133 selections in 10 years but well worth waiting for.
Sire Mastercraftsman.
The progeny of sire Mastercraftsman seems to relish these specialist middle distance races. Backing these favourites turned £100 into £749 to £10 level stakes. With a longest losing sequence over 10 years of only 8, this looks worthy of your attention.
Sheikh Mohammed Obaid Al Maktoum owner.
Sheikh, Rattle and Roll when this owner’s favourites run in middle distance races. £100 into £691 to £10 level stakes for the backer. Only 219 selections over the 10 years but worth the wait. The betting bank has never been in the negative. 45.7% strike rate.
No runs in the last year.
An interesting angle and a profit for the backer. Particular consistency since April 2017. 61 points profit to £10 level stakes since that date. A lovely looking profit graph. I will show you in the accompanying video how to find selections.
The Layers.
There are 2 distinct staking plans for laying. The first is to lay to a £10 backer’s stake. Simply put, you are looking to WIN £10 if your horse loses.
The second staking plan is laying to a £10 fixed liability. Here, you are looking to control risk and maximise losses to £10 should the horse win the race and you, as the layer, lose.
3 runner races
It looks a simple angle. Over the last 10 years, and particularly since September 2019, laying the favourite in 3 runner middle distance races has been profitable. Counter-intuitive it may be (smaller field = easier to win?) 15.4 points profit has accrued since September 2019 laying to win £10 (our sample stake. For the layer this is called ‘Backer’s Stake.)
If you lay to a fixed liability (as these are 2 distinct methods of laying – in this case we lay to lose, say, £10) you can be rewarded if your favourite loses at particularly short odds. On the 21st of September 2020, for example, a favourite at odds of 1.07 decimal lost and the profit to £10 fixed liability was £135.72!
The 10 year profits for fixed liability layers turned £100 into £355.62 with a 48.1% strike rate.
4 runs in the last year.
This angle has really blossomed since July 2020 for the layer. The profit is inconsistent over 10 years, but are you willing to ‘ride the current wave’? £709 profit since July 2020 laying to a backer’s stake of £10 is very eye catching. £189 to £10 backer’s stake in 2023 can, I hope, continue into 2024’s turf flat season.
Lingfield.
This is the turf flat Lingfield, as opposed to the All Weather. Laying favourites in middle distances at Lingfield is profitable. £100 into £682 to £10 ‘backer’s stakes.
A 70.2% strike rate. A longest losing sequence of 5 opens the door for loss retrieval staking. Let me know if you want more detail.
Headgear B1
B stands for blinkers, and 1 stands for ‘blinkers for the first time’.
This type of headgear does not aid favourites in middle distance races. £100 into £461 to £10 backer’s stakes. A 76% strike rate, longest winning sequence of 29 and longest losing sequence of 4.
Trainer Andrew Balding.
Only 50 selections in 10 years in middle distance races but 45 of those have lost. Andrew Balding trained favourites may be layable. This is particularly apt since 1st October 2017 where £594 has been made laying favourites in middle distance races to £10 backer’s stake.
Fixed Liability has also profited if you want to control your risk. More in the accompanying video.
King Power Racing Co Ltd / Andrew Balding
Owners King Power and Trainer Andrew Balding don’t have much luck over middle distances with their favourites. An 82.6% strike rate for the layer. £100 into £300 to £10 backer’s stake. Only 3 selections in 2023 but plenty in previous years.
The problem with fewer selections in a given year is that it takes just one to win to leave you in deficit. Still, it is a very prominent long term pattern for this partnership.
Conclusion
Pay particular attention, I would suggest, to those angles which, over 10 years, have never produced a negative betting bank balance. It infers consistency. Examples include:
- Damsire Daylami – Backing
- Goodwood racecourse – Backing
- Jockey David Allan – Backing
- Trainer /Jockey combination Tim Easterby and David Allan – Backing
- Sheikh Mohammed Obaid Al Maktoum owner – Backing.
Clive Keeling
What Really Wins Money
