Glorious Goodwood: Sire and Jockey pointers…
The five days on the Sussex downs for the Glorious Goodwood meeting provides us with plenty of lively and top-class action to sink our punting and analytical teeth into.
Not only would Goodwood racetrack go down as one of the most pictorial tracks in the country, but it would also rank as one of the trickiest and most complex circuits on the flat racing calendar.
It is a twisting, turning track with plenty of rolling undulations that can catch out even the best and most experienced jockeys in the weighing room, not to mention the horses as well.
With this in mind it is clear that some jockeys can place their mounts better than others in the hustle and bustle of the Goodwood contests, whilst others are left stumbling out the back, unable to tame the complicated circuit and get their horse into a race winning spot.
The same can be said of the offspring of certain sires.
The lay-out of the track just doesn’t play to the strengths of some horses and a lot of that can be traced back to their pedigree and genetics.
This report will dissect both Goodwood sires (good and bad) as well as Goodwood jockeys (again, good, and bad) as we aim to unearth profitable pointers and angles to add to our Goodwood war chest for the Glorious Festival that runs, this year, from Tuesday the 30th of July through to Saturday the 3rd of August.
To add a bit more meat to the bone I decided to look at the stats encompassing ALL races run at Goodwood and not just those run during the Glorious Goodwood meeting.
This will give us a better overall picture and a greater depth of data to work with.
I’ll start this report off by looking into the sire side of things…
*Data sample is from the start of 2016 until middle of June 2024
Goodwood Sires
The following are three sires whose offspring have been profitable to follow (under certain circumstances) and have also produced a healthy number of winner and a robust overall record over the Goodwood undulations in recent seasons…
SEA THE STARS
Sea The Stars himself never set foot on the Sussex Downs but his own sire, Cape Cross, produced numerous progeny that showed a strong liking for the track, and those traits look to have been passed down to his grandkids via the Sea The Stars bloodline...
Overall Goodwood record of the SEA THE STARS offspring
29/134 | 22% S/R | -£8.08 BFLSP – Win & Place 64/134 | 48% S/R
3% above market expectation
The Sea The Stars kids win more than the market expects them to at the track, although produce a small overall loss to Betfair SP, with some of his most notable winners including the likes of Stradivarius, Crystal Ocean, Hukum and Baaeed.
If we drill down into the stats a bit further, we can see a few areas where we can enhance the strike rates and also pull in some profits...
Sea The Stars offspring in Group races at Goodwood have been profitable to follow...
11/26 | 42% S/R | +£28.24 BFLSP – Win & Place 17/26 | 65% S/R
66% above market expectation
Sea The Stars offspring in single figure fields over 1m3f+ trips at Goodwood have been profitable to follow...
17/44 | 39% S/R | +£28.40 BFLSP – W&P 30/44 | 68% S/R
57% above market expectation
Sea The Stars offspring at Goodwood that are the top-rated horse (on official ratings) and rated at least 89 show strong stats...
10/15 | 67% S/R | +£16.31 BFLSP – W&P 11/15 | 73% S/R
67% above market expectation
DUBAWI
Dubawi himself made his racecourse debut at Goodwood, winning a 6-furlong maiden in June 2004 under Frankie Dettori by just over a length.
His offspring also enjoy the unique contours of the Sussex track, with only Sea The Stars siring more winners at the track than Dubawi in the period under analysis...
Overall Goodwood record of the DUBAWI offspring
29/192 | 15% S/R | +£11.75 BFLSP – Win & Place 80/192 | 42% S/R
18% below market expectation
The Dubawi offspring win slightly less than the market expects them to although if backing them all to Betfair SP a profit would have been returned (it was a loss to standard SP).
Notable winners at the track for Dubawi include Wild Illusion, Too Darn Hot, Anna Nerium and New London.
Once we start drilling down into the wider figures, we start to see some very interesting ‘mini-angles’ we can look to profit from...
Dubawi offspring aged 3yo-5yo over 1m2f trips or shorter have been profitable to follow at Goodwood...
22/100 | 22% S/R | +£77.12 BFLSP – Win & Place 47/100 | 47% S/R
23% above market expectation
Dubawi offspring at Goodwood on their 4th or 5th run of the season have been profitable to follow...
20/59 | 34% S/R | +£68.70 BFLSP – W&P 30/59 | 51% S/R
100% above market expectation
GOLDEN HORN
Golden Horn is another of those out of Cape Cross who never himself raced over the Goodwood undulations but, similar to Sea The Stars, has managed to pass down his own sire’s strong ability to produce horses that enjoy the test the twisting and turning track offers...
Overall Goodwood record of the GOLDEN HORN offspring
13/66 | 20% S/R | +£25.01 BFLSP – Win & Place 23/66 | 35% S/R
30% above market expectation
The Golden Horn numbers may not be as deep as the Sea The Stars and Dubawi stats, but the strike-rates are healthy and the profits even more so.
Trawlerman and Gregory would be the two most noteworthy Golden Horn kids to have won at Goodwood to date.
As always, there are a couple of areas we can zone in on to boost the strike-rates and the profits...
Golden Horn offspring aged 3yo & 4yo in single figure fields have been profitable to follow at Goodwood...
9/29 | 31% S/R | +£38.67 BFLSP – Win & Place 14/29 | 48% S/R
54% above market expectation
Golden Horn GB bred Fillies and Colts have been profitable to follow at Goodwood...
10/31 | 32% S/R | +£42.36 BFLSP – Win & Place 16/31 | 52% S/R
54% above market expectation
If we combine the two Golden Horn angles above, then we find an even stronger set of stats to work with...
System: JO-116-25-07-24-BA - Golden Horn 3yo & 4yo GB bred Fillies and Colts in single figure fields at Goodwood...
9/18 | 50% S/R | +£49.67 BFLSP – Win & Place 12/18 | 67% S/R
As well as the above ‘positive’ Goodwood sires there are also, obviously, a group of stallions who’s offspring struggle to act around the twists and turns of the demanding Goodwood circuit.
The following are two prominent sires where the figures tell us we should be careful with, if we are considering backing their offspring at the track...
CAMELOT
Camelot was a dual Derby winner in his own racing days but never actually set hoof on the rolling Sussex Downs. Maybe his connections knew he wouldn’t really be at home at Goodwood, just like his offspring...
Goodwood record of the CAMELOT offspring
3/75 | 4% S/R | -£63.93 BFLSP – Win & Place 15/75 | 20% S/R
71% below market expectation
The Camelot offspring really struggle when racing at Class1, Class 2 & Class 3 level...
Goodwood record of the CAMELOT offspring in C1, C2 & C3 races
0/50 | 0% S/R | -£50 BFLSP – Win & Place 11/50 | 22% S/R
OASIS DREAM
Top-level sprinter Oasis Dream is another that never actually raced at Goodwood himself and if his kids are anything to go by then it was probably a good thing...
Goodwood record of the OASIS DREAM offspring
6/111 | 5% S/R | -£55.31 BFLSP – Win & Place 27/111 | 24% S/R
51% below market expectation
The Oasis Dream offspring suffer the most when there is some cut underfoot...
Goodwood record of the OASIS DREAM offspring on Good to Soft or softer ground
1/40 | 2.5% S/R | -£33.81 BFLSP – Win & Place 7/40 | 18% S/R
78% below market expectation
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