Statman Reborn
There is no point in beating about the bush this month, no-one has any interest in anything outside the Cheltenham Festival, and that means I need to think outside the box and look for a different article that covers what is, for many, the most important race meeting of this and any other year.
Concept
I have thought long and hard about how to play this with so much at stake, and although we could go into ridiculous depth, we need to keep this as simple and easy to use as possible.
All avenues are open, but we are looking to find some winners and/or make a profit, so we will only list those roads that have, historically, led to winners, whatever that entails.
The Data
Data is recorded from 1st March 2014 to the end of last year’s Festival unless annotated otherwise.
There is zero need to even mention races that are no use to us, or have eked out a profit in pennies, and I am going to take the chance to cherry-pick on this occasion, with very good reason.
Any profit/loss figures are shown to a £1 stake and assume a standards Betfair commission of 2%.
The Presentation
Tables as always when I can – they put the facts in front of us all to do with as we see fit, and if we can enjoy the best racing on the planet bar none (Yes, I am biased), AND walk away with an increased betting bank, then that will do for me!
It may look a big higgledy-piggledy for once (I am trying something new), but the details we need will be here for you to agree (or disagreed with) accordingly.
Overview – all races, backing the favourite (or joint/co-favourite):
| Runners | Winners | Strike Rate | Profit/Loss to Betfair SP | Profit/Loss to Industry SP | Longest Winning Run (LWR) | Longest Losing Run (LLR) |
| 305 | 84 | 27.54% | -£17.86 | -£42.94 | 6 | 16 |
There goes one myth – follow the jollies blindly and you will lose (some) of your betting bank. A good strike rate though and worth looking at a little further.
Handicaps v Non-Handicaps
Handicaps
| Runners | Winners | Strike Rate | Profit/Loss to Betfair SP | Profit/Loss to Industry SP | Longest Winning Run (LWR) | Longest Losing Run (LLR) |
| 117 | 15 | 12.82% | -£28.92 | -£39.67 | 2 | 40 |
Non-Handicaps
| Runners | Winners | Strike Rate | Profit/Loss to Betfair SP | Profit/Loss to Industry SP | Longest Winning Run (LWR) | Longest Losing Run (LLR) |
| 188 | 69 | 36.70% | +£11.06 | -£3.27 | 4 | 12 |
Nothing earth shattering to report, but a profit of sorts (5.88% return on investment), suggesting if you are a favourite backer, non-handicaps are your races to concentrate on.
Next, we will have a look at the trainers’ records…by profit (Willie Mullins has had the most winners, but if you backed all his horses blindly, you would have lost over 30 points in the last decade).
Trainer (minimum 10 runners and three winners to qualify) all races – top five by profit.
| Trainer | Runners | Winners | Strike Rate | Profit/Loss to Betfair SP | Profit/Loss to Industry SP | Longest Winning Run (LWR) | Longest Losing Run (LLR) |
| Gordon Elliott | 305 | 34 | 11.15% | +£166.78 | +£67.40 | 2 | 43 |
| Noel Meade | 48 | 3 | 6.25% | +£146.19 | +£82.00 | 1 | 20 |
| Henry De Bromhead | 166 | 18 | 10.84% | +£135.99 | +£7.03 | 1 | 35 |
| Rebecca Curtis | 41 | 3 | 7.32% | +£106.45 | +£35.00 | 1 | 27 |
| Dan Skelton | 116 | 6 | 5.17% | +£66.35 | -£5.00 | 1 | 49 |
| TOTALS | 676 | 64 | 9.47% | +£621.76 | +£186.43 | N/A | N/A |
The first thing to mention is the horrendous losing runs of all the trainers concerned – up to 49 – another stark reminder of just how competitive the racing is at Cheltenham.
Not a bad return on investment though at 91.97%, or 9.2% per annum.
Next stop, handicaps v non-handicaps once more…
Handicaps
| Trainer | Runners | Winners | Strike Rate | Profit/Loss to Betfair SP | Profit/Loss to Industry SP | Longest Winning Run (LWR) | Longest Losing Run (LLR) |
| Dan Skelton | 76 | 5 | 6.58% | +£93.69 | +£24.00 | 1 | 31 |
| Gordon Elliott | 166 | 14 | 8.43% | +£73.50 | +£33.50 | 2 | 28 |
| A J Martin | 17 | 3 | 17.65% | +£47.39 | +£27.00 | 1 | 7 |
| Paul Nicholls | 121 | 7 | 5.79% | +£14.02 | -£13.00 | 1 | 43 |
| TOTALS | 380 | 29 | 7.63% | +£228.60 | +£71.50 | N/A | N/A |
The fact that only four current trainers qualify tells its own story about the difficulty with the handicaps! Paul Nicholls presence came as a surprise to me, but although the numbers are pretty skinny at first glance, a combined return on investment of close to 61% is not to be sniffed at.
Non-Handicaps
| Trainer | Runners | Winners | Strike Rate | Profit/Loss to Betfair SP | Profit/Loss to Industry SP | Longest Winning Run (LWR) | Longest Losing Run (LLR) |
| Henry De Bromhead | 114 | 16 | 14.04% | +£154.76 | +£30.03 | 1 | 23 |
| Gordon Elliott | 139 | 20 | 14.39% | +£93.28 | +£33.90 | 3 | 22 |
| Gavin Cromwell | 14 | 4 | 28.57% | +£53.11 | +£36.00 | 2 | 3 |
| David Pipe | 34 | 3 | 8.82% | +£23.44 | +£9.50 | 1 | 23 |
| Jonjo O’Neill | 22 | 3 | 13.64% | +£9.13 | +£3.50 | 2 | 14 |
| TOTALS | 323 | 46 | 14.24% | +£332.72 | +£112.93 | N/A | N/A |
The fact that Irish trainers fill the front three tells its own story, but the overall picture here is worth a second look and then some.
An ROI of 103% is very impressive for a meeting like Cheltenham. Jockeys seem the natural next on the list option…
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