March Micro Systems
As always, we’ll start with a look back at the month that has just finished and see how our live micro system tests got on. This time it’s January we are looking at.
We got the expected usual mixed bag but over all a very pleasing month on them. Also, a particularly unlucky one with the system on Osborne giving us a winner at 19.50 BSP that unfortunately was a dead heat thus halving our potential win.
As far as carrying forward the systems there were five that are definite, (Skelton, Simcock, Balding, Murphy and F O’Brien) then there is Owen, Kelleway and J O’Brien as well who only had 4 bets between them with a couple of nice places on J O’Brien giving us 5.17 pts profit as well. These are all ones I will give another go next January.
I’m also inclined to include Osborne. He ended with a small loss but a very positive Betfair A/E of 1.21 and had Aneirins Sword had a slightly longer nose and not dead heated we’d have seen around 9 pts profit. George Boughey had only four bets but did record a Betfair A/E of 1.33 despite a small loss. Again, this is another one that might be worth running again next year.
The only two that were a washout were Palmer and Cromwell, going a miserly 1 for 9 and 0 for 9 respectively, although Palmer did place at 44.44% to record a small profit on those.
All in all we ended up with a decent 22.64% strike rate (24/106) and 21.79 points of profit on our win bets and a very nice 47.17% (50/106) strike rate on places that saw us make 9.25 points of profit on those.
Let’s see what March can give us.
I’m going to take a different approach now so as to not repeat last year’s process as although no doubt some different one’s might get thrown up we’d largely be covering the same ground.
I’m going to split it into codes. National Hunt and All Weather and from there use the dig function on the excellent https://www.horseracebase.com to look at some trainer/jockey combos that show some promise for March and then dig into the best of those to see if we can get some micro systems.
First up then we’ll take a look at the National Hunt.
Although Harry Cobden is set for pastures new he will still be riding for Paul Nicholls until May so that is our first port of call.
Straight off the bat we can see that the last three March’s have been profitable ones for the pairing. Let’s see if we can reduce the bet numbers a bit without losing any of the profit.
There’s an interesting angle here. I’m not entirely sure how I feel about it. As you can see below almost all the profit has come when the horse finished 2nd, 3rd or 4th last time out. The fact that last time out winners were still a decent strike rate helps to show that those finishing in the first four produced most of the next time winners, the only difference for those finishing first was they were probably over bet next time out hence the tiny loss despite a 25% strike rate.
This leaves us here with a nice little micro system for our Nicholls/Cobden partnership.
Longest losing run on Wins: 6
Longest losing run on Places: 5
The next one to take a look at is the Jamie Snowden, Gavin Sheehan duo.
Another great looking set of stats right out of the gate.
You can see below that his efforts on the Chase are quite out of sync with Hurdle and the NH Flat races.
That simple filter will leave us in a good position for a micro system in March for this pairing.
Longest losing run on Wins: 5
Longest losing run on Places: 4
No micro system search for trainer jockey combos would be complete without a look at the Murphy Bowen partnership. We have another decent starting point.
Two race types stand out from the rest which are Maiden Hurdles and Handicap Novice Chases. Both have strike rates in the mid teens compared to everything else that is 30% and above and both show a loss. NH Flat is also showing a loss with a 0.43 profit the best return when looking at each of the years in our data. All three have poor A/E’s as well.
This leaves us with this nice looking micro system for March with the Champion Jockey.
Longest losing run on Wins: 5
Longest losing run on Places: 4
The next pairing could be a bit of a challenge to find an angle that’s profitable.
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