Your Micro Systems for June
It’s time for some more Micro systems, this time for the month of June. An excellent March for our micro systems was followed by a bit of a disappointing April, although even then there were three of our systems that made profit on both the Place and Win side with Ryan (5.17pts, 0.08pts), Burke (1.03pts, 5.08pts) and Haggas (4.15pts, 7.23pts) which will be worth carrying forward to next year. The main disappointments were Houghton and M. Easterby who both failed to pick up a single win in their combined 18 qualifiers.
It’s the nature of micro systems that a single result could swing everything into profit and that was the case on the final day of April, with Super Soldier, running for Burke, who missed out by half a length for what would have been a win at a BSP of 19.48.
It’s time to turn out attention to June then and see what we can find. As usual we’ll start with a list of trainers with their records for the past three June’s on the Flat.
This time we have 14 who have 20+ wins, show a profit over the three June’s and all have an A/E of 1.00 or higher.
We’ll go through in table order which is ordered by Wins.
First up is AP O’Brien.
He’s showing profit on all three June’s so that’s a decent start. His place losses are high though.
We’ll start by removing Handicap races as I think it’s fair to say it’s not really something he targets and results show there’s no profit on them either.
Turning our attention to jockeys, Moore and Lordan are the go to jockeys and we’ll keep in Crehan as well who had a couple of rides last year and picked up a win.
Track Location now and it throws up an interesting table.
For a trainer with a consistently good strike rate Munster based tracks are a very surprising 1 win from 13 runs. With a trainer this good and generally over bet I think it’s well worth removing those from our micro system.
The runs are 7, 2 and 5 in terms of numbers from 2022 to 2024 so it’s not just a one year thing either. The win came last year but he still failed to profit.
I also removed our jockey selection to see what his overall record is in those two locations and it becomes 2/23 for -18.4pts loss.
Out they go. As a bonus that also includes Crehan’s losing ride.
We have something profitable in each year now but we’ll have a look at a few other areas to see if we can get the bet numbers down as well.
We’ll start with field size as there are some very large fields in some of the Irish races in particular.
19 or more runners would seem a good cut off point. Just 2 wins from 9 both at small odds gives us a loss of -6.2 pts.
There’s an argument at the other end as well to remove 5 and 6 runner races as profit is tiny for the number of bets but we’ll wait and have another look at that after investigating some other areas first.
For now, we’ll use the cut off as a maximum of 18 runners.
Regarding bets with a field size related filter, I always use it at the time I place the bet, if it’s not qualified at that time then it’s no bet, if there’s a non runner later that for example here brought the field down to 18 from 19 then so be it.
Career runs now.
It would seem that things get a bit sketchy after their 7th run.
It’s certainly enough to remove them from a micro system and bring our bets down some more. Just 4 wins from 27 bets.
It did show a small profit last year from 6 bets but I’m happy to remove them in the grand scheme of things.
A look at a few other potential filters gives us nothing viable to remove so we’ll leave things as they are.
Next up is Boughey.
Two years with nice profit and one small losing year (2022) is where we start with this one.
A look at race type would seem to show us an immediate path to go down in Handicaps and Maidens. Non Handicaps are a poor strike rate and show a loss. Novices are also not profitable although the strike rate is decent enough.
Win odds suggest that he only wins when they are expected to though and at low odds.
His runners coming from an All Weather race in their last race are not profitable.
Horse’s best finish in its last three races.
Those who have not managed at least a 4th place have managed just one win from ten rides. This gives us a good opportunity to trim the number of bets down.
A final filter now based on the going.
There seems to be a clear indicator that Soft or Heavy is not preferred. Of course, this can vary horse to horse but for the purposes of this micro system and given the stats in the table below I’m going to remove Soft or Heavy going.
There’s an argument to remove Good to Soft as well but the strike rate is on a par so we’ll leave it in.
This leaves us with a promising looking micro system that should average about a bet a day, although it won’t come out like that of course!
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