The Derby and The Commonwealth Cup
Well, it was a while ago since I wrote about the Guineas, but it was almost an almighty touch.
Having the two favourites going into the races at ante post prices from over 6 months prior, was a great buzz. It was a shame the 33/1 on Field Of Gold was foiled, especially as he was arguably the best horse in the race. Desert Flower was a consolation a day later, albeit at a much shorter price, but she is an exceptional filly.
Hopefully, the flat season has started as it means to go on!
The Derby
At the time of writing, I’m still awaiting the result of the Dante. So, The Lion In Winter could be the top Ballydoyle horse going into the Derby, or he could not. However, regardless of what has happened in that race, his stablemate Delacroix has a massive chance at Epsom.
He was pretty much campaigned as Aidan O’Brien’s top two year old last season. He always runs a very good one in the Champions Juvenile race on Irish Champions weekend and I imagine they were surprised he got beaten there. As he went to Newmarket next for a Group 3, which he duly won. Then taking the usual Ballydoyle route, he went to the Futurity Trophy, where he again got beaten.
Delacroix started his season off early by winning the Ballysax in March before really impressing in the Derby Trial at Leopardstown. He can be a bit behind the bridle, but that is often not a bad thing as he saves a bit for himself.
The way he has picked up when asked this season and sustained a strong burst all the way to the line, has been striking. I can see even further suiting him, given the way that he races.
There is a lot to like about him, and I’d like to think Ryan Moore is going to have a tough time getting away from him as his ride of choice at Epsom.
Recommended Bet
Back Delacroix @ 9/2
The Commonwealth Cup
Quite a few editions of the Commonwealth Cup have been won by horses who have dropped back in distance. I think that possibly comes from the fact that it’s a tough track and a race that is usually run at a good gallop, so you have to have that class blend of speed and stamina.
The likes of Muharaar, Advertise, Perfect Power and Inisherin have all come back in trip to win this.
Shadow Of Light heads the market currently, but it looks as though he’s going to go to the St James’s Palace. Aside from him, I don’t think there is a standout sprinter from this crop. Therefore, I think Jonquil is a reasonable play here at a big price.
Juddmonte have a number of horses in the mile division with Field Of Gold and Cosmic Year also looking top-notchers. Jonquil is the only one of those entered in the Commonwealth Cup. The way he travelled in the Greenham, you’d have to think he’d have no issue stepping back a furlong from that. I wouldn’t be concerned about him having the pace for 6f. He was very unlucky not to win the French 2000 Guineas, where his pace perhaps got him to the front a bit too early and he got mowed down by Henri Matisse.
Jonquil is a horse with loads of ability; it’s just going to be about finding the right race for him. The combination of circumstance and his strengths could be a perfect storm for him in the Commonwealth Cup.
Recommended Bet
Back Jonquil @ 16/1
Alex Peperell
