November Micro Systems
As I write, September has just come to a close and with it an overall disappointment for the September micro systems. After August’s excellent 43 points profit September went the other way with an overall loss of 36 points. Full table of results is below.
Goldie had gone 0/31 until the very last race when finally picking up a winner at a very nice 20.92 BSP. The elusive hunt for a big price JP O’Brien winner goes on and we found just a couple of smaller priced wins. Appleby, Palmer and Beckett were also poor, all losing between 8 and 12 points.
As always though you get a mixed bag and there were three decent systems, with Balding in particular gaining 27.53pts of profit with some nice mid range price wins. The systems with no highlights on their win P/L’s in the table above, were between 1 and 4 points down on wins with three of those in profit on place bets and I will personally run those again next year. Most had very few bets with only Haggas having a sizeable amount with 23 in total producing a 3.73 loss on wins but a 3.54 profit on places.
All in all, disappointing but that can be the nature of micro systems, especially those being tested live for the first time. What is interesting when looking at them all as a whole is that up to and including all win BSP odds to 9.50 then the wins are still 0.30 pts in profit and places stood at 2.34 points up. There were 90 bets in total that had BSP win odds of 10 or above, 36 of them at 20 or above and three winners (At 17.50 twice and 20.92). A winner in amongst those 36 bets above 20 could have swung things our way, but it wasn’t to be. Onwards and upwards we go.
Can November produce some fireworks? Sorry, I’ll get my coat…
And these are our overall profitable jockeys when riding for any of the above trainers.
Gordon Elliott has a huge number of runners and winners so we may as well start there.
Well, we won’t get a much better starting point than that! It doesn’t really fit into the micro system criteria though with potentially over 100 bets in the month!
Let’s take a closer look.
The table below is his record for all Novice Chases and Hurdles (Handicap and Non-Handicap).
As you can see the strike rate is generally very good but winning odds are very low and it’s making a loss overall. Given our main priority here is to lose bet numbers with as little cost to profit as possible these seem an ideal first filter.
There’s one big winner that is the main reason 2024 is profitable so given the large number of bets still I’m going to add a final filter and we’ll concentrate on his fancied runners. The filter will be on Forecast Odds and we’ll take anything that is forecast at 3.00 or under.
Paul Nicholls is up next. We’ll start with his Non Handicap stuff. The profits aren’t huge but it’s a very good strike rate so let’s see if we can trim the bets at all and get a nice high strike rate micro system that can tick along.
We start here. Not too bad, a minus in 2023 and profit in the other two years. As you can see with the Average BF win odds, these are top end of the market horses in the main.
Let’s break it down by race types.
I think what we’ll do here is keep the high end A/E race types. The three low ones also have odds on average BSP Odds which is not ideal given their strike rates so I’m more than happy to lose them.
If we look now at the Last Time Out table, we can see that almost all the wins are from horses that have just won or finished second or those who are having their first run. Given the nature of the system, I’m happy to filter it there and keep things at the top end.
A look at the number of horses in the race who won last time out now and there appears to be a bit of a cutoff point we can add. 3 or more his record is 2/8 25% strike rate and a loss of around 2 points. Whilst 0 to 2 is 31/55 56.36% strike rate and over 30 points of profit.
All of which leaves us with a potentially very nice high strike rate micro system. The lowest year was a touch over 6pts up, the A/E is excellent all round and it’s also 10 points up on places during the three year period as well.
Back over to Ireland now for a look at Henry De Bromhead. There’s a potential problem here though due to Rachael Blackmore retiring but we’ll work the system with her included and then see where we are. 2024 should be a good indicator though because she didn’t ride during November so will not be in our figures.
A look at the position in the weights makes for interesting reading and I think a justified filter given the size of some of the Irish fields and the fact there’s a lot of bets here on De Bromhead and this is a pretty big sample in that context.
Those who were eleventh or worse in the weights order or indeed clear bottom have gone 1/22 for a 20 point loss. Those joint bottom are more likely to be non-handicap races so we are mostly removing handicap races here (15 vs 7)
Things are looking good but we still have a lot of bets for the month, ranging from 37 to 70!.
The good thing regarding Rachael Blackmore is that her replacement, Darragh O’Keefe is more than matching her strike rate. This suggests there’s no reason to think her retirement will affect things here.
The table below is the record for all races of 2m6f or further during our 3 years of November data. A 16% strike rate for a 5 point loss compared to a near 26% strike rate and 192 points of profit over races less than 2m6f.
A look through race types throws up this for Beginners Chases. Just one win in nineteen races. They’re spread evenly across the three years and all year’s show a loss.
At this point I am going to split the system into two. There are too many bets to really consider it a micro system and many may be reluctant with that and reducing the bet numbers further would just lead to filters with no logic to them. Split in two it then gives a chance to do both or stick with one.
There’s a good cut off point that splits our system in two. The first is those horses that are running in their first four races. The second is those that are running their fifth race and beyond.
The first is as follows then.
Note Rachael Blackmore has been removed from the jockeys in the screenshot which is why the totals are different.
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