Kempton Racing Tips for Today
The Racing Horse offers their Kempton All Weather Racecourse Template for Saturday 7 September 2024.
There is a 7-race card containing 2 Group 3s and 5 Handicap Races.
The Polytrack surface is expected to ride standard to slow.
Winning Favourites (5 Years)
Non-handicap Handicap
2yo 112-290 39% -49.62 39-108 36% +0.58
3yo 145-294 49% -10.30 153-478 32% -43.34
4yo+ 46-106 43% -4.71 248-781 32% -75.70
TOTAL 303-690 44% -64.63 440-1367 32% -118.46
Winning Favourites (Current Year)
Non-handicap Handicap
2yo 8-25 32% -1.76 1-4 25% -2.64
3yo 29-59 49% -1.34 28-70 40% +6.59
4yo+ 5-13 38% -0.82 49-133 37% +0.77
TOTAL 42-97 43% -3.92 78-207 38% +4.72
TOP 5 TRAINERS at KEMPTON past 5 years +/- E
Andrew Balding (15%) 86-530 16% -3.55 +1% 3
Charlie Appleby (29%) 71-210 34% -36.04 +5% 0
Roger Varian (20%) 62-264 23% -33.23 +3% 2
Richard Hannon (11%) 50-455 11% -110.75 +0% 4
J & T Gosden (21%) 47-241 20% -60.92 -1% 3
TOP 5 TRAINERS at KEMPTON 2024 +/- E
Andrew Balding (15%) 18-99 18% -3.06 +3% 3
Richard Hughes (14%) 12-41 29% +12.69 +15% 1
Charlie Appleby (29%) 11-25 44% +0.19 +17% 0
William Haggas (22%) 8-33 24% +0.89 +2% 3
E J-Houghton (12%) 8-38 21% -5.55 +9% 1
TOP 5 JOCKEYS at KEMPTON past 5 years +/- R
Oisin Murphy (19%) 93-475 20% -81.04 +1% 0
David Probert (12%) 92-758 12% -38.16 +0% 0
Daniel Muscutt (13%) 82-606 14% -110.04 +1% 0
William Buick (23%) 76-322 24% -73.37 +1% 0
Hollie Doyle (15%) 75-552 14% -130.71 -1% 0
TOP 5 JOCKEYS at KEMPTON 2024 +/- R
Oisin Murphy (19%) 22-111 20% -37.82 +1% 0
Tom Marquand (15%) 17-77 22% +13.40 +7% 6
Billy Loughnane (14%) 15-84 18% +36.91 +4% 0
Rossa Ryan (16%) 14-92 15% -31.94 -1% 0
Daniel Muscutt (13%) 13-91 14% -10.41 +1% 0
TOP 5 OWNERS at Kempton past 5 years +/- E
Godolphin (25%) 100-357 28% -76.71 +3% 0
King Power (13%) 25-130 19% -27.31 +6% 1
Shadwell Est (23%) 20-74 27% +4.88 +4% 0
Juddmonte (22%) 17-62 27% -2.51 +5% 2
Opulence Thoro (18%) 16-56 29% +5.85 +11% 1
Upcoming Fixtures:
Saturday 7 September 2024
Monday 16 September 2024
CONFIGURATION: Kempton is a right-handed, Polytrack, flat, oval-shaped course with two loops.
The inner circuit, used for races over five and ten furlongs is sharp and has a finishing straight of just under two furlongs, favouring the speedy, handy type, markedly so over the minimum trip. The turn on the outer course is more sweeping and the straight is approximately three furlongs long, making for a fairer test.
Over both five and six furlongs, there is a relatively short run to the first bend.
FAVOURITES: Kempton Racecourse Template provides a huge sample giving the figures real weight and substance! Winning favourites at the course over the past 5-years show 743-2057 for 36.12% and a level stake loss of -183.09, so +3% of the national average.
Non-handicap winning favourites score at 44% as opposed to handicap favourites who score at 32% for a significant 12% differential.
- Best category are 3yo favs in non-handicaps 145-294 for 49% (-10.30)
- Worst category are 4yo favs in handicaps 248-781 for 32% (-77.70)
- Best versus the worst category shows a significant differential of 17%.
- Winning 3yo favourites in non-handicap score at a big 49% and a micro-system with just a modicum of filtration. The strike rate of 49% over the past 5 years is being replicated again this current year, so a constant and something to work from!
- First and second in the market at Kempton win at 52.98%.
TRAINERS: There are 3 trainers of interest tomorrow. The in form William Haggas (22%) scores 26% at the course and has 3 runners and looks likely to win at least one race, his runners include HAMISH 2.35, KILT 3.15 & COCO ROYALE 5.30 all to be ridden by Tom Marquand.
Andrew Balding (15%) is the top trainer at the course for 2024 and in the last 5 years and he has 3 runners including JOUNCY 2.00, KALPANA 2.35 & DESERT COP 4.20
J & T Gosden (21%) also has 3 runners including LION'S PRIDE 2.35, GOD'S WINDOW 2.35 & ENRICO CARUSO 4.55
JOCKEYS: Tom Marquand (15%) looks the jockey to follow for this meeting. He has 6 rides including 3 beaten favourites last time out. His rides include SYMBOL OF STRENGTH 2.00, HAMISH (bf) 2.35, KILT (bf) 3.15, PATSY SNUGFIT 3.45, DRAMA (bf) 4.20 & COCO ROYALE 5.30.
Stop at a winner?
OWNERS: Normally the leading owners at a racecourse are a useful source of winners, but we cannot see an obvious winner from 4 runners from 3 different owners where KALPANA looks to have an each way chance at least.
King Power (13%) run GREATGADIAN 3.15 trained by Roger Varian and ridden by Jack Mitchell and is not expected to trouble the judge.
Juddmonte (22%) have 2 runners including JOUNCY 2.00 (drawn 10 of 10) & KALPANA 2.35 trained by Andrew Balding and ridden by P J McDonald.
OPPULENCE THOROUGHBREDS (19%) run AZURE ANGEL 4.20 trained by Roger Varian and ridden by Jack Mitchell.
Pertinence and Pertaining
2.00 (Winning favourites 39%)
SYMBOL OF STRENGTH (A Keatley) OR 107, Tom Marquand rides
PRINCIPALITY (R Hannon) beaten favourite last time out, Neil Callan rides
IT AIN'T TWO (H Palmer) winner in the last 7 days, Harry Davies rides.
SIRENIA STAKES (Group 3) 6f
12/12: At least 1 win that season (100%)
10/12: Ran within last 24 days (83%)
10/12: At least 4 previous runs (83%
9/12: Rated 97 or higher (75%)
2.35
HAMISH (W Haggas) C&D winner, beaten favourite last time out running below par, bounce back expected from this 8yo. Tom Marquand rides
LION'S PRIDE (J & T Gosden) C&D winner, won 2 of 3 starts at this course, form of all 3 races proving to be strong, Kieran Shoemark rides
KALPANA (A Balding) unraced as 2yo made it 3 from 6 this year, won Hamilton Listed 50 days ago by 4½l, P J McDonald rides
SEPTEMBER STAKES (Group 3) 1m4f
11/12: At least 7 previous flat run (92%)
10/12: At least 4 previous flat wins (83%)
10/12: Rated 111 or higher (83%)
10/12: Aged between 4yo to 6yo (83%)
10/12: Top 3 are in the betting (83%)
10/12: At least 2 previous runs over 12f (83%)
3.15
KILT (W Haggas) beaten favourite last time out, least exposed boasting strong 3yo form, trainer has won 2 of the last 10 runnings. Tom Marquand rides
HELM ROCK (D & C Kubler) C&D winner, weighted to win 94 > 86, trainer +£22.69 when one runner at a meeting. Pat Cosgrave rides
TALIS EVOLVERE (R Hannon) C&D winner, consistent in host of valuable turf handicaps, very much a player and place chance, Sam Hitchott rides.
3.45
FEARLESS FREDDY (Muir & Grassick) drops from Class 2 to Class 4, shaped better than result in competitive Glorious Goodwood nursery 5 weeks ago, Lewis Edmunds rides
CHESNEYS CHARM (M Bell) seeking hat-trick, Kieran Shoemark rides
4.20
DRAMA (J Ferguson) beaten favourite last time out, Tom Marquand rides
HEATHCLIFFE (J Fanshawe) seeking fourth win from 5 starts in AW handicaps, Saffie Osborne rides
INTERVENTION (M Appleby) weighted to win 87 . 84, Harry Davies rides
4.55
ENRICO CARUSO (J & T Gosden) posted career best winning 7-runner Sandwn 44 days ago. Up 9lb higher, more to come over longer trip. Trainer 22% with horses 10f+, Kieran Shoemark rides
ASSAIL (D Simcock) last time out winner, career best winning 7-runner Ascot handicap 43 days ago, Luke Morris rides
PIVOTAL TRIGGER (J Butler) formerly with J & T Gosden, Neil Callan rides
5.30
ALMUDENA (M Prescott) continues to progress, trainer 25% with horses 10f+, Luke Morris rides
COCO ROYALE (W Haggas) ridden too aggressively on last start, forgive run, Tom Marquand rides
TENERIFE SUNSHINE (C Johnston) long traveller 245-miles, P J McDonald rides
The way the track is prepared at Kempton can play a massive part in whether it suits front-runners or horses coming from behind. Most of the time, the going is officially rated ‘standard’ but I know, from having ridden in America, that all artificial surfaces are dependent on weather conditions. An inside draw is a big advantage on the round course, as you don’t want to be running wide, and there’s a tendency for jockeys to get going a long from home. My preference would be to use patient tactics
– Jason Weaver