There are profits ahead…with a little effort.
Something a little bit different this month with the good news being we can churn out some acceptable (if not spectacular) profits – the bad news, there may be a little bit more work for you to do to find the relevant horses!
This month we are looking at maidens on the Flat (Turf only) Great Britain and Ireland – horses who are yet to win a race.
Naturally, newcomers are the bane of a punter’s life as completely unknown quantities and despite what the breeding industry will have you believe, breeding a Derby winner with an Oaks winner does NOT guarantee success, regardless of the glaringly obvious genetic advantage – and in some cases, the hefty price tag at the sales.
By definition, the winner can never race in a maiden again, so what we are planning to look at here is the horses who came home second third fourth, fifth, or worse and how they got on next time out.
Writing this BEFORE I download the data (that makes it more exciting for me and keeps me focussed), my suspicions are that a well-beaten second will be over bet on his or her next start, while a close up fifth may be better value.
Some stables may be better equipped to find the necessary improvement; others will have had them spot-on for their long awaited debut and there will be precious little or any improvement to come – lets go and see what we can find…
Note – turf only, Flat only UK and Ireland – all-weather tracks are NOT included.
Data interrogated – the last 10 years (2015 to 8th May 2025 inclusive) have been used to ensure we are talking about recent data, especially when it comes to the trainers and/or jockeys who are still active.
For a point of reference, any trainer changes (Mark Johnston to Charlie Johnston, John Gosden to John and Thady Gosden etc) have been treated as the same entity on all statistics listed, unless clearly annotated otherwise.
Starting With The Basics
Summary: Good strike rates, better than normal winning runs, but very little profit.
Let’s have a quick look by trainer to see if some improve their debutants more than others…
Summary: Before anyone takes a glance at the cold hard cash figures, please think again – very few ideas ever come up with a consistent profit to industry SP, then strike rate of 40% adapts itself very well to any staking system, and the return on investment sits at over 58% to Betfair Starting Price from very few bets – not “yacht buying” profits, but a clean simple idea that reaps regular rewards. I wonder if we can dig out any other gems…?
Summary: similar to those horses who finished second on debut, an outstanding strike rate, smaller than hoped for profits, BUT a solid return on investment to Betfair Starting Price of 49.52% from minimal bets.
Summary: No surprise to see the strike rates starting to drop and we are now at one winner in four (as an average).
However, that is made up for by better prices, with a return on investment to Betfair Starting Prices of 93.19% – try getting that from your bank!
And then…
Summary: There goes the strike rate (no great shock there) but here come the profits in pounds! A return on investment of 248.20% to Betfair Starting Price is outstanding, but we do need to note the much lower success rate and the longer losing runs and adjust our stakes accordingly.
Lastly….
Summary: A one in 10 strike rate won’t be for everyone, while long losing runs of up to 56 will mean some clever management of your betting bank, but we see bigger profits (admittedly from more bets), and a return on investment of 84.58% to Betfair Starting Price is not to be sniffed at.
Conclusion:
I have come up with more profitable ideas I admit, but this looks an easy one for you all to manage as we have a limited number of races, only looking at maidens (with the word maiden in the title as opposed to races with horses who have not won, such as a novice).
Even the worst case scenario comes up with 1000 or so bets over 10 years which is something we can all handle comfortably.
Those looking for higher strike rates can do so from a quick glance over the tables, those looking for the best return on investment can cherry pick as well, while anyone looking for good old fashioned £ profit also have their own options.
Sean Trivass is well-known freelance journalist who specialises in horse racing. His books can be found on Amazon here https://tinyurl.com/59t4dr7e while his weekly blog is updated Friday evening on his website at www.writesports.net. Any ideas for future articles – contact Sean via his website and he will investigate further!
