August Micro Systems
With June just at an end as I write this, our Micro Systems ended at a nice monthly profit of 19.49pts. If you’d told me at the start of the month, we’d end almost 20pts up then I’d have bitten your hand off. I’d happily take that any month! Ironically though they actually got off to a flying start, sitting at 53pts up after the first week! However, that’s the nature of a portfolio of micro systems, you never quite know what you’re going to get and when you’ll get it. The month could be struggling and then that flying week might have come on the last week of the month and roared into a 20pts of profit and it would have felt different even though the end result was the same.
The bottom line though is that however it ends up coming any month that ends in profit must be viewed as a successful month and the daily/weekly fluctuations are just that.
The longest losing run for the month has been 14 bets. It didn’t fall at the start and actually came when the month was well in profit. However, had it been the first 14 bets how many people would just give it up as a bad job? It’s a natural human response after all.
The portfolio for the month ended with a win strike rate of 21.74% and there were 161 bets for the month. Using the excellent longest losing run calculator on the oncourseprofits website this suggests we could expect a longest losing run of 18.79 and a longest winning run of 3.02. We’ve had losing runs of the aforementioned 14 as well as a 10 and a couple of 7’s and 8’s. The longest winning runs have been one of three and two in a row on three occasions.
Expected wins stands at 28.88 (based off of BSP) and we managed 35 wins in total, giving us a very respectable A/E of 1.21. All in all, I’d be more than happy to have those results every month even though it ended up a fair bit lower than its high point.
For August I’m going to stay with the same approach as I did for July’s Micro Systems which was published on the 23rd June, which of course as I write this are yet to run! When writing that article I did decide to run that approach for June as well as I had a couple of days left in which to get the systems worked out. To say I’m excited to see how they do in July is an understatement if June’s is anything to go by.
The results were as follows. 11 systems in total, 203 bets, 42 wins (20.69%), 91 places (44.83%). Profit was a staggering 76.03pts on wins and 19.21pts on places. A/E’s were 122.2 on win and 112.8 on place. There was also a rather gutting stewards enquiry when Cindy Lou Who “Won” at a BSP of 35.12 at Leicester on the 14/6 and indeed initially got paid out in error before I knew of the steward’s enquiry. Only to get overturned and my balance corrected! Such is life!
Will July be anything like that with the new approach? I have no idea but I can’t wait to find out.
August then.
First up will be all the Trainers who have had at least 20 wins over the last three August’s (2022, 2023 and 2024) on the Flat.
This gives us 25 to work with. Below is the list of all jockeys who show a profit when riding for any of those trainers during those months.
Now we’ll go through each trainer using just those jockeys as our base and see what we can find.
First up is Charlie Appleby
And we have our first micro system for July. I’m not even going to look for any further filters.
The horseracebase settings are:
Next up is Andrew Balding
Our first filter is to select Hornby, Levey, Moore, Osborne and Queally as our jockeys.
A check of race type gives us this.
We’ll remove the three race types that have shown no winners for the past three August’s.
A second promising little micro system!
Ralph Beckett next
A look at position in the weights throws up a filter.
Those joint bottom whilst having a decent strike rate are far from profitable and the average win is pretty small suggesting only those fancied are among the winners. It’s also an opportunity to remove a big chunk of runners and reduce our system to a more manageable size.
A look through the jockeys has led me to remove Hornby from our list. He is profitable but his A/E is a rather poor 0.79 and a couple of half decent winners are the only reason he is in profit. His strike rate is also only 12%
A look at Race Type now
Non Handicap and Maidens whilst far from poor would appear to be unprofitable angles here.
All this leaves us here.
Another promising looking one with possibly around a bet per day on average.
You can view more systems by checking out our Horse Racing Betting Systems Archives
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