The Pep Talk – The Cheltenham Festival
Current Position
I’m pretty happy with my current position for Cheltenham. There has been quite a lot of change in the markets since the start of the season and I feel it’s worked out well that I’ve waited a little longer than usual to get stuck in to the ante post markets.
Of the 4 bets I had last month, both L’Eau Du Sud and Narcisso Has are both significantly shorter for the Champion Chase and Triumph Hurdle respectively. Annoyingly Impose Toi was beaten on Trials Day, but I certainly haven’t lost any faith in him. I’d like to see a bigger field in the Stayers Hurdle.
Echoing Silence has shortened slightly, but both Bambino Fever and Oldschool Outlaw have been impressive in the past month, so that should be a good race.
Nonetheless, it’s a good position to be in and I’m going to add some more to the team this month.
National Hunt Chase
This probably isn’t an obvious race to have an ante post bet in, but I’ve had my eye on a horse for this for a while and he had his third chase start to get qualified for this recently, so it looks like this race is the plan.
The horse in question is One Big Bang. He was a really solid handicap hurdler last season who has stacks of solid form.
He was second in the big staying handicap hurdle at Haydock on Betfair Chase day, before beating Doddiethegreat at the same venue in February. Then he was fifth in the Pertemps Final at the Festival before bettering that with a third at the Punchestown Festival.
Making his chase debut at Cheltenham at the November meeting, he ran a blinder to finish second to the already-experienced Wade Out, whose previous win over Wendigo is strong form. One Big Bang then easily beat Kamsinas in a two runner race before his third run over fences was over a trip far too short - less than two and a half miles. It was an eye-catching effort as he ran on strongly after the last, setting him up perfectly for a tilt at the National Hunt Chase. This is taking the shape of a well put-together plan so far and given the horse’s versatility with regards to ground and how he’s ridden, I think he’s a great bet. He ticks an awful lot of boxes and there is some 20/1 available with Betfair and Unibet.
Recommended Bet
Back One Big Bang @ 20/1 Each Way
Turners Novices Hurdle
This could be a really competitive race if all the main protagonists show up. No Drama This End has looked seriously impressive in all 3 wins so far this season. I just have to question whether he is another Nicholls Challow Hurdle winner who underwhelms at Cheltenham. Bravemansgame, Stage Star, Hermes Allen and Captain Teague are all recent winners of that race for Nicholls who have been beaten at Cheltenham. If he wasn’t favourite he might provide some value, but I think there are better bets here than No Drama This End.
Mighty Park could be very good, but it’s easy to get sucked in by those wide margin maiden winners. He’d won before the first hurdle, that’s how competitive it wasn’t. I’d want to see him again before backing him for a Cheltenham race.
Skylight Hustle and Ballyfad are solid contenders for Gordon Elliott, but they’re far from unbeatable.
Doctor Steinberg could run here or in the Albert Bartlett. I’d be surprised if he had the speed to cope with some of the horses in here. It’s hard to fault what he’s done so far, but this race is going to be a completely different test.
I can’t help but feel Act Of Innocence is being overlooked. Reading between the lines of articles and quotes I’ve read from the owners and Nicky Henderson, I think they thought that Act Of Innocence was better than Old Park Star at the start of the season, and that horse is clear favourite for the Supreme.
Henderson often sends his good novices to Newbury, which is exactly what he did with Act Of Innocence. He was impressive in beating Sinnatra, doing probably what was expected of him.
Returning to Newbury, he perhaps disappointed on the face of it when finishing second at 2/7 to a four-year-old called Minella Yoga. He looks more than useful in his own right, cost £360,000 and was receiving 20lbs from Act Of Innocence.
But I loved what Act Of Innocence did in the Sidney Banks at Huntingdon. He travelled sweetly throughout the race, jumping well before taking the race up at the penultimate flight. It was such a smooth performance, he never looked out of first gear and there was never a doubt the whole way round. I’m very confident we’ve not seen the best of him - he’s uncomplicated, talented and he’s a great price.
Recommended Bet
Back Act Of Innocence @ 12/1
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