Can a 70% place strike rate lead to winners?

Continuing with our summer National Hunt theme this month we want to take a closer look at the successes of those trainers who in the recent couple of years have managed to land a winner or two from a select number of runners on the National Hunt Flat.

National Hunt Flat races were created for those horses who have not previously run under anything other than National Hunt Flat or French AQPS races and in GB are restricted to horses aged 7 or less.

Often used as an experience run by trainers before their horses go on to jumps racing the races can be run significantly faster than one would expect for a National Hunt horse but can flag up some good hurdlers if they can run at pace and learn to take a fence comfortably in their stride.

Predicting winners of bumper races is notoriously difficult.

The number of races during July through to September these last 2 years has amounted to 1618.

And interestingly there were almost 50% more Bumper races run last year during July – September than perhaps would have been the norm. We can only assume that getting a run in to a horse given the restrictions COVID had put in place was becoming a priority at this stage.

During the period under question, 2019 to date there are several trainers who have experienced a healthy 70% or more place strike rate with their Bumper runners, and as you know here in the Acorns corner, we quite like a healthy place strike rate. Well at least we know the runners were trying in their races.

Had you backed the bumper runners from these 14 trainers blindly to win since Jan 2019 you would be sitting on nearly 100 points profit to ISP, and nearly 150 points to BFSP.

In fact, an average 50 points a summer in the last 2 years.

Backing the runners each way would have returned an amazing 170 points over the period!

The winning odds vary from the short, priced favourites up to a 25/1 shot, but there is a very even spread of winning prices.

Of course, we are in part looking reflectively, July has been and gone, but interestingly the profit split between the months is pretty consistent too, averaging 30 points.

This seems a simple and straight forward winner to us, if the future shows the same results as the past, which as we are aware is absolutely no guarantee, but we are willing to chance a few hard earned pennies to test the idea.

System 30: Back the above trainers’ bumper runners during the months of August and September.

For Gold readers we have some research into a pair of Irish trainers that are really making an impression and the resulting systems should deliver plenty of profit. If you’d like to upgrade to Gold go to  https://www.oncourseprofits.com/upgrade

Featured Image: (CC BY 4.0)  –  Hurdle Race In Wales | National hunt hurdles race in Wales | Paul | Flickr