UK Horse Racing Betting Strategy
You’ve probably landed in this page because you are looking for the best horse racing betting strategy or maybe an official ratings horse racing system
There are many factors that need to be considered to fully assess a horse’s chance of winning and we have outlined them below.
We have also included some quick and easy methods that will make you a profit while you learn the detailed strategy.
We will outline a complete strategy for operating your own profitable horse racing betting strategy, we talk about what we know which is UK horse racing but the principles apply to racing everywhere.
Horse Racing Basics
If you already know the basics skip ahead to the Key Factors section.
Reading the Race-card
This video will run you through a standard race course race card
Race Class
Horse races are classified into classes and the class indicates what level of horse is allowed to compete.
This allows horses with lesser ability to have the opportunity to race and to win. Think of it I suppose as if you were an athlete, you might be able to win a county competition, but would not be competitive at the national or international level.
Every horse will have an Official Rating (OR) this is allocated based on their past performances.
I have set out the classes below and the OR will determine which races a horse can run in.
Class 1 – Official Ratings 96+. Features Classics and subdivided into Groups 1, 2 and 3
Class 2 – Official Ratings range from 86-100, 91-105, 96-110
Class 3 – Official Ratings range from 76-90 and 81-95
Class 4 – Official Ratings range from 66-80 and 71-85
Class 5 – Official Ratings range from 56-70 and 61-75
Class 6 – Official Ratings range from 46-60 and 51-65
Class 7 – Official Ratings range from 0-45
The key thing to consider when looking for winner is that a jump up in class is hard to make, a jump of two or more classes is very hard and you may want to see if you agree with the OR allocated before backing a horse that is running two classes higher than it's previous race.
At it's simplest an official ratings horse racing system is just one that selects horses that are better than their official rating.
Understanding the Going
Going refers to the condition of the ground that the horses will be racing on.
Firm is when the ground is very dry and rock solid, many horses can't run well on Firm ground, it jars the hooves and is painful, but some run better on firm ground.
At the other end of the scale is Heavy. Heavy ground is when the ground is very wet and a hoof gets sucked in. Again many horses can't run to their best in heavy ground.
The Clerk of the Course will declare the going for a race meeting, many wise punters do not trust the official going and will make their own assessment.
The key factor when looking for a winner is to see if the best horse has won or run well on today's going.
Here are the official going classifications for turf racing in the UK.
Firm
Very dry, hard ground can result in faster times from the horses that relish it.
Good to firm
On the slower side of firm. Often the racecourse staff will water a firm track to get to good to firm or good.
Good
The most common type of ground and arguably the fairest for the majority of horses.
Good to soft
Often occurring in the winter months, good to soft ground is mostly good ground but which is also holding a fair bit of water.
Soft
Mostly seen during the National Hunt season when the weather is colder and wetter. The ground is deeper and moister. Some horses prefer this going.
Heavy
A real test of a racehorse’s stamina and only very few horses relish this type of ground. Boggy and sticky.
Ratings
We've already talked about the Official Rating of a horse, that is the rating given by the British Horse Racing Authority (BHA) handicapper.
But there are many other ratings produced by various organisations and individuals that can be useful.
The Racing Post has it's own rating (RPR) which is another weight carried rating like the OR.
It also has the TS rating which is a time based rating.
These ratings can be overbet because they are so popular and you may be better using a less well known rating, we like the Inform Racing speed ratings and Peter May's SR rating at Geegeez
Racecourse Types
As you get to work with your form study and gain experience you will realise that a big factor in finding a winner is ensuring that the best horse in the race is also the best horse for the prevailing conditions.
We've mentioned the going and talked about class and now we talk about racecourses.
Every racecourse is different some are wide open and galloping, some are tight with sharp turns and less room.
Some ride clockwise and some anti-clockwise and there are horses that don't run well when going the ‘wrong' way.
When you are considering a bet check that the horse has either run well at today's course or at a similar course.
You can find a classification of UK course types/styles here
The Key Factors
We've covered off the basics, so let's run through the key factors that you might consider when assessing a race. I'll also link you up with an article that proposes that you make things simple and only consider 5 factors when assessing a race.
Horse Ability and Current Form
This is just common sense but you want to know is the horse you are considering good enough to win, does it have the ability and is it running well at the moment.
Like all athletes horses train in cycles, nobody can be at peak form all season, your professional athlete will aim to be in peak form at the most important time and in good enough form when they are trying to qualify for the big event.
Horses are the same they come in and out of form. Ratings and wins in similar races will tell you if the horse has the ability and recent ratings and recent wins will tell you if it has current form.
An increase in form in recent runs would suggest that your fancy is coming into form.
Here's a checklist
Is the horse a winner
Pretty straightforward has the horse won before, does it like winning. Some horses don't like to be in front, you'll find these types in lower class races, when they win they only win by a head. Of course not all winners have won before every one has a first time but make sure your fancy looks capable of winning if it hasn't done so already.
Let's not forgive too many missed opportunities.
Has it won at today's class
Not essential but a good sign if it has. There are punters who love a horse that has come down in class and there are those that look for improving types who are on the upgrade.
Whatever your view make sure you consider the class of race today and the class your fancy has run and won in before.
Has it won at today's distance
Like human athletes some horses are built for speed and some are built for stamina, as time goes on you'll get to know the horses you follow and you'll get a feel for what distances suit a horse. When you're starting out check for some good form at today's distance.
Has it won at today's course
We've mentioned racecourses and course types earlier so not much more to say other than check your horse has run well at today's course or a course with a similar layout and type.
Has it won on today's going
Again we've mentioned going earlier you will want to be on a horse that has proven ability on today's going. Many a big priced win has been landed when the going is at the extremes, especially when it's ‘Heavy'.
A great deal of horses cannot run to form on heavy going and there are a smaller number that look to have less ability but when the going gets heavy the stamina horses can deliver at big odds.
Has it shown signs of improvement
How do you know if a horse is improving? Well there are a few obvious signs, it's ratings may be on the up, it may have won easily or run up a winning sequence.
These signs of improvement will usually result in favouritism and short prices. Less obvious sign are well less obvious but if you watch races and I recommend that you watch as much as you can, then from time to time you will spot a horse that has been unlucky.
Maybe it blocked in on a tight flat course or maybe it was brought down when looking like a winner. When you spot an unlucky horse you add that to your notebook and make sure to have a close look next time it's out.
Is the horse well handicapped
In a handicap race each horse carries a weight depending on its ability. The idea being that every horse in the handicapped race has an equal chance of winning.
The weight is allocated based on the Official Rating and the rating is allocated by the BHA handicapper who can be tricked.
Jockey Ability and Current Form
As with horses we want to know that the jockey is in good form. In the main whichever jockey os on board they can do the job on a horse that is well in on all other factors.
But jockey's like horses go through bad patches when they don't seem to be able to catch a winner and it takes a strong will to not let a poor run affect performance.
So if nothing else check your jockeys recent strike rate and make sure there are no red flags.
While you're checking see if they have a good record at this racecourse and at the distance.
Trainer Form
Stables can also come in and out of form, some operate at their best at certain times in the season. For example some flat trainers will be rearing to go and ready to bag some easy winners as soon as spring has sprung at the beginning of April, others are gearing up for the classic season and aren't really firing until the Guineas meeting in May.
Another possibility is a bit of sickness in the yard knocking the edge off of all the runners.
As time goes on you will get to know the cycles of the trainers you follow but make it a rule to always check the recent strike rate of the trainer you are considering betting.
Other factors to consider are does the trainer have a good record at this racecourse and how many horses are running at the course for the trainer today and how far is he sending them.
If a trainer is sending one horse from the Cotswolds up to Edinburgh for a low grade race he's probably lost the plot but it maybe he needs a win for the horse and he thinks he's found a sure thing.
There are other factors to consider in your quest to be a profitable gambler and I've listed some of those below with links out to other articles where you can continue your journey.
How a top tipster finds his selections