Issue 138 – The Statman
When the boss asks I do as I am told (I’m old-fashioned like that), and I have been asked to provide an article on Flat trainers similar to one I did a few months back for National Hunt.
The concept remains simple enough (as always) – trainers have different attitudes to the new season, some have a long term plan (for example three races for an official mark and then a particular handicap as the season’s target), others bring their horses along slowly and let them find their own way – but we are looking for those who tune them up for their debuts, perhaps buying or breeding precocious sorts ready to do the business first time out – and maybe land a few bets in the process.
Facilities count for a certain percentage of those most successful (horse walkers, swimming pools, access to decent gallops and so on), but so do other less obvious inputs. Decent other horses in the yard to work them with is paramount if you want to gauge their true abilities, calling in top jockeys to ride work and give their honest assessments another, but the mindset is the main thing – the desire to tune them up to the best of their abilities ahead of their first start, gate training to make sure they hit the stalls running when needed, the right track, going, distance and company – all of those added together create the right conditions for a winner, and my guess is some will be a lot better than others at getting those ingredients just right.
Data used is from 1st January 2012 to 29th March 2026 inclusive, and with profits or losses recorded to Betfair Starting Price (BSP) to a fictional £1 stake as always, Great Britain and Ireland only.
As is the norm, I will start with the bottom line figures.
Flat only, all races, turf and all-weather first time out (by profit) – minimum 10 winners to qualify.
Firstly, I would be surprised if many of you would have picked ANY of the top five (I know I wouldn’t!), but money talks. The strike rates aren’t too good at one in 10 winners but a return on investment (ROI) of 134% is not to be sniffed at – though do note the long losing runs that will need to be managed carefully.
Next, for those who prefer that sort of thing, we will look at the Top 5 in Strike Rate order where I suspect we will see some far more familiar names.
Flat only, all races, turf and all-weather first time out (by strike rate) – minimum 10 winners to qualify.
Close to double the strike rate, shorter losing runs, but an ROI of only 12% - something to consider depending on how you like to place your bets – more winners or more profits?
John Gosden (now John and Thady Gosden) do stand out like a sore thumb – an acceptable strike rate, good profit, and an ROI of close to 18%.
Next, we go to turf and all-weather BUT focus on two-year-olds by profit, minimum 10 winners to qualify.
With an ROI of 45.69% and a one in seven strike rate this comes out fairly pretty with Jane Chapple-Hyam’s figures the highlight for me.
And by strike rate.
Godolphin horses being over bet anyone?
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