Research Corner – Late Summer Snippets
Hi All
Last time around we highlighted a trio of micro methods that looked worthy of following during the mid-season on the flat turf.
This time around we have moved the calendar on a notch to the late summer months of August and September.
We will be delving into the historical statistics over the most recent 5 years and where better to carry out this task than by turning to our trusty friend, the system builder over at www.horseracebase.com
The base line will be a winning strike of 20% or better over the 5-year period during August and September along with a minimum of 50 runners to hopefully provide a decent balance of activity and potential profits.
There are a select group of 5 trainers that meet the above criteria which are shown in the following table:
Without being disrespectful I wasn’t expecting Philip McBride to be amongst those five, so let’s take a closer look at the Newmarket-based yard.
Philip McBride
Clearly 2023 stands out and on closer inspection we find a 50/1 winner, Charming Whisper, which paid 85.00 on the Betfair SP, but only 2024 returned a level stakes loss at BFSP over the 5-year period.
Given the likely number of bets, it would seem worthy of a speculative punt just to follow the yard during the review period going forward.
Back the runners trained by Philip McBride when they run on the flat turf during the months of August and September.
If we now take a closer look at the remaining 4 yards in the original Table starting with Charlie Appleby.
Charlie Appleby
Given the yards’ high profile, it is understandable that their runners are over bet which can be seen by the slightly negative A/E.
The stable jockey, William Buick, rides the majority of the yards winners but adds to the over bet factor. Interestingly in recent times Charlie Appleby has engaged one up and coming jockey. Billy Loughnane along with an older guy, Dougie Costello, who was originally a jumps jockey before switching to the flat approximately a decade ago.
Back the runners trained by Charlie Appleby when they run on the flat turf during the months of August and September and are being ridden by either Billy Loughnane or Dougie Costello.
Moving on, next up is Owen Burrows.
Owen Burrows
The A/E over the latest 5 year period reads well and blindly backing the yards runners during August and September was profitable in 3 out of the 5 years.
If we take a closer look we find.
Clearly the potential route to profits is by homing in on those runners in non-handicaps.
Back the runners trained by Owen Burrows when they run on the flat turf during the months of August and September in non-handicap races.
Moving on
William Haggas
The last 3 years have seen quite an upturn in the P&L, which gives room for encouragement.
Although Tom Marquand is the primary jockey for William Haggas's stable, in recent times the booking of Cieren Fallon has proved to be fruitful, in particular in non-handicap races.
Back the runners trained by William Haggas when they run on the flat turf during the months of August and September in non-handicap races and are being ridden by Cieren Fallon.
And finally.
Ralph Beckett
Having taken a closer look along the lines of the previous 4 yards there doesn’t seem to be any nuggets to be had, small profits yes but possibly not enough return on investment to maintain an interest. With that in mind we will pass on this yard.
So, there we have it, 4 micro methods that will hopefully pay their way as the Flat Turf season moves into the months of August and September.
Steve Carter
