Draw Bias in Handicaps over 5 furlongs

Each year around this time I update different areas of racing research, and in this article, I am going to share a small part of my latest draw research. This is in preparation for the turf flat season that will be starting within the next month.

This article is part of our Complete Draw Bias Guide — covering every UK course and distance in one place.

The draw in flat racing will always have a special place in my heart as it was my first real interest when I started becoming interested in betting on horses. Each year I update my draw stats, and any course and distance that seems to have a bias, I will then examine in greater detail to cross check my initial findings.

Draw biases can change and it is important to keep on top of these changes when they occur. Spotting such changes can give you an edge before the rest of the punting world catch up.

Normally when I do draw research, I split the draw into three sections (thirds), but to ‘change it up a bit’, in this piece I am going to split into halves and quarters (quartiles).

For those of you interested in this type of ‘draw splitting’ the excellent www.horseracebase.com has the capacity to do this in its system builder. The data I am sharing in this piece is relatively ‘raw’ – what I mean by that is it gives us a starting point from which to take it further and dig a bit deeper.

For this particular article I am analysing draw data from the last seven full seasons (2016 to 2022) focusing on handicap races over 5 furlongs with 8 or more runners.

Personally, when examining the draw and any potential draw bias I tend to look at handicap races only. This is down to the fact that these races tend to be the most competitive, as well as there are a decent number of handicaps over a year. I believe the number of runners is important too. Eight runners are always my minimum – races with smaller fields lack validity in my opinion when it comes to draw bias analysis.

Firstly, let me take a look at all courses in the UK that have had at least twenty five 5f handicap races with 8 or more runners over the period of study. (For the record Brighton is the only course where there have been less than 30 races – they have had 29.). 

The table will show the win percentages for the bottom and top quartiles of the draw as well as their A/E indices. As we are splitting into quarters / quartiles the percentages should be around the 25% mark assuming there is no potential draw bias in play. Clearly the further away the percentage is from 25 (above or below that mark), the more likely a draw bias exists:

Some interesting findings here – the Ayr figures show a definite bias to lower draws. The win percentages and the A/E indices both show this clearly. Ayr is a course where a draw bias does exist over this minimum trip. However, we have to be a little careful because the stalls can be placed in three different positions.

When the stalls are placed on the stands side the bias is less evident; when the stalls are placed in the centre or far side, lower draws definitely seem to hold a decent edge. All things being considered though, the lowest draws should offer punters a very solid advantage.

Beverley stats suggest a solid looking low draw bias when especially when comparing the two win percentages.

Meanwhile Chester has an even stronger looking low draw bias according to the win percentages but the A/E indices suggest that the very highest draws have actually been slightly better value.

Hamilton is interesting; it is a course where it seems very low draws have been at a disadvantage. The win percentage and A/E index correlate well giving us more confidence that this is actually the case. Not a bias I was previously that aware of, so I have learnt something! Always a plus.

There are some other courses over 5f where it seems that a draw bias has been occurring – Redcar seems to have a very strong looking low draw bias. Sandown also has a decent looking low draw bias.

There are three courses that look to have a small high draw bias – these being 5f Ripon, Thirsk and Yarmouth. At this point it is worth noting that it is rare for 5f races that are run round a bend for high draws to do best, so it should come as no surprise that these three 5f tracks are raced over a straight 5.

To give us an extra layer of detail here are the draw splits by splitting the field exactly in half. It will be interesting to see if there is some good correlation between these course figures and the ‘quartile’ ones. One would expect the percentages for both halves of the draw to be near to the 50% mark unless the draw is giving an edge to one side or the other.

Once we get to around a 65% / 35% split, it is quite likely that there is a draw bias in play.

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Featured Image: (CC BY-SA 4.0) – Rennett Stowe from USA – via Wikimedia Commons