Curragh Horse Racing Tips for Today
The Racing Horse offers their Curragh Racecourse Template for Saturday 31 August 2024.
There are 3 Group 3s, 3 Handicaps and a 2yo Maiden Race.
The going is expected to be good.
WINNING FAVOURITES (5 years)
Non-handicap Handicap
2yo 84-214 39% -22.50 3-23 13% -12.50
3yo 66-164 40% -6.24 18-86 21% -8.71
4yo+ 39-104 38% -17.60 47-217 22% -24.68
TOTAL 189-482 39% -46.33 68-326 21% -45.89
TOP 5 TRAINERS at CURRAGH for past 5 years +/- R
A P O'Brien (22%) 143-684 21% -133.84 -1% 9
Joseph O'Brien (14%) 69-691 10% -87.68 -4% 9
Mrs J Harrington (11%) 48-532 9% -153.88 -2% 4
G M Lyons (17%) 41-322 13% -59.50 -4% 1
J P Murtagh (11%) 41-373 11% -33.87 +0% 7
TOP 5 JOCKEYS at CURRAGH for past 5 years +/- R
Colin Keane (15%) 82-560 15% -71.75 +0% 5
Ryan Moore (34%) 81-270 30% -25.15 -4% 6
W J Lee (13%) 57-453 13% +113.10 +0% 5
Shane Foley (11%) 46-467 10% -92.34 -1% 4
S Heffernan (12%) 44-338 13% -130.97 +1% 3
FIXTURES
Saturday 31 August 2024
Sunday 15 September 2024
RACECOURSE: The Curragh is Ireland's largest racing training ground containing 80 miles of gallops over 1,500 acres.
The racecourse is a horseshoe shaped, right-handed course with no sharp bends over two miles with a straight run-in of three furlongs slightly uphill. There are starts at five furlongs, six furlongs, six furlongs 63 yards, seven furlongs and a mile on a straight course.
A high draw provides a slight advantage on the straight course in big fields, though in any given instance pace and positional bias usually counts for more.
FAVOURITES: Winning favourites at the Curragh score 257-708 for 36.30% (-92.22) so around +3% above the national average.
Winning favourites in handicaps perform badly scoring at just 21%. Best category on strike rate are 3yo winning favourites in non-handicaps showing 66-164 for 40% (-6.24) whilst worst category are 2yo in nursery handicaps scoring 3-23 for 13% (-12.50) albeit from a very small sample.
The trainer national average is the strike rate of the trainer over 5 years (as opposed to all-time figures) and it is imperative to know what that is! This strike rate is deemed to be an honest indicator, a barometer, an impartial yardstick against which current form can be measured.
TRAINERS: None of the top trainers at the Curragh score above their national averages showing how hard it is to have winners at this course. That said Aidan O'Brien reigns supreme here.
Aidan O'Brien has disfigured numbers at the Curragh! He has a national average of 22% yet scores -1% below and 21% at the course, largely because of multiple entries.
Tomorrow's meeting is another/typical case in point! His score at the course over the past 5 years show 143-684 for 21% (-133.84). His runners tomorrow include ACAPULCO BAY & GENEALOGY 1.45, DREAMY & GARDEN OF EDEN 2.20, CELTIC CHIEFTAIN & IDES OF MARCH 2.50, WINGSPAN 3.25, SWEET CHARIOT 4.00 and OLD FAITHFUL 4.35. The trainer looks certain to have multiple winners,
Joseph O'Brien (14%) also has 9 runners including EMIT 1.45, SIGH NO MORE 2.20, RUDI'S APPLE & WOMP WOMP 2.50, ULURU, UNREASONABLE & ADELAIS 3.25, GIRL LIKE YOU 4.00 and WIGMORE STREET 4.35
JOCKEYS: Ryan Moore has a 34% Irish national average and scores 30% at the course.
He has 6 rides including ACAPULCO BAY 1.45, DREAMY 2.20, IDES OF MARCH 2.50, WINGSPAN 3.25, SWEET CHARIOT 4.00 & WIGMORE STREET 4.35. Five of these runners are for Aidan O'Brien but the last one is for his son Joseph O'Brien. Ryan Moore looks nailed on to ride multiple winners.
Colin Keane (15%) is top jockey at Curragh (before this meeting) scoring one more winner than Ryan Moore. Keane scores 82-560 for 15%) to Ryan Moore's 81-270 for 30%. He has 5 rides including ALLA STELLA 2.20, MORNING VIETNAM 2.50, SAKTI 3.25, SUGAR CLUB 4.00 & STATE ACTOR 4.35.
OWNERS: It is impossible to verbalise, score or rationalise the leading owners at this racecourse! On any given day we cannot be sure who owns what, regarding percentage share, between Derrick Smith, Mrs John Magnier, Michael Tabor and Westerberg.
A combination of these names in appearing in various orders occupy 4 of the top 5 positions on the Curragh leader board.
RED FLAG: The Racing Horse believes mathematics is the governing force of horse racing betting, and our Racecourse Templates not only confirm certain strike rates and where they reside, but contextualises their relevance.
For example, we know Aidan O'Brien has an Irish national average of 22% over the past 5 years, but when Ryan Moore combines with him they score 174-495 for a massive 35% (-14.33). From this sample (+13%) it is possible to make a profit from the combination with just a modicum of filtration and good staking practices at best prices!
The competitiveness of this pairing is often lost in the racing brouhaha and finding perceived value is often easier than one imagines. Within the combination figures above, there are 97 second places contained within them, meaning 271-495 for 55% finish first or second making it a fabulous tool for exotics! Knowing an Aidan O'Brien and Ryan Moore booking is going to finish first or second in over half of the races must constitute an edge for bettors, and we offer this opinion as another way of making a profit from racing!
This combination offer another 5 opportunities in ACAPULCO BAY 1.45, DREAMY 2.20, IDES OF MARCH 2.50, WINGSPAN 3.25 & SWEET CHARIOT 4.00. Please note, all of the above is not subject to fatigue, at least not in the near future! Thinking of the future, Aidan O'Brien has scored 38-111 for 34% (+18.33) with his 2yos this current year which bodes well for the Classic year next year!
By the way, last Saturday jockey Ryan Moore rode 4 winners from 4 rides at the Curragh for 100% at prices of 7/4, 5/6, 1/16 and 6/1, and August in Ireland shows him 12-19 for 63% (+9.53) and of those he was beaten on, 5 finished in second place!
Pertinence and Pertaining
1.45 (Winning favourites 39%)
ACAPULCO BAY (A O'Brien) RPR 93 and a big eyecatcher when 2nd on debut, Group 1 entry, trainer has won 9 of the last 10 runnings, Ryan Moore rides
EMIT (J O'Brien) caught the eye doing his best work late on debut 5th, having been stopped in his run. Declan McDonogh rides
GENEAOLOGY (A O'Brien) 400,000gns purchase, trainer has won 9 of the last 10 runnings, Wayne Lordan rides
2.20 (Winning favourites 39%)
DREAMY (A O'Brien) winner on debut and potential for considerable improvement, trainer has won 4 of the last 10 runnings, Ryan Moore rides
GARDEN OF EDEN (A O'Brien) winner in the last 7 days, trainer has won 4 of the last 10 runnings. Wayne Lordan rides
ALLA STELLA (M Prescott) trainer 33-95 for 35% (+3.60) when sending runners to Ireland, Colin Keane rides
2.50 (Winning favourites 39%)
IDES OF MARCH (A O'Brien) C&D winner last time out, described as ‘big, powerful and fast and probably a Group sprinter' by his trainer. Trainer has won 4 of the last 10 runnings, Ryan Moore rides
RUDI'S APPLE (J O'Brien) C&D winner, drops from Group 1 to Group 3, Declan McDonogh rides
3.25
WINGSPAN (A O'Brien) 2 wins from 3 starts, unexposed and well-bred, trainer has won 4 of the last 10 runnings. Ryan Moore rides
SAKTI (G Lyons) beaten favourite last time out, Colin Keane rides
HANALIA (J Murtagh) course winner, drops from Group 1 to Group 3, performed with plenty of credit upped to 1½m in the Irish Oaks, this trip better. Ben Coen rides
12/12: Ran within the last 45 days (100%)
12/12: At least 5 previous runs (100%)
12/12: At least 1 previous flat win (100%)
11/12: Aged 3yo (92%)
11/12: Previously ran at the Curragh (92%)
11/12: At least 4 runs that season (92%)
0/12: Won a Group 1-3 race (0%)
4.00 (Winning favourites 13%)
KING THISTLE (J Murtagh) trainer has won the last 2 runnings, Patrick McGettigan (10) rides
GIRL LIKE YOU (J O'Brien) course winner last time out, pick of the weights, Declan McDonogh rides
SWEET CHARIOT (A O'Brien) handicap debutante, first time blinkers, Ryan Moore rides
4.35 (Winning favourites 22%)
GENUINE ARTICLE (G Keane) beaten favourite last time out, first time cheek pieces. James Ryan rides
COUER D'OR (D Weld) trainer has won 2 of the last 5 runnings, Chris Hayes rides
PLUME NOIRE (B Duff) beaten favourite last time out, Joseph Sheridan rides
STATE ACTOR (W Farrell) C&D winner, beaten favourite last time out, 2-3 at the course, Colin Keane rides
5.10
I'M SPARTACUS (A McGuinness) beaten favourite last time out, Cian MacRedmond rides
GOLDMOYNE (T Doyle) 2-2 at the course, Amy Jo Hayes (4) rides
SECRET MAGICIAN (M Hassett) C&D winner, Wayne Hassett rides
NEVER CRY NEVER (G O'Leary) trainer +£12.00 with horses running after a break, Jack Cleary (2) rides
The Curragh is lovely track. In general the round courses are very fair, but one thing I would say is that the Derby track is quite different to the Plate track. It’s quite deceptive when looking at it from the stands, but there’s an awful lot of turning on the Derby track and a low draw is definitely a help. On the sprint track, when they race up against the stand side, a high draw is always favoured to one extent or another no matter what the ground is like, as there is a gradual camber from the stand side down to the far side, so the stand side is always that bit drier. When they move the running rail out into the middle of the straight track, the draw isn’t quite as important, but high numbers are still best. Over the mile/seven furlong tracks, I don’t think there are any great biases, though they do tend to come across to the middle or even the stand side when the ground is on the soft side – Mick Kinane
Paul Moon – The Racing Horse