The New Approach
Over the years, we all have ideas, and we sometimes write them down or perhaps run some analysis and occasionally, we actually put them into practice. Something I have been guilty of though, is actually not reviewing and looking at these thoughts and angles and thinking, what if I put A with B or X with Y or even A with B and Y.
My current main focus is writing systems that use three different ratings from three very different time periods of my systems development evolution, but it is only recently I have been able to store them together in the Proform User Ratings fields and see what the impact of using them together might be. I am able to check historical results back to 1st July 2016 on one rating (my own specific race rating) and to 27th July 2021 for the newest rating (PRB) and things looks good!
Back in 2014, I started to incorporate the Proform Power Rating into many of my systems and especially when combined with the Proform Last Time Out Speed Rating, it had some excellent results.
The Power Rating is calculated based on many factors, including (in no particular order), Trainer stats, Jockey Stats, Horse stats, Speed Rating, Official Rating, Course and Distance stats etc. etc. Backing the Top Ranked Power Horse in every race for the last 5 years shows a 25% strike rate and a similar strike rate in the time frame that I am checking here.
However, during that time, the ROI is around minus 2%.
A couple of years later, I decided I wanted to rate each horse in each race, based on a smaller selection of factors, namely past speed and official ratings at the course or a course with similar characteristics (e.g. flat, galloping, stiff, undulating or any combination of), previous speed on the reported going and at the distance, previous course (or similar course) wins and/or places, weight when winning/placing versus weight today, class movements and results in the class of the race today and finally, current trainer and jockey form.
It is a fairly simple rating, but combined with the Power Rating, the strike rate when both are top rated jumps to 30% with a positive ROI of just under 1%.
This is an example of a race from yesterday (Monday 27th February) that shows a clear example:
Ardera Cross was clear Proform Top Rated and was also my top rated and had lots of positive factors. The horse won convincingly at 13/2.
Then, in July 2021, I created a new Percentage of Rivals Beaten (PRB) Rating and I am now storing that in my own database and exporting it to Proform too.
Again, it is based on the horse’s performance at the course, a similar course, at the distance, on the going and in the class and it is also a simple rating.
The strike rate when all three are top rank is now 36%.
However, we are now back to a negative ROI, albeit a small one again.
Below is a recent example, though there are not too many where a horse has all three as top rank:
Again, the horse won, this time only by a head though, but at 5/1, it was still a nice winner!
Using the three ratings, I have now developed several systems, the first of which is the Value Bets that I am posting each day via Winning Systems and for OCP Gold and Platinum members. You can upgrade your account here.
These bets select horses that are ranked in the top 5 Proform Power Rating and the top 3 for the Race Rank and PRB Rank. They also only select those horses that are deemed to be Value at 7:30am (based on a Tissue Price calculated using the Proform Power rating).
The results of those bets have been nothing short of extraordinary (120 points profit in the first 36 days), but only time will tell if they will continue to be so successful. So many of the horses are out running their odds though and the historic (20 months) win/place strike rate is around 35%, with the average win odds of those winning or placing around 11.0 (BSP odds).
Therefore, ensuring that backing to place as well as win, will smooth losing runs and drawdown.
Everything points to it being an excellent strategy and a very profitable system.
As the Flat Turf season is almost upon us, I have also looked at a new system to add to the Winning Systems portfolio, to complement the existing 4 systems that performed so well last year.
The new one focuses on the three ratings in Non Handicap races and once again, the results since 27th July 2021 look superb:
After a disappointing A/W and NH campaign for Winning Systems, over the summer, I will be having an overhaul in that sphere. I will create some NH and A/W systems using the new ratings (I already have several running to see how they perform in the remaining few weeks). Together with those that have performed very well during the OCP Trial since October, I intend to have a very different set of systems and a year round portfolio that cannot be equalled.
And one VERY important aspect to remember here is, these ratings are UNIQUE. Only the Proform Power Rating is in the public domain and only then to Proform members. The other 2 ratings have been created by me and are only available to me.
This time next year Rodney!
Kieran O’Hagan
Kieran posts an occasional blog and will use his rating to put up some selections during Aintree. If you are interested, go to this page and sign up for a free subscription.
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