The Racing Horse offers their powerful Racecourse Template for Chepstow for Thursday 15 July 2021 and proud to support the work of Silk Series.
There is a 7-race card including the Silk Series Handicap (For Pro-Am Female Jockeys) (Class 4) 5f16y which will be fascinating with Hollie Doyle, Josephine Gordon, Laura Pearson and Gina Mangan competing against each other!
The going is expected to be good, good to soft in places (subject to change).
Chepstow Racecourse Template
Best performing category albeit from a smaller sample are 3yo winning favourites in non-handicaps which show 25 winners from 48 runners for a big 52% strike rate and a level stake profit to SP of +1.46. Winning favourites in handicaps fare slightly better than the national average. We note the top 5 trainers at the course perform above their national averages, this represents an edge when they have runners at this course.
Favourites winning at the course in the past 12 months: 126-273 for 46.2%
Standout figures from the track (past 5 years) come from Ralph Beckett (operating at 16% above national average) and Rossa Ryan (8% above). Worth pointing out the jockey is currently 1-43 for 2% since returning from injury, this figure is certain to increase soon.
As we go to post, top trainer at the course David Evans, who operates at 9%, has hit a seam of form never recorded before, with 9 winners from 21 runners for a massive 43% strike rate at prices of 11/8, 6/1, 10/1, 9/4, 9/1, 8/1, 11/4, 5/1, 42/10. He can never expect a set of results like this again in his racing career, but it does show his horses are in fantastic form! He has 2 runners at Chepstow tomorrow, and we think he will have another winner!
- 1.45: SIENNA BREEZE ridden by Hollie Doyle. Lucy Wadham only 4 runners at Chepstow (1 winner), so significant jockey booking. FETNA Michael Stoute has 20% strike rate with handicap debutants.
- 2.10: THREE CARD TRICK Michael Blake profit of £41.45 to a £1 when one runner at a meeting.
- 2.40: PORTERINTHEJUNGLE (R Brisland) rated higher in Ireland.
- 3.10: GINGER JAM (N Tinkler) is longest traveller 225m, wasn't beaten far in higher class sprint at Doncaster last time out. JUST GLAMOROUS (C Mason) is top earner at the course £123,765.32. UNDER CURFEW is unbeaten this year and will be tough to beat under a 5lb penalty for his Bath win on Tuesday.
- 3.40: TAWAAFOQ Adrian Wintle profit of £46.95 to a £1 when one runner at a meeting. OUR MAN IN HAVANA Tony Carrol profit of £18.75 when saddling the favourite.
- 4.10: SILVESTRIS (M Johnston) second longest traveller 216m, shows signs of temperament. FIRST CONNECTION (C Fellowes) is an improving colt (PACAFI).
- 4.40: NICK VEDDER (R Brisland) drops from Class 4 to Class 6.
3.10: Silk Series Handicap (For Pro-Am Female Jockeys) (Class 4) 5f16y
A natural starting point to this race is to look at the Watson/Doyle combination. To date they show 137 winners from 647 rides for a big 21% strike rate winning £1,636,153 in prize money. Hollie has a national average of 13% and ridden 8-66 for 12% at Chepstow, this ranks 15 of the 39 racecourses she has ridden at in the UK. She rides the 3yo gelding Secret Handsheikh, who she has partnered twice to victory previously. Weighing close to 8st her mount will carry 10st 1lb so a fair bit of lead in the saddle, that said strength will not be an issue!
She faces 7 rivals, and it will be truly exciting and not to mention riveting, to see her ride against some other excellent jockeys in Josephine Gordon, Laura Pearson and Gina Mangan, especially given she is not riding a horse at the top of the betting!
Despite Hollie in the saddle, we cannot see a top 3 placing?
“Chepstow takes a fair bit of getting. Because it’s so up hill and down dale, stamina has to come into play and it’s also worth noting that the straight is quite long, meaning that some horses start to race a lot earlier than is ideal. If you’re on one that wants to make the running, for example, you’ll often get a few keen to take you on earlier than you might like, so patience is vital for a jockey. Long-striding horses can often go well on the straight track but, as it’s quite stiff, they definitely need to get home” – Jason Weaver
Paul Moon – www.theracinghorse.co.uk
Featured Image: Chepstow Races | Racecourse | Amanda Slater | Flickr