November Acorns – National Hunt Trainers
Well the 2019 flat season is all but finished. Our attention now turns to the winter jumps game.
The National Hunt season really takes off during November. We have Cheltenham’s second meeting of the winter jumps season. It’s a three-day meeting which begins on Friday 15th November. The feature races are the BetVictor Gold Cup and the valuable Greatwood Handicap Hurdle.
Later in the month it’s the Grade 1 Betfair Chase whose recent winners include the likes of Kauto Star, Cue Card, Silviniaco Conti and Bristol De Mai.
November ends with the Ladbrokes Winter Carnival at Newbury and the highlight, is the Ladbroke Trophy Handicap Chase (formerly the Hennessey Gold Cup). It’s one of jumps racings big handicap chases of the season and has been won by some true greats in recent years in Denman, Many Clouds & Native River.
Plenty of high-class jumps racing to enjoy during the month and lots of betting opportunities.
For plenty of punters trainers are the starting point for analysing a race. With that in mind let’s look at those trainers who have provided profitable stat pointers.
As ever the excellent www.horseracebase.com with its mine of detailed information and stats is the starting point for this month’s investigation.
To get a decent sample size and to keep the stats as relevant as possible, I have concentrated on the top trainers in Britain, and taken only their results from 2015 onwards.
Starting with Champion Trainer Paul Nicholls.
1. Paul Nicholls:
Here’s his record year by year:
The trainer has a 23%-win strike rate overall since the start of 2015. That’s an excellent strike rate but if you had backed all his runners you would have lost £309.43 to a £1 level stake.
That’s no good for
us. So, what are the trainers’ most profitable angles?
Let’s begin by looking at his top seven most winning tracks:
The standout track is clearly Fontwell. Now let’s look at race type:
It’s chasers that he does well with.
Breaking that record down further by non-handicap and handicaps.
There’s profit over hurdles and fences.
If you had backed all his Fontwell chasers, you would have made £15.11 profit to a £1 level stake.
System 92: Back Paul Nicholls Chasers at Fontwell
Other areas of profit are his chasers & hurdlers dropping back in trip from their previous run:
That’s a tidy profit of a £51.43 to a £1 Level stake. We can dig a bit further and look at track last time:
Two tracks standout Ascot & Exeter and such qualifiers are performing 34% better than market expectations.
System 93: Back Paul Nicholls chasers & hurdlers, down in trip of between 5f and 1 ½ f whose last race came at Ascot & Exeter.
A final angle to note is the trainer’s handicap runners that pulled up on their last start.
A 22%-win strike rate for pulled up horses on their previous run is not to be sniffed at.
Breaking it down by NH race type.
Hurdlers do better than chasers but both race types have been profitable. Key takeaway here is don’t be too concerned if a Nicholls handicap chaser or hurdler has pulled up on their last start.
System 94: Back Paul Nicholls Handicap runners that pulled up on their previous start.
2. Nicky Henderson.
Nicky Henderson has an even better win-strike rate than Paul Nicholls with 1 in 4 of his runners winning. Mind you wouldn’t have made any money backing his runners indeed you would have lost £343.79 to a £1 Level Stake if you had backed them all.
So, what angles can we exploit to make a profit from the trainer’s runners?
Let’s begin by looking at his most profitable racecourses.
He doesn’t send many runners to Catterick, Newcastle or Kelso but take note of any he does as he has a 100% place strike at all three tracks and a 105% win ROI on these runners.
That’s a pretty staggering record by any measure.
System 95: Back Nicky Henderson trained runners at Catterick, Kelso & Newcastle.
His most profitable track is Warwick and if you follow his chasers & hurdlers which are 12/1 & under you shouldn’t go too far wrong.
System 96: Back Nicky Henderson trained chaser & hurdlers at Warwick 12/1 & under.
Other Henderson angles worth noting are his runners either making their debut under rules or having their first start in the UK.
A 33%-win strike rate for those runners and a tidy profit.
Now that’s too many qualifiers for this article. However, digging a bit further we can find an even better micro angle by focusing on race type:
It’s his hurdlers & chasers that have provided all the profit.
A very healthy 46%-win strike rate and such runners are performing 56% better than market expectations.
System 97: Back Nicky Henderson trained chasers & hurdlers having their first start in the UK.
3. Dan Skelton
Next up is Dan Skelton.
Let’s begin by looking at the trainers’ record by track:
Two tracks standout Uttoxeter & Leicester.
Starting with Uttoxeter and digging further by race type.
It’s his hurdlers that have provided all the profit.
If you ignore his hurdlers in Class 2 races – 1 winner from 11 runners -9 5 placed – and concentrate on hurdlers ridden by brother Harry has provided the following:
Such qualifiers have performed 48% better than market expectations and have also provided punters with a £79.36 profit to a £1 level stake.
System 98: Back Dan Skelton trained hurdlers at Uttoxeter in class 3, 4 or 5 races when ridden by Harry Skelton.
Looking at his Leicester record:
Focusing in on distance move.
You can ignore his runners stepping up in distance by 1f or more from their last run – 0 winners from 9 runners 3 placed.
System 99: Back Dan Skelton trained runners at Leicester not stepping up in distance by more than ½ f.
4. Colin Tizzard
Colin Tizzard has a 14%-win strike rate and you would have lost plenty of money backing his runners blind in the past 5-years.
So, what micro angles can we exploit for the Dorset based trainer.
Let’s begin by look at his most profitable tracks.
His best tracks from a profit perspective are Aintree & Ffos Las.
At Aintree all his winners have come in Class 1 races.
He’s 0 winners from 15 runners -15 3 placed with his runners in other race classes.
In Class 1 races a cracking 30%-win strike rate and qualifiers performing a massive 248% better than market expectations.
Interestingly all but one of his winners came at the Grand National Meeting.
System 100: Back Colin Tizzard runners at Aintree in Class 1 one races only.
At Ffos Las he’s operating at 33%-win strike rate.
System 32: Back Colin Tizzard trained runners at Ffos Las.
Other interesting micro angles are the trainer’s chasers at Newbury. A decent 25% win-strike rate.
You can improve that by avoiding any qualifiers that are stepping up in distance by 2f or more from their last race.
A near 36%-win strike rate and offering punters with plenty of value too.
System 33: Back Colin Tizzard trained chasers at Newbury, not stepping up distance more than 2f or more from their last race.
Another angle to note are the Tizzard runners in Class 4 or 5 races that are stepping up in trip 4f to 1m and racing in the same class as last time.
This angle has produced the following set of results.
System 34: Back Colin Tizzard trained runners in Class 4 or 5 races only, racing in the same class as last time and stepping up in distance between 4f & 1m.
5. Philip Hobbs
The final of our five trainers. Newbury is a track that he likes to run his horses at and he’s operating at a 22%-win strike rate with his hurdlers.
It’s probably best to concentrate on his younger hurdlers with his 4yo to 6yo’s producing the following set of results:
Eight of those winners from 32 runners +87.3 came between November & January.
System 35: Back Philip Hobbs trained 4yo to 6yo hurdlers at Newbury.
Other possible angles for the Hobbs stable are in runners in beginners’ chases. He doesn’t have many runners in that race type but they have produced:
System 36: Back Philip Hobbs trained runners in beginners’ chases.
There you have it, some profitable micro angles from arguably Britain’s five top National Hunt trainers. Like many of these methods. The above figures are based on historic data and whilst history has a good habit of repeating itself, it often doesn’t.
Until next month.John Burke
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