UK Racing – The Two year Olds
Hi All, for this piece we are going to delve into the equine world of the juveniles otherwise known as two-year-olds.
Whilst the vast majority of the readers will be aware, there are a number of folk new to horse racing that may not be aware that all Northern Hemisphere horses have their birthday on 1st January.
In the UK traditionally the two-year-old season begins at Doncaster’s – Lincoln Meeting held, dependent upon the calendar, in the last week in March or the first week in April.
The advent and advancement of the all-weather surfaces programmes means that two-year-old horses may have an opportunity to run before the Flat turf season officially begins.
Depending on how the calendar falls, it is sometimes possible for a Flat turf meeting to take place just before the Lincoln Meeting at Doncaster.
The traditional start to the Flat racing season for the 2YO age group is the running of the Brocklesby Stakes run at the Doncaster – Lincoln meeting.
As a result of the 1st January birthday scenario it is important to acknowledge that a horse foaled in January compared to another foaled in May clearly has an advantage in growth, development and maturity.
In the early part of the season, two-year-old racing is restricted to running over 5 furlongs which is steadily increased to 6 furlongs, until finally, towards to end of the Flat season, a maximum race distance for 2YO’s of 1 mile 2 furlongs is permitted.
The summer months in the UK racing calendar are significant as the big Festivals come thick and fast, and as such the better bred and more costly juveniles are introduced to the track often with next year’s classics in mind.
At the time of writing Royal Ascot is just around the corner, so for this article we will be concentrating on the months of July and August and to keep things relevant we will restrict our historical research on the most recent 10-year period (2015-24).
Five of the Best
Having turned to our trusty research tool over on the horseracebase site we find the following statistics.
| Trainer | Bets | Wins | Win % | PL (SP) | ROI % (SP) | PL (BF) | ROI% (BF) | A/E |
| Sangster Ollie | 54 | 13 | 24.07 | 3.55 | 6.57 | 13.65 | 25.28 | 1.11 |
| Balding AM | 574 | 110 | 19.16 | 87.71 | 15.28 | 202.90 | 35.35 | 1.06 |
| Burke KR | 645 | 120 | 18.60 | 80.46 | 12.47 | 248.66 | 38.55 | 1.06 |
| Cox CG | 348 | 58 | 16.67 | 8.61 | 2.47 | 84.15 | 24.18 | 1.01 |
| Ferguson James | 65 | 10 | 15.38 | 10.35 | 15.92 | 21.35 | 32.85 | 1.18 |
You will quickly notice the difference in number of runners for two of the trainers in the above table, namely Ollie Sangster and James Ferguson.
Ollie Sangster
Ollie Sangster is a new kid on the block having taken out a trainer’s license as recent as 2023 but has quickly made an impact.
Being the grandson of the legendary owner/breeder Robert Sangster he has racing in his blood. Robert Sangster had silks in the distinctive blue and green colours which were carried to success in 27 European Classics and over 100 group one races.
Ollie learned his trade by gaining valuable experience with an array of master trainers, including Wesley Ward in the US, Joseph O'Brien in Ireland, David Hayes in Australia and Charlie Hills in Lambourn.
He has based himself at Manton which was acquired by his grandfather in 1984 and is already making his mark as a trainer of the juvenile division with the following stats during July/August.
| Sangster Ollie | Bets | Wins | Win % | PL (SP) | ROI% (SP) | PL (BF) | ROI% (BF) | A/E |
| All | 54 | 13 | 24.07 | 3.55 | 6.57 | 13.65 | 25.28 | 1.11 |
| 2024 | 38 | 8 | 21.05 | -1.31 | -3.45 | 1.96 | 5.15 | 0.90 |
| 2023 | 16 | 5 | 31.25 | 4.86 | 30.38 | 11.70 | 73.10 | 1.79 |
Moving onto the other relatively new kid on the block…
James Ferguson
Having served his time under Racing greats such as Sir Mark Prescott and Jessica Harrington, James Ferguson started his training career in 2019.
In a few short years he has already saddled Zoetic to win The St Hughes’s Fillies Stakes (Listed). In his second season training he picked up his first Group 1 when El Bodegon made all to win the Criterium De Saint-Cloud (Group 1). Prior to this the 2yr old son of Kodiac won the Prix De Conde (Group 3) at Chantilly. James’ success with fillies was showcased again in 2020 when Qatar Racing Limited’s filly Mise En Scene took the Prestige Stakes (Group 3) at Goodwood. In 2022 and into 2023 this success continued with Canberra Legend winning theFeilden Stakes (Listed)at Newmarket and Deauville Legend winning theBahrain Trophy (Group 3) at Newmarket and the Great Voltigeur (Group 2) at York.
| Sangster Ollie | Bets | Wins | Win % | PL (SP) | ROI% (SP) | PL (BF) | ROI% (BF) | A/E |
| All | 65 | 10 | 15.38 | 10.35 | 15.92 | 21.35 | 32.82 | 1.18 |
| 2024 | 7 | 0 | 0 | -7 | -100 | -7 | -100 | 0 |
| 2023 | 29 | 3 | 10.34 | -9.4 | -32.41 | -6.97 | -24.04 | 0.72 |
| 2022 | 4 | 0 | 0 | -4 | -100 | -4 | -100 | 0 |
| 2021 | 10 | 3 | 30.00 | 9 | 90.00 | 11.39 | 113.92 | 1.97 |
| 2020 | 15 | 4 | 26.67 | 21.75 | 145.00 | 27.93 | 186.21 | 2.19 |
Whilst it is clear from the above most of the profit following the yards juveniles during July/August came during 2020-21, we will give them a window of opportunity in 2025 in the hope that the latest batch of 2yo’s can make a decent return.
Moving on next to the more established trio of yards in our original Table starting with…
Andrew Balding
Andrew became the licensed trainer at Kingsclere in 2003, when he succeeded his father, Ian. His training career got off to a perfect start when he saddled Casual Look to win the 2003 Epsom Oaks and since then the yard has gone from strength to strength, increasing in both size and quality.
Many more domestic Group winners have followed, and the yard finished second in the British Trainer’s Championship for 2021, his horses having amassed over £4.4m in UK prize money with a further £1.1m earned abroad.
2023 saw Balding win his third Classic when Chaldean landed the 2,000 Guineas, and nearly £4.5 million in UK prize money resulted in a third place finish in the Trainers Championship.
This was bettered in 2024 with over £5 million won domestically leading to him finishing runner-up, and another £1.5 million won internationally with 167 winners in total leading to a career-best all round.
So how have the juveniles fared in July/August over the most recent decade.
| Balding Andrew | Bets | Wins | Win % | PL (SP) | ROI% (SP) | PL (BF) | ROI% (BF) | A/E |
| All | 574 | 110 | 19.16 | 87.71 | 15.28 | 202.90 | 35.35 | 1.06 |
| 2024 | 70 | 10 | 14.29 | -19.07 | -27.24 | -8.74 | -12.48 | 0.77 |
| 2023 | 90 | 11 | 12.22 | -11.12 | -12.36 | 6.56 | 7.29 | 0.65 |
| 2022 | 68 | 13 | 19.12 | 4.29 | 6.31 | 20.20 | 29.71 | 1.02 |
| 2021 | 70 | 17 | 24.29 | 29.64 | 42.34 | 48.37 | 69.09 | 1.44 |
| 2020 | 56 | 11 | 19.64 | 3.64 | 6.50 | 6.60 | 11.79 | 1.09 |
| 2019 | 41 | 10 | 24.39 | 7.80 | 19.02 | 16.47 | 40.17 | 1.35 |
| 2018 | 59 | 14 | 23.73 | 41.62 | 70.54 | 57.28 | 97.08 | 1.24 |
| 2017 | 34 | 7 | 20.59 | 11.81 | 34.74 | 18.51 | 54.43 | 0.95 |
| 2016 | 44 | 12 | 27.27 | 12.15 | 27.61 | 18.90 | 42.96 | 1.47 |
| 2015 | 42 | 5 | 11.90 | 6.95 | 16.55 | 18.76 | 44.66 | 0.95 |
So out of 10 years only last time around failed to make a profit at BFSP so all being well 2025 will return to normal service.
Karl Burke
One of the more long standing trainers having got started in 1991, and the quality of the horses in his care has improved year on year off the back of numerous notable successes.
Based at the historical Spigot Lodge which is ideally situated between Middleham’s High and Low moor gallops. There have been improvements made to the facilities over the most recent decade, and the yard now has up to 130 stables.
So how have the juveniles fared in July/August over the most recent decade.
| Karl Burke | Bets | Wins | Win % | PL (SP) | ROI% (SP) | PL (BF) | ROI% (BF) | A/E |
| All | 645 | 120 | 18.60 | 80.46 | 12.47 | 248.66 | 38.55 | 1.06 |
| 2024 | 85 | 15 | 17.65 | -16.40 | -19.29 | -8.38 | -9.86 | 0.96 |
| 2023 | 78 | 21 | 29.62 | 9.42 | 12.08 | 20.11 | 25.78 | 1.30 |
| 2022 | 86 | 16 | 18.60 | 76.08 | 88.47 | 103.29 | 120.10 | 0.98 |
| 2021 | 86 | 19 | 22.09 | -5.36 | -6.23 | 6.22 | 7.23 | 1.07 |
| 2020 | 53 | 9 | 16.98 | -23.2 | -43.77 | -21.91 | -41.34 | 0.88 |
| 2019 | 61 | 9 | 14.75 | 3.75 | 6.15 | 36.16 | 59.28 | 0.98 |
| 2018 | 59 | 8 | 13.56 | -1.34 | -2.27 | 17.64 | 29.89 | 0.81 |
| 2017 | 48 | 11 | 22.92 | 1.26 | 2.63 | 2.98 | 6.20 | 1.53 |
| 2016 | 51 | 8 | 15.69 | 56.25 | 110.29 | 111.17 | 217.97 | 1.30 |
| 2015 | 38 | 4 | 10.53 | -20.00 | -52.63 | -18.60 | -48.95 | 0.98 |
In all 7 of the most recent 10 years during Jul/August proved to be profitable on the BFSP.
Finally, we move on to Clive Cox
Clive Cox
Having started his training career on 1999, Cox has gone on to establish himself as one of Britain's leading trainers, with a reputable string of thoroughbreds.
He has a formidable record with training precocious sprinters – typically producing those bought more shrewdly – Clive Cox is equally at home nurturing talented Group 1 winning two-year-olds, as he is planning and landing prominent handicap wins.
Cox has been based at Beechdown Stables, owned by former National Hunt Champion and racing broadcaster, John Francome since 2000. In 2020 he celebrated his ninth Royal Ascot win and tenth Group One success combined, with the victory of Golden Horde in the Commonwealth Cup. Further success was to follow at the 2020 meeting when Nando Parrado went on to win the iconic two-year-old colts Group Two Coventry Stakes the following day.
So how have the juveniles fared in July/August over the most recent decade.
| Clive Cox | Bets | Wins | Win % | PL (SP) | ROI% (SP) | PL (BF) | ROI% (BF) | A/E |
| All | 348 | 58 | 16.67 | 8.61 | 2.47 | 84.15 | 24.18 | 1.01 |
| 2024 | 30 | 5 | 16.67 | 24.50 | 81.67 | 35.16 | 117.21 | 1.36 |
| 2023 | 44 | 11 | 25.00 | 35.16 | 79.91 | 39.85 | 90.56 | 1.51 |
| 2022 | 29 | 3 | 10.34 | 4.50 | 15.52 | 6.42 | 22.15 | 0.96 |
| 2021 | 42 | 5 | 11.90 | -23.87 | -56.83 | -21.42 | -51.00 | 0.77 |
| 2020 | 45 | 11 | 24.44 | 16.94 | 37.64 | 24.80 | 55.10 | 1.41 |
| 2019 | 36 | 7 | 19.44 | 21.35 | 59.31 | 63.89 | 177.48 | 0.99 |
| 2018 | 25 | 2 | 8.00 | -21.82 | -87.28 | -21.79 | -87.17 | 0.41 |
| 2017 | 35 | 7 | 20.00 | -10.90 | -31.14 | -9.35 | -26.72 | 1.00 |
| 2016 | 32 | 6 | 18.75 | -10.13 | -31.66 | -6.33 | -19.77 | 1.09 |
| 2015 | 30 | 1 | 3.33 | -27.12 | -90.40 | -27.08 | -90.27 | 0.23 |
There would appear to be, based on the above data, a clear shift in profits over the most recent trio of years.
As a general rule the yard know the time of day and many of their more fancied runners attract market support. It is therefore surprising that in recent times there have been a number of double figure winners amongst the juvenile division during July/August.
Hopefully that will continue into 2025.
Conclusion
The five trainers noted above appear to offer a good balance of up and coming yards along with more longstanding and established ones.
All also seem to be able to produce their juveniles to win during the July/August period, so keeping things simple we will suggest the following
Back the 2yo runners in non-handicap races during July and August from the Ollie Sangster, Andrew Balding, Karl Burke, Clive Cox and James Fergusons yards in UK races.
Until next time
Steve Carter