# Racecourse Types

What does the formbook say about undulating courses?

This month, and moving forward, we are going to take a look at specific racecourse types and whether these are instrumental in the performance of favourites.

There are many ‘types’ of racecourse, listed below:

- Left-handed courses
- Right-handed courses
- Easy Courses
- Sharp Courses
- Stiff Courses
- Galloping Courses
- Undulating Courses.

## Undulating courses

The following racecourses are described as ‘undulating courses’.

Brighton, Carlisle, Catterick, Cheltenham, Chepstow, Epsom, Exeter, Fakenham, Folkstone, Goodwood, Hamilton, Hereford, Hexham, Kelso, Leicester, Market Rasen, Plumpton, Pontefract, Sedgefield.

In Ireland, the undulating courses are: Clonmel, Curragh, Down Royal, Downpatrick, Galway, Gowran Park, Kilbeggan, Naas, Navan, Punchestown, Thurles, Tramore, and Wexford.

In this article I will look at how favourites perform at these specific undulating courses. I will look at the last 10 years’ worth of data, and all profit/loss is to Betfair Starting Price.

For the layers, lay profit is to a Backer’s Stake or a Fixed Liability.

## Weight Rank 12

This translates as a favourite being the horse 12^{th} in the weights.

Top weight, for instance, is 1^{st} in the weights. This infers that the horse is, naturally, carrying a low weight.

An excellent profit for the favourite** backer**.

£100 into £1000 to £10 level stakes. Longest losing sequence of 15, average odds of 4.93 decimal and a strike rate of 28.3% over time.

2024 is proving profitable.

## 4 year olds

**Laying** 4 year old favourites at undulating courses has ignited since 3^{rd} November 2019. (Get ‘em while they’re hot?).

Laying to a fixed liability of £10 has made £786 which really stands out. Longest winning sequence of 22, longest losing sequence of 7. 69.5% strike rate over time is likely higher since November 2019.

## 1 run in the last year

It seems a lack of a recent run is problematic on undulating courses for favourites, so **layers** take note… £100 into £680 to a fixed liability of £10 is a good profit. 2024 has seen 6 winners since 21^{st} July which has stopped the profit….temporarily?

The long term prognosis is good.

## 3 runner races

The key to profiting from favourites in 3 runner races is to** lay **these favourites when their decimal odds are 2.00 or lower (evens in old money).

The profit is solid to £10 backer’s stake (£100 into £350) with a solid upward price graph.

When laying nearly exclusively odds on favourites, it’s worth looking at fixed liability, because if you can get a very short priced horse beaten, you make more profit. £100 into £506 to a fixed liability of £10 impresses, and the graph is what really increases confidence, as you’ll see in the accompanying video.

## 4 yo+ 95 races

These races, for favourites, on undulating courses, are ripe for the** layer.** A rock solid upward projecting profit graph, 79% strike rate, longest winning sequence of 22. £100 into £1428 to backer’s stake for the layer. Current winning sequence of 9.

This is the standout so far!

## 6 furlongs LTO

LTO stands for Last Time Out and is a good angle to look in to.

In this instance, **lay favourites** on undulating courses that ran 6 furlongs last time out. £100 into £860 to £10 backers’ stake.

It’s a choppy graph but is a gradual upward projecting graph.

## Doncaster LTO

There is no rhyme or reason why a horse, running previously at Donny, seems to falter on an undulating course in their next race.

£100 into £947 to £10 backers’ stake. If you want to limit risk, then to a £10 fixed liability, £100 has turned into £ £619.

What particularly attracts me is the solid bottom left to top right profit graph.

## Downpatrick

Again, a** layer’s** dream. £100 into £838 to £10 backer’s stake for the layer Current winning sequence of 8, it seems Downpatrick’s undulations are too much for favourites!

The fixed liability option is there. £100 into £500 to £10 fixed liability. If you want to control risk, this is your viable option.

## Drawn 14 LTO

Please don’t ask me to explain why today’s favourite, when drawn 14 last time out, is a good** backing **proposition!

£100 into £651 to £10 level stakes, profits in 2023 and 2024 so far augurs well. And the price graph, yet again, is compelling.

Only 6 bets so far in 2024 but the last 3 qualifiers have all won.

## Epsom

2023 and 2024 profits for the** layer **(2022 was not profitable). Fancy sticking with laying favourites at this famous undulating course? 75% strike rate over time. Longest losing sequence over time of only 4 should provide some solace.

£100 into £718 to £10 backer’s stake.

## Goodwood

**Back **at Goodwood. £100 into £1265 to £10 level stakes is the best 10 year profit to date. Losses since 27^{th} September 2023 is a slight concern but are you more taken by the long term profit trend for the backer? 2023 was excellent, 2024 is currently in a loss position. I’ll show you the profit graph in the video.

Do factor in a longest losing sequence of 16 if you are to pursue this angle.

**Grade 2**

Another** laying **angle on undulating courses. The laying profit is particularly strong since 2020. £446 profit to £10 backer’s stake since Jan 1^{st} 2020.

Longest losing sequence of 5 over the last 10 years should instil confidence. Profits continue in 2024.

## Greater than 10-20 lengths to the winner LTO

LTO stands for Last Time Out. The proximity to the winner LTO has produced a **layers **profit for favourites on undulating courses.

Since 5^{th} December 2019, the profit has lit up. £1097 to £10 backer’s stake is very impressive. I will show you in the video how to spot potential qualifiers.

£218 to £10 backer’s stake in 2024 augurs well.

## Handicap Limit 95

Look for these races. More **laying **profits. £100 into £1112 to £10 backers stake and a solid recent profit graph, particularly since 2021 so ‘catch em while they’re ( not) hot!!’.

Longest winning sequence of 27 and longest losing sequence of 4 can suggest a more exotic staking plan such as Lay 1-4 staking plan can enhance profit as is the case here. £10 starting stakes, £100 turned into £3524. Nice! More discussion on Lay 1-4 in the video.

## Handicap Limit LTO 80

Note this is LTO – last time out.

A chance for favourite **backers** to profit. £100 into £1275 to £10 level stakes. 30.5% strike rate, 4.07 average decimal odds, longest losing sequence of 18 in the last 10 years should hint at the size of betting bank required.

This interests me because at no stage in 10 years did the betting bank drop below it’s original size. The profit graph too is an encouraging diagonal line left to right. I have no reason why this profit is so compelling. I will show you how to find all LTO information in the video.

## Brian Hughes Jockey LTO

**Lay** any favourite ridden by Brian Hughes Last Time Out. 2024 sees a slight loss but we tend to see a year-end profit. £100 into £858 to £10 backers’ stake.

## Limerick LTO

A rare victory for the** backer** when backing Favourites after they last ran at Limerick. Again, no rhyme or reason behind the profits, just follow them! £100 into £889 to £10 level stakes. Another nice diagonal price graph. Longest losing sequence of 16.

## Naas LTO

**Layers **look at favourites who ran at Naas Last Time Out.

£100 into £1149 to £10 backer’s stake. Longest winning sequence of 18, 71% strike rate. It even profits to fixed liability of £10 for example, £100 into £736.

## Richard Fahey

Richard Fahey, the trainer, seems to get a tune out of his favourites on undulating courses, particularly since October 2016 where **backing **his favourites has made £693 to £10 level stakes and that encouraging diagonal price graph which you’ll see in the video. Longest losing sequence of 20 should be factored in if pursuing this angle.

## Jockey Silvestre De Sousa

Another **backer’s** profit here, £100 into £726 to £10 level stakes backing De Sousa ridden favourites.

Absent in 2023, he is profiting marginally in 2024.

## Sire Country Japan

Only 123 qualifiers over time but there have been 9 in 2024 and a** layer’**s profit. Over time, £100 into £388 to £10 backer’s stake is modest but is still profiting year on year.

## Conclusions

The accompanying video will show you how to find qualifiers. Layers are clearly favoured on undulating courses but there are some notable exceptions for the backer such as

- Jockey Silvestre De Sousa
- Trainer Richard Fahey
- Limerick LTO
- Handicap Limit LTO 80
- Goodwood (over time)
- Drawn 14 LTO (no reason why but go with it!!)
- Weight Rank 12

**Clive Keeling**