Lingfield Racecourse is located in Lingfield, Surrey and has both a polytrack All Weather course, and a Turf course used for Flat racing during the summer and National Hunt during the winter, so offering all year round action. Lingfield is the busiest racecourse in Europe.
There are eight meetings scheduled for December including on New Year’s Eve. The dates of the scheduled meetings are as follows:
By the train the course is located just a short walk from Lingfield station, and by car can be accessed from J6 off the M25, or J3 off the M10. There is plenty of free parking which can be found on Racecourse Road and is clearly signposted.
The course is in the heart of a 450 acre estate and dates to the 19th century, originally opened for jumps racing but was granted permission to run flat races in 1894.
The course was the venue for the first ever Derby trials in 1932 closely followed by the first Oaks trial race, and these races continue to this day at the course each year. Racing at the course only ever having been interrupted during World War II when the site was requisitioned by the War Office for use as a prisoner of war internment camp for Italian soldiers.
1987 saw the permission granted for the addition of the all weather track, the first artificial racetrack to be installed in the UK, with the opening in November 1989.
The National Hunt track is left handed and undulating and interestingly the going often means that the track suffers more abandonments per meeting than any other course. If a horse can gain a handy position in front going into the straight this can offer rewards, particularly over the fences which are straightforward.
National Hunt Bumper races are in the main now run on the All Weather track and are almost always falsely run races which count against the sturdier bred true National Hunt runners. You can view the chase and hurdle course maps here.
The All Weather course is a left handed track which has been laid inside the turf course. The All Weather track measures a little shorter than a mile and a quarter in the round and is fairly sharp. Stamina horses rarely gain the upper hand but a horse with a good turn of foot will often prevail. On the sprint distances those runners who run at the head of the field tend to win more races than those held up in the field. You can view the course here.
The Turf Flat course is also left handed and is a round course over a mile and a half. There is a downhill turn into the straight which means that those runners which take advantage at this point can be difficult to reach. The course in the main runs sharply.
Stats shown cover the period of 1st January 2017 to the time of writing (10th November 2022).
Once again, we are using www.horseracebase.com for the stats.
We’ll start with general meeting stats from the last five years.
As would be expected, All Weather racing dominates at Lingfield with more than three times as many All Weather races as the National Hunt and Turf Flat combined.
This time around we will look at the National Hunt and All Weather racing at Lingfield, leaving the Turf Flat for another day.
National Hunt – Fate of the Favourites
Clear, joint and co-favourites have produced the following results:
100 winners from 293 runners a 34.13% strike rate giving a level stakes loss of just 17.95 points and a profit, albeit small at BFSP, and an almost 70% place strike rate is worthy of note too.
If we break those runs down between Handicap and Non Handicap races, we find that we would have turned a profit at BFSP backing the Handicap favourites blindly.
In fact, excluding the odds on shots (who wants to be backing them anyway), the past two years (2021 and 2022 to date) have both been profitable backing at Starting Prices and Betfair SP.
Venetia Williams and Gary (GL) Moore’s runners when going off as favourite seem to have excelled since January 2021, with them having had 11 of the 20 greater than evens priced favourite winners between them. We’ll have another look at this a little later.
All Weather – Fate of the Favourites
903 winners from 2668 runners, a 33.85% strike rate giving a level stakes loss of 224.22 points.
1669 of the runner’s place. A 62.56% place strike rate.
If we break these results down into Handicap and Non-Handicap races gives us:
Non-Handicap – 357 winners from 779 runners, a strike rate of 45.83% giving a level stakes profit of +1.02 A/E 0.99.
572 placed a 73.43% place strike rate.
Handicap – 546 winners from 1889 runners, a strike rate of 28.9% giving a level stakes loss of -225.24. A/E 0.89.
1097 placed a 58.07% place strike rate.
Digging a bit deeper let’s focus on favourites that won their last race.
Favourites that won their last race have produced – 274 winners from 753 runners, a strike rate of 36.39% for a level stakes loss of -79.84 points. A/E 0.91.
490 placed a 65.07% place strike rate.
Those favourites who had finished outside the first four on their last start.
Favourites that had finished outside the top four on their last start produced – 205 winners from 625 runners 32.80% and a loss of -32.21 pts to level stakes. A/E 0.98.
373 placed, a 59.68% strike rate.
Favourites don’t appear to offer much in terms of profits although there may be something with Non Handicap runners on the All Weather.
Claimers, Sellers and Maidens
The top of the market runners at Lingfield (AW) running in Claimers, Sellers and Maidens have had a 53.89% since 2018 and would have given you a profit each year.
Pay particular attention if they placed on their last run.
Being able to place your bet as close to the off as possible is pretty impossible for many of us, but if you are able to it may be something worth looking at.
The Venetia Williams and Gary Moore runners when going off as favourite seem to have excelled during 2021+, but as we all are too aware, unless you can wait until the final moments before a race goes off it is almost impossible to know which runner will go off favourite. However, as trainers go, we know both are good at their job and so their runners merit further investigation given their more recent form.
Had you backed their runners blindly from 2017 to date when running at Lingfield you would have secured a modest profit to level stakes of 15.89 points.
But look at the year on year results.
The strike rate for these two combined has certainly been interesting, and the prices of the runners at Lingfield so far this year have obviously been higher than you would expect.
Venetia Williams’s Handicap Chasers at Lingfield are the ones of interest. (Her Non Handicap runners 2020+ are 0 from 9 and her Handicap Hurdlers 0 from 2).
Her runners will tend to be at the top end of the market and all but one of the winners has been carrying 11st or more. There are occasional double-figure priced runners landing in the places, and we think it may well be worth backing her Handicap Chasers at Lingfield, for December.
We will look to back on the Exchanges. If you can get greater than 4.00 back the runner in the Win and Place markets. 4.00 or less, back to Win Only.
System 91: Back Venetia Williams’s Handicap Chasers at Lingfield using the Exchanges to Win and Place (Win Only if 4.00 or less).
Moore’s runners at Lingfield have been on fire.
And 2022 has been exceptional with a 40% strike rate.
It is no surprise again that his Handicap runners offer the value, both on the Hurdle and the Chase courses, but the chase runners have landed a 50% strike rate at Lingfield since 2020.
Hurdlers – His Handicap Novice Hurdlers have been 0 from 4 but his Handicap Hurdlers have been 5 from 18, and 4 of those have been over 2m (10 from 11 of the runners over distances greater than 2m have failed to hit the frame.
Chasers – His 3milers + have failed to make the grade but keeping away from the 3m+ chases Moore has had a win strike rate more than 50% with his Handicap Chasers at Lingfield in recent years since 2020.
There is a 28/1 winner in the mix in the figures above, but even allowing for this you would still be showing a profit. Interestingly his runners seem to either win, or they don’t so on that basis we feel comfortable backing to Win Only.
System 89: Back Gary (GL) Moore’s Handicap Chasers and Hurdlers (Not Novices) at Lingfield using the Exchanges to Win only when running over less than 3 miles.
Finding a winner on the All Weather at Lingfield feels a little like finding a needle in a haystack!
With 2449 races having been run on the Lingfield All Weather so far at the time of writing, we’ll see if we can concentrate on recent trainer performances.
Two trainer’s standout with performances this year at Lingfield, Conrad Allen and Amy Murphy.
A 35% win strike rate and a 50% place strike rate this year at Lingfield is interesting. Historically we wouldn’t have looked twice at his runners based on past performance, but something has come right in 2022 for this small stable. Multiple wins for Impeach and Mick’s Spirit may mean that we have seen the best from the stable, but it is worth us following over the coming weeks to see if there is any more profit to be had from his handicap runners at Lingfield.
Again, his runners either win or they don’t so we’ll be backing on the Exchanges to Win Only.
System 88: Back Conrad (CN) Allen’s Handicap runners at Lingfield to Win Only on the Exchanges.
A small profit backing Amy Murphy’s runners at Lingfield since 2020 to date, but a profit, nonetheless.
Again, the handicappers are the ones which have turned the profit but a win strike rate for the handicappers of almost 19% still doesn’t add to our confidence that further profits are likely to be forthcoming.
Her sprinters over 5f-6f are just 1 win from 15 runners so avoiding her sprinters at Lingfield can help to preserve some profit.
The largest part of that profit has come this year, and prices of winners in general have been 9/2 upwards. Interestingly though again, the runners either win or they don’t so, don’t worry about backing Win and Place as there is nothing to gain backing Each Way.
System 87: Back Amy Murphy’s Handicap runners when running over 7f or further and Lingfield Win Only on the Exchanges.
It will be no surprise to see Jamie Moore topping the National Hunt Jockey’s table since 2020, almost double his nearest rival…Joshua Moore…there’s a family theme running here.
Joshua sustained a horrendous fall at Haydock in April of this year, suffering broken ribs, a broken leg, and a punctured lung, together with damage to his lower back. He then spent several weeks in critical care as it became touch and go following complications with a chest infection.
Three months later he was still in hospital, but roll forward to the 18th August and his colleagues were forming a guard of honour for him Fontwell Park as he walked through the line.
Whether he will ride again after having had a fall which damaged his lower back, back in October 2021 alongside these injuries is anyone’s guess, though he says that he is “finding race riding hard to let go”! It must be in the blood.
No surprise that all of Jamie Moore’s rides have been for his dad. (We think we have that one covered).
Jockeys heading the top of the table in terms of the number of winning rides (minimum of 10 rides over the period 2020 to date).
The top 10 performing jockeys for the period we are looking at may land the winners, but only two have landed a profit. David Probert and Sean (SM) Levey.
We really feel that we want to run and hide when we look at David Probert as we flagged him up as a jockey to follow at Salisbury back in September, and he let us down.
In fact, only one of his nine rides finished in the places!
Maybe he is better suited to the All Weather?
He’s had a 15.58% win strike rate on the All Weather at Lingfield since January 2020 and that strike rate has been pretty consistent throughout, but when we look at the year on year results, we can see clearly that 2021 threw in nearly all of the profits and would suggest a large, priced winner.
When we looked at the runners in 2021 almost half (10) of those 21 winners in 2021 came from runners priced 9/1-50/1, so we may feel that there is a chance of profit, but 2022 shows a different picture.
Had we taken the picture of 2021 forward and backed all his rides during 2022 where they went off in the price bracket of 9/1-50/1 you would have back 0 winners from 29 runners!
Proof immortal that back fitting can be a killer for the profits of the future.
Since 2020 backing Sean Levey’s rides at Wolverhampton would have seen a 20.92% strike rate and a profit to ISP of 45.83, and as we can see below, recent performances have been consistent with that 20% strike rate. With just a small loss in 2021.
His recent performances merit further investigation.
His rides have been for a prolific number of trainers over the years 2020 to date, but the 32 winners have come from just 11 trainers and multiple wins from just 5 trainers, Richard Hannon (Jnr)-yard jockey, Brian Meehan, Rod Millman, Amanda Perrett, and Stuart Williams, with an almost 30% strike rate.
Being the jockey for Richard Hannon Jnr means that we may not see him riding that often for other trainers at Lingfield, but we think it may be worthwhile keeping an eye when he is riding at Lingfield for the aforementioned. Because of the price of the runners, particularly from the Hannon yard, there is no benefit in backing the runners to place so stick to Win only.
System 86: Back runners at Lingfield when ridden by Sean Levey for one of the above trainers to Win Only using the Betfair Exchange.