The Statman Takes A Look At Cheltenham for The Festival 2026
With the publication date for this article, it would be remiss of me to cover anything bar the Cheltenham Festival, four days of top-quality National Hunt racing and for many, the highlight of the entire racing year, Flat or jumps. This year we are talking about the 10th to 13th of March inclusive but do remember, as I say every year, the only way to leave Cheltenham with a small fortune is to start with a large fortune.
Firstly, this may be my first article ever without the obligatory tables, nope, we are going to do something slightly different, though don’t panic, it will all be fact based as always. With so many races I won’t be covering everyone all BUT I will be profiling two races a day, if you want the rest you will need to buy my book, available here https://tinyurl.com/4mama6j9
The Concept:
I will be looking back at the last 20 years of results, 2006 to 2026 inclusive, (less if it’s a newer race, obviously) spotting patterns among the previous winners, be that their official ratings, when they last ran, whatever stands out per race.
I had two choices, one or two facts for all races (hardly conclusive), or cherry pick certain contests, looking for two contests a day, one a handicap (where the percentages will by definition be lower) and one a graded race. I will list the statistics used in success percentage order and suggest (it’s up to you), that you delete horses running down the facts until you reach one horse – or more likely a suitable shortlist. If history repeats itself, we have a great chance of trapping the winner, and all you need to do (come race day) is apply the filters suggested, sit back – and hope for the best. Wish me/us luck…
Tuesday 10th March
Supreme Novices Hurdle
Why not start with the opener, if we can find the winner we are off to a flyer!
Looking at the last 20 running’s as I will with each race, and the following are facts to take into account:
- All 20 winners were aged five to seven (100%)
- All 20 winners had raced within the last 120 days (100%)
- None of the 20 winners had raced within the last 15 days (100%)
- All 20 winners had raced at least twice this season (100%)
- None had raced more than five times in the current season (100%)
- 19 of the 20 winners had come home in the first two last time out (95%)
- 19 of the 20 winners were officially rated 155 or lower (95%)
- 18 of the 20 winners were priced at 12/1 or shorter (90%)
- 18 of the 20 winners were aged five or six (90%)
- 18 of the 20 winners came from the first six in the betting at the off (90%)
- 17 of the 19 winners who had an official rating were rated 142 or higher (89%)
Additional comment:
- Willie Mullins has won this seven times and placed a further seven times in the period covered from 54 runners (10.9% winners 26% placed).
- Nicky Henderson has won this three times and placed on a further 12 occasions (10% win 50% place).
- Paul Nicholls has won it twice and placed an additional once from 20 attempts (13% win 20% place).
- Nico de Boinville has ridden the winner three times and placed once from seven rides (43% win 57% place).
- Paul Townend has ridden two winners and placed a further twice (13% win 25% place).
Ultima Handicap Chase
- None of the last 20 winners had pulled up, fallen, or been brought down on their previous start (100%).
- None had raced in the last 15 days (100%).
- All had raced in the last 120 days (100%).
- All 20 winners were aged six to 11 inclusive (100%).
- All had raced at least twice this season (100%).
- 19 of the last 20 winners were priced at 40/1 or shorter at the off (95%).
- 19 were officially rated 129 or above (95%).
- 19 were officially rated 151 or below (95%).
- 18 of the 19 winners who completed on their previous start came home in the first six (95%).
- 18 of the 20 winners were aged seven to 10 (90%).
- 15 of the last 20 winners were from the first five in the betting at the off (75%).
Additional comment:
- Lucinda Russell (now Lucinda Russell and Michael Scudamore) has won this three times from eight attempts and placed with another two (38% win 63% placed).
- David Pipe has won this three times from 22 runners and placed with a further four (14% win 32% placed).
- Jonjo (and/or Jonjo and A J) O’Neill have won this three times from 20 runners and placed with a further two (15% win 25% placed).
- Derek Fox has ridden the winner twice and placed once from five rides (40% win 60% placed).
- Brendan Powell has ridden the winner twice and placed once from six rides (33% win and 50% placed).
- Richie McLernon has ridden the winner twice and placed once from eight attempts (25% win 38% placed).
Wednesday 11th March
Queen Mother Champion Chase
- All 20 winners were priced at 20/1 or shorter at the off (100%).
- None of the six who have run here and fell or pulled up on their previous start have gone on to win this (100%).
- None of the 20 winners had raced within the last 30 days (100%).
- None of the 20 winners had raced more than five times this season (100%).
- All 20 winners had raced in the last 120 days (100%).
- All 20 winners had raced over at least two miles on furlong previously in their career (hurdles or fences) (100%).
- All 19 of those who completed on their previous start had come home in the first five (100%).
- Every winner came from the first six in the betting at the off (100%).
- All 20 winners were aged 10 or younger (100%).
- 19 or the 20 winners had won over two miles one furlong or further over hurdles or fences (95%)
- 19 of the 20 winners were priced at 12/1 or shorter at the off (95%).
- 19 of the 20 winners had raced four times or less this season (95%).
- 19 0f the 20 winners had raced at least twice this season (95%).
- 19 of the 20 winners had raced within the last 90 days (95%).
- All of the 19 winners who had an official rating were rated 156 or above (100%).
- 18 of the 20 winners were aged nine or younger (90%).
- 18 of the 20 winners came from the first four in the betting at the off (90%).
- 17 of the 19 who completed on their last start had finished in the first four (89%).
Additional comment:
- Nicky Henderson has trained five winners from 13 attempts and placed with another two (38% win 54% placed).
- Henry De Bromhead has trained four winners from 20 runners and placed a further six times (20% win 50% placed).
- Willie Mullins has trained two winners from 18 runners and placed with four others (11% win 33% placed).
- Paul Nicholls is responsible for four winners from 22 attempts with two more placed (18% win 27% placed).
- Nico de Boinville has ridden three winners from five attempts and placed with one more (60% win 80% placed).
- Paul Townend was on board two winners from 10 runners and placed on a further two (20% win 40% place).
Coral Cup
- All 20 winners were aged nine or younger (100%).
- All 20 winners were officially rated 153 or lower (100%).
- None of the 20 winners last raced within 15 days (100%).
- 19 of the 20 winners were priced at 40/1 or below (95%).
- 19 of the 20 winners had raced at least once this season (95%).
- 18 of the 20 winners were aged eight or younger (90%).
- 18 of the 20 winners had never won over this exact distance before (90%).
- 18 of the 20 winners had raced within the last 120 days (90%).
- 18 of the 20 winners were officially rated 135 or above (90%).
- 15 of the 20 winners finished in the first eight on their previous outing (75%).
- 14 of the 20 winners had finished in the first five on their last outing (70%).
Additional Comment:
- Dan Skelton has run eight horses in this race and won with two of them, placing with one other (25% win 38% placed).
- Gordon Elliott has trained three winners from 38 runners and placed with another five (8% win 21% placed).
- Nicky Henderson had handled four winners from 56 runners and placed with a further five (7% win 16% placed).
- Willie Mullins is responsible for two winners from 54 runners with seven other placed (4% win 17% placed).
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