Intuition in Betting

Having A Hunch – The Importance of Intuition in Betting

I’m sure you will have seen the Betway advertising campaign, designed by Saatchi & Saatchi and the notion of ‘having a hunch’ and sticking to that hunch when discussing sports betting outcomes.

The ‘hunch’ is a universal concept in betting, it’s that ‘gut feeling’ that something will or should happen. Many ‘casual” bettors choose their bets through “gut feeling” about what they think will happen during an event.

In this article I’m going to look at the role of intuition when it comes to betting on the horses and why it should play a part in your decision making.

Should you really trust your intuition when investing in sports bet?

Now too many people placing a bet on a mere feeling sounds' the ultimate in recklessness. But is it?

How often have you heard someone say, “I have a good feeling about this business opportunity”? If you watch the BBC Series Dragons Den you will know what I mean. The Dragon’s know deep down there is more to a business investment than just cold statistical analysis.

They have that little voice in their head whispering to them, “this crazy idea could change the world”. 

That little voice is the ‘voice of intuition’. Artists use it all the time and so do billionaires. Apple’s current CEO, Tim Cook has said, “There are times in all of our lives when a reliance on gut or intuition just seems more appropriate – when a particular course of action just feels right”.

Hey, if it’s a good maxim for the boss of Apple maybe it’s something punters need to take on board to. Without intuition you will almost certainly miss out on plenty of profitable opportunities.  But the question remains.

Can you really trust your intuition? And just as importantly how does it work?

Henri Bergson On Intuition

Here’s where French philosopher Henri Bergson comes in. A large part of his intellectual work was dedicated to answering those two questions.

In the early part of the 20th century Bergson wrote that human thinking involved much more than intellect, which is a purely analytic tool. Putting it simply the intellect simplifies reality for practical reasons.

In business or, for the purpose of this article, sport betting this thinking leads to an obsession with figures. Now these figures are useful but all the excel charts, speed figures and the stride patterns of a horse only offer an arbitrary and partial picture.

Intuition can come across as intellectual laziness. For Bergson, however, it’s quite the opposite: far from being a mere “instinct” or “feeling”, he likened intuition to an effort. Intuition, he thought, stimulated the intellect, which would otherwise idly apply ready-made methods. 

In business, intellect works well at identifying those small innovations which improve a product but tends to miss the radical ideas that can change an entire industry.

Unfortunately, modern society would rather we work with our intellect than develop our intuition. Intuition requires taking a step back and listening to yourself.

That doesn’t mean you can throw away the calculator just yet: according to Bergson, intellect and intuition are not only compatible they complement each other.

What is Gut Feeling?

Every decision we make, even the smallest of choices, are defined and directed by a whole array of factors and there even being made without conscious intent. The Max Planck Institute for Human Cognitive and Brain Sciences in Leipzig, found that brain activity predicts the decision a person will make up to 7 seconds before it’s made.

Throughout the day, we make decisions instinctively and quickly, without going through complicated, logical or mathematical strategies. Indeed clinical studies have shown that our minds are hard at work even when we’re a sleep, setting priorities for when we come out of our slumber.

Maybe one day we’ll find out where intuition comes from. For now, all we do know is that our ability to make instinctive decisions based upon it is one of our more successful skills

Whether you believe in making decisions purely using data or trust your intuition we are still learning about the choices we make and why we make them.

Ignoring Your Gut Feeling Can be Costly

The key to successful horse racing betting is of course logical analysis. But one shouldn’t disregard intuition.

In “Blink: The Power of Thinking Without Thinking” Canadian sociologist Malcolm Gladwell, writes that we have the capacity to determine what’s most important in a short amount of time, and he named that ability “intuitive intelligence.”

Malcolm Gladwell writes about legendary tennis coach Vic Braden who had an uncanny knack of being able to predict when a tennis player would produce a double fault even before the ball had hit the racket. Yet at the same time Braden couldn’t say how he came to that conclusion, it was just an instant judgement

When watching a tennis match, Braden correctly called 16 out of 17 double faults before they happened. Clearly Braden had seen millions of serves and could intuitively spot the signs of a double fault before the error happened. He was also able to calculate the chance of a double fault by analysing a player’s swing and comparing it to the countless service attempts he had seen before.

In fact, our first thoughts on the outcome of a horse race can often be the most successful.  I’m writing this article on the weekend of the Cesarewitch at Newmarket and the Irish version. The winner at Newmarket was Stratum trained by Willie Mullins. When I first looked at the race, I had the horse as one for my betting shortlist. However, after I had analysed the race and looked at the data, I omitted him on the day. Of course, he went on and won.

Likewise, my first scan of the final declarations for the Irish Cesarewitch I was drawn to Royal Illusion. Once again having analysed the race more deeply he came off my list of bets. Of course, he went onto win easily.

There you go two examples of where my ‘gut feeling’, or ‘hunch’ was overruled by the data. My intuition that ability to understand something immediately, without the need for conscious reasoning; that ability to unconsciously make quick and accurate decisions was ignored.

I hadn’t gone with my inner Braden.

A year or so back I wrote an article for OCP magazine, on how too much information can impede successful decision making. Excessive amounts of information can also get in the way of our natural intuitive intelligence.

Don’t Throw The Calculator Away Just Yet…

I don’t want to give the impression that it promises easy money, far from it and it doesn’t make sense purely to rely on it either. Why because instinct isn’t always a solid basis for decision making. No successful professional punter relies solely on gut feeling if they do it will soon lead to bankruptcy.

Harness Your Intuition

Intuition allows experienced punters to quickly draw conclusions about a race faster that their less knowledgeable ones.

How can you use it? First take a step back from the figures. Start to listen to that little voice a bit more. Don’t ignore it!  After all you can go back to the stats later.

Avoid overcomplicating thought processes.  All they do is reassure you or help you cover your own back if your horse loses.

In summary:

As Henri Bergson pointed out in the early 20th century we need to combine intuition with intellect.  A combination of those two approaches leads to successful betting. All successful punters use intuition to some extent.  It’s a key part of why they are successful but the only do so in conjunction with good preparation.

Whilst a betting strategy built solely around intuition, is unlikely to prove successful over the long term there’s a strong argument that you can’t be successful without it either.

Next month I will be back to part three of my series on improving your punting looking at misleading stats.  Until then, just trust your gut a bit more!

John Burke