February Micro Systems
2026 has just begun and here I am working on February’s Micro systems, as if the time didn’t go fast enough as it is! First though, time to take a breath and look back at how our December’s systems have got on.
The first point of interest is that we finally found our big winner on Joseph O’Brien!! It’s been something of a quest so it was great to see one finally go in! Glen To Glen winning at 32.00 BSP on the 7th December! There’s more to the O’Brien story as well.
On the 27th and 28th of December he had five qualifiers showing across the two days. I put the bets on and they were listed as qualifiers on the OCP jury’s out qualifier lists as well so hopefully anyone doing them got on them as well. As it turned out on both days there were presumably jockey changes as they were not ridden by any of our jockeys on the system. However, this worked out very nice for us because two more winners went in! A 9.97 BSP and a 34.34 BSP!
I didn’t even find out about the jockey changes until checking the system profits a couple of days later only to find those five qualifiers weren’t listed and I had to go and check the results to see why. I’ll take it as what’s owed from chasing the big Joseph O’Brien winner the last few months! So, the figures in the table below do not include those two wins because I’m not going to claim extra profit when those five horses actually weren’t legitimate qualifiers in the end even though I and hopefully you picked them up as a very nice bonus!
Elsewhere across December’s micro systems Jonjo O’Neill’s horses found some form at last, picking up some nice winners at BSP’s of 7.45, 11.11 and 17.71. Dan Skelton chipped in with a 21.50 and Gary and Josh Moore notched one at 18.04 as well in what was a bumper month that ended with a win profit of 42.36 points!
Add in those five O’Brien runners with their two wins if you were on them and you’d have seen a total profit of over 80 points.
There were, as always, a few disappointments along the way as is the nature with these micro systems. The Nicholls system mustered just 1 win from 11, Fergal O’Brien slightly worse with 1 from 14 and Olly Murphy 0 from 9, the system somehow successfully avoiding his many wins in December!
This gives us four very pleasing systems to carry forward for December 2026.
On now to see what micro systems we can find for February.
Our trainer list this month is all those trainers who have had at least 15 wins or more in total across the last three February’s and have a winning strike rate above 17%.
Our jockey list is all those who have had at least one win for any of the above trainers are as follows.
First up is Charlie Appleby but despite what is an excellent strike rate he had a losing year last year and any filtering just leaves minimal bets for no real profit, so we will leave him.
Ben Pauling is up next.
That is not a bad place to start, although it seems unlikely that 2023 will get into profit regardless of filters. However, the last two years look very good.
We’ll start with seems to be a very obvious filter. Wearing a tongue tie has evidently not worked as hoped for.
If we then stick to main stable jockey Ben Jones as well then, we get the following.
Two very successful February’s for the Jones/Pauling partnership. For the record the tongue tie being worn is still a valid filter here as well with just one placed from six rides with this partnership.
Longest Losing Winning Run: 6
Longest Losing Place Run: 2
Next on our list is Willie Mullins.
First port of call, as it often is for Mullins, is to look at the Handicap / Non Handicap Split and I’m not at all surprise to see what it shows.
If we order race types by strike rate, we can see that everything that is 25% or less is showing a loss.
Things are looking good now but there are still a lot of bets. Not the worst news for a Willie Mullins system but in the context of an intended micro system it’s a lot.
We can remove those wearing a tongue tie and that will get rid of 27 bets from our total as well as increasing our profit in the process.
A look at our jockeys shows that Mr PW Mullins and MP Walsh are both showing a loss and on closer inspection they show losses for each of the three years. We’ll also remove Rachael Blackmore and Daryl Jacob whilst we’re here as they are both now retired.
That brings us down to close to a one bet per day average which is much more manageable.
Longest Losing Winning Run: 4
Longest Losing Place Run: 3
Andrew Balding is next to look at and we start from a very encouraging position.
Headgear doesn’t appear to show a lot of success so I think we’ll just remove all of them and stick with no headgear worn.
A look at race age restrictions shows us that races for 3 year olds is where he has had the least success. A look at it in isolation showed that it has produced a loss in each of our three years.
This leaves us here. The profit in the past two years has been the result of two very good wins, one in each year, so I would advise caution with this one.
Longest Losing Winning Run: 5
Longest Losing Place Run: 4
Charlie Johnston is up next and it’s another good starting position.
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