Image shoes a man at a desk reads stats with a horse racing in the background.

The Statman Goes Off On A Tangent

I am really hopeful you all enjoyed last month’s article, but October looks as good a time as any to go off on a tangent for a change, and I have come up with something a little left field for you, racing folklore!

I suspect I am not the only one here who was brought up in a household that enjoyed their racing, but have a think if you will, can you remember all the stories you were told as you learned the ropes of our great sport?

I am sure I have missed some (feel free to write in if I have, you are never too old to learn something new) but the first two I could think of were:

  1. Back the outsider in a three horse field
  2. Back top-weights in nurseries

So, the question is, are either of these remotely accurate, or are they both “Flat earth” theories that have verbally stood the test of time and been passed from generation to generation, but won’t help you bank balance one iota, let’s go and have a look, shall we?

Data used is from January 1,1998, to 30th September 2025, Flat Turf, Flat All-Weather, chases, hurdles and National Hunt Flat races (bumpers) UK only, one concept at a time.

Part One - Outsider of Three

Any field of three runners at the off, what happens if you back the outsider of the trio - all returns are quoted to Betfair Starting Price (BSP) assuming 2% commission.

Backing the outsider by race type.

Conclusion:

Anyone else nearly fall over in shock seeing those figures, who knew our parents or grandparents were correct all along, not me, that’s for sure, I would have confidently predicted this was a no go concept. If we (sensibly) ignore hurdle races and bumpers we can boost those figures to:

Results on backing the outsider.

Very few bets I accept so one for those who like an occasional punt, but a reasonable if not exceptional profit in the circumstances, though what it says about our racing with so many three runner races is a very different story. What we can now do is break the figures down by track to fine tune that little bit further.

Profitability by track.

Amending the “rules” slightly to the tracks listed above and suddenly we have a Return On Investment of close to 81% which is much healthier. No get rich quick scheme, but certainly something worth considering.

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Sean Trivass has been involved in racing for close to 40 years, starting at the local paper and moving on via Timeform, Alan Brazil Racing, Betdaq, Shadowfax Racing (Sir Ivor), The Independent (Hyperion) and many others as a freelance.

Currently the racing editor of the Daily Sport, he is also the UK correspondent for Thoroughbred News Australia, works on the racing desk at the Press Association, contributes regular international articles for Racing Ahead magazine, runs his own website (Writesports.net), contributes to the Post Racing Podcast with Ron Robinson on a regular basis, and is the current chair of the Horseracing Bettors Forum, the only recognised body representing the day to day punter.

Living near East Grinstead, his local tracks include Lingfield, Goodwood, Plumpton, Brighton and Fontwell (where he held his wedding reception), while his father owned Northmore Stud who bred St Leger runner-up Kite Wood who raced in the Godolphin colours.

Away from his daily work he loves football, plays pool (badly) and has had numerous statistically based books on making money from racing published and still available via Amazon!

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