Research Corner – Mid-Season Snippets
Hi All. Cheltenham and Aintree are done and dusted, and the new Flat Turf season is underway. Last time around we based our research on trainers that historically got off to a flying start to the Flat campaign.
Following on with a similar theme we are going to move the calendar on a notch and take a look at the yards that have performed well as the season progressed, namely the months of June and July. To keep things relevant and up to date we will stay with the most recent 5 years.
After firing up our trusty friend, the system builder over at http://www.horseracebase.com we find that there were 7 yards that have recorded a winning Strike Rate more than 20% over the research period that are currently still training.
We used a minimum of 50 runners to hopefully provide a decent balance of activity and potential profits.
As you would expect there are several of the big yards in the mix, but the runners from these can be over bet given their high profile, although the A/E of each of Appleby, Prescott, Haggas and Gosden are not far off the 1.00 indicator.
The respective ROI% at the returned Betfair SP indicates that the runners from three of the four big yards could be a fun and simple way to have a flutter with a decent chance of making some profits during May and June.
If we start our deeper dig, we find that there is a simple way to hone in on profits from the first named in the table.
Charlie Appleby
It is clear from the above that close to 20% ROI would have been achieved by blindly following the runners from the Charlie Appleby yard when they were competing in non-handicap races during May and June over the most recent 5 year period.
There is also another factor that literally leapt out when we kept drilling and that was the performance at a duo of tracks and that leads us to the first micro method. Back the runners trained by Charlie Appleby during the months of June and July when they are competing in non-handicap races at Ascot and Newmarket (July course).
Four out of the five years were profitable including 2025 so hopefully it will be fruitful to follow this time around.
The 0.96 A/E achieved by Sir Mark Prescott’s runners over the review period seem worthy of closer inspection.
Sir Mark Prescott
What we find is a stark contrast to the earlier results with Charlie Appleby in that it is the handicappers that have been more fruitful with the Mark Prescott yard as can be seen in the following Table.
Apart from a minor blip in 2023 (-8.7pts to BFSP) the other 4 years were profitable.
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