Kempton Racing Tips for Today
The Racing Horse offers their Kempton AW Racecourse Template for Friday 20 September 2024.
There is a 9-race card containing 6 Handicap Races and 3 Novice Stakes Races.
The Polytrack surface is expected to ride standard to slow.
Winning Favourites (5 Years)
Non-handicap Handicap
2yo 113-293 39% -49.12 40-110 36% +0.19
3yo 147-295 50% -8.39 154-476 32% -42.47
4yo+ 46-107 43% -4.71 250-790 32% -74.57
TOTAL 306-695 44% -62.22 444-1376 32% -116.85
Winning Favourites (2024)
Non-handicap Handicap
2yo 9-29 31% -2.26 2-7 29% -4.02
3yo 32-63 51% +0.14 30-74 41% +7.71
4yo+ 5-13 38% -0.82 51-140 36% -0.11
TOTAL 46-105 44% -2.94 83-221 38% +3.58
TOP 5 TRAINERS at KEMPTON past 5 years +/- E
Andrew Balding (15%) 88-540 16% -8.68 +1% 1
Charlie Appleby (29%) 71-211 34% -37.04 +5% 0
Roger Varian (20%) 63-267 24% -34.32 +4% 0
Richard Hannon (11%) 51-467 11% -115.25 +0% 2
J & T Gosden (21%) 48-252 19% -70.35 -2% 3
TOP 5 TRAINERS at KEMPTON 2024 +/- E
Andrew Balding (15%) 20-109 18% -8.19 +3% 1
Richard Hughes (14%) 12-43 28% +10.69 +15% 1
Charlie Appleby (29%) 11-26 42% -0.80 +13% 0
William Haggas (22%) 10-41 24% -0.10 +2% 1
E J-Houghton (12%) 8-44 18% -11.55 +6% 0
TOP 5 JOCKEYS at KEMPTON past 5 years +/- R
Oisin Murphy (19%) 93-480 19% -86.04 +0% 0
David Probert (12%) 93-768 12% -45.28 +0% 7
Daniel Muscutt (13%) 82-610 13% -114.54 +0% 7
Hollie Doyle (15%) 77-560 14% -128.09 -1% 0
William Buick (23%) 76-325 23% -76.37 +0% 0
TOP 5 JOCKEYS at KEMPTON 2024 +/- R
Tom Marquand (15%) 23-94 24% +31.90 +9% 0
Oisin Murphy (19%) 22-116 19% -42.82 +0% 0
Rossa Ryan (16%) 17-102 17% -33.33 -1% 0
Billy Loughnane (14%) 15-89 17% +31.91 +3% 0
Daniel Muscutt (13%) 13-95 14% -14.41 +1% 7
TOP 5 OWNERS at Kempton past 5 years +/- E
Godolphin (25%) 100-360 28% -79.71 +3% 1
King Power (13%) 25-131 19% -28.31 +6% 0
Juddmonte (23%) 20-68 29% -1.44 +6% 1
Shadwell Est (23%) 20-76 26% +2.88 +3% 0
Opulence Thoro (18%) 16-58 28% +3.85 +10% 0
Upcoming Fixtures:
Wednesday 25 September 2024
Wednesday 2 October 2024
Wednesday 9 October 2024
Forthcoming Racecourse Templates at The Racing Horse:
Newbury (Saturday 21 September 2024)
CONFIGURATION: Kempton is a right-handed, Polytrack, flat, oval-shaped course with two loops. The inner circuit, used for races over five and ten furlongs is sharp and has a finishing straight of just under two furlongs, favouring the speedy, handy type, markedly so over the minimum trip.
The turn on the outer course is more sweeping and the straight is approximately three furlongs long, making for a fairer test. Over both five and six furlongs, there is a relatively short run to the first bend.
FAVOURITES: Kempton Racecourse Template provides a huge sample giving the figures real weight and substance! Winning favourites at the course over the past 5-years show 750-2071 for 36.12% and a level stake loss of -179.07, so +3% of the national average.
Non-handicap winning favourites score at 44% as opposed to handicap favourites who score at 32% for a significant 12% differential.
- Best category are 3yo favs in non-handicaps 147-295 for 50% (-8.39)
- Worst category are 4yo favs in handicaps 250-790 for 32% (-74.57)
- Best versus the worst category shows a significant differential of 18%.
- Winning 3yo favourites in non-handicap score at a big 50% and a micro-system with just a modicum of filtration. The strike rate of 50% over the past 5 years is being replicated again this current year, so a constant and something to work from!
- First and second in the market at Kempton win at 52.95%.
TRAINERS: Top trainer at the course is Andrew Balding (15%) and he has just the one runner in UPSCALE 6.45 a last time out course and distance winner and to be ridden by David Probert.
J &T Gosden (21%) runs 3 at the course including FIFTH COLUMN 4.00, IZIPIZI 5.10 & D FLAWLESS 6.45.
JOCKEYS: There are 3 jockeys with 7 rides each for tomorrow's meeting and we imagine a winner or two coming from the 21 rides. Hector Crouch (14%) has 7 ride with 3 of those beaten favourite last time out, his rides include CONSOLIDATION (bf) 4.00, STORM FREE 4.35, DARK LYRIC 5.10, CLOUD FREE 6.15, HAPPY HADEDA 6.45, LIOSA (bf) 7.15 & JUST AN HOUR (bf) 7.45.
David Probert (12%) rides include TELEPATHIC 4.00, LADY DIESEL 4.25, NATIVE SOUVENIR 5.10, TOP OF THE CLASS 5.40, UPSCALE 6.45, ROYAL DREAM 7.45 & DROUTHY NEEBOR 8.15.
Danny Muscutt (13%) rides include ENACTING 4.00, HERKEIOS 4.35, CHARMAINE 5.10, ARIKA 6.15, HAVANA SKY 7.15, PURE OF HEART 7.45 & PAYMENT PLAN 8.15.
OWNERS: Godolphin (25%) score 88-320 for 28% in the UK this year so a big +3% above their national average. They have a single runner for this meeting and one trained by J & T Gosden in FIFTH COLUMN 4.00 to be ridden by Benoit De La Sayette. Interesting the Gosdens only score 18% for Godolphin and a figure that looks far too low. Obviously they bring something to the table, but TRH is not sure what exactly? Why not give those horses to Saeed bin Suroor, this year he has only ran 55 horses yet scored at 25%. Would love to know the answer to this one?
Juddmonte (23%) also have a single entry with UPSCALE 6.45 a last time out winner over course and distance for top trainer at the course Andrew Balding and David Probert rides
RED FLAG: William Buick (23%) has had a few days off and only has one ride tomorrow for Charlie Appleby and Godolphin, but he has 5 strong rides in total at Newbury and is almost certain to ride at least one winner.
His rides include ANNA SWAN (M Stoute) 2.25, MANDANA (Newland & Insole) 2.55, NOSTRUM (M Stoute) 4.05, BLESSED HONOUR (C Appleby) 4.40 & MORE THUNDER (M Stoute) 5.15. One imagines that each of those rides has place chances at least and a win double beckons!
Worth noting his combination with Michael Stoute shows 13-35 for a massive 37% (+21.18) and 3 of his rides are for this trainer. TRH is playing stop at a winner and we do not expect to lose!
Pertinence and Pertaining
4.00 (Winning favourites 39%)
CONSOLIDATION (R Beckett) beaten favourite last time out, drops from Class 2 to Class 4, trainer 20% with 2yos this year, Hector Crouch rides and 35% on favourites
CLASSIC CAUSE (C Hills) drops from Class 2 to Class 4, trainer +£13.63 when one runner at a meeting but just 3-54 with 2yos this year, Cieren Fallon rides
HUNKY DORY (E Walker) drops from Class 2 to Class 4, trainer 21% with 2yos this year. Callum Hutchinson rides
4.35 (Winning favourites 39%)
SANDS OF MARRA (O Sangster) drops from Group 3 to Class 2, trainer 14 2yo winners this year, Nicola Currie rides
AVIATION TIME (R Hughes) C&D winner, OR 89, George Rookes rides
UNFORTUNATE HEIR (C Cox) trainer 14-76 for 18% (+£21.71) with 2yo this year, market check a must. Richard Kingscote rides
5.10 (Winning favourites 50%)
IZIPIZI (J & T Gosden) drops from Class 2 to Class 4, 99-day break, trainer has won the last 2 runnings. Benoit Sayette rides
NATIVE SOUVENIR (H Palmer) won on debut showing good attitude, likely to improve, David Probert rides
5.45
HAVANA TOUCH (J Butler) beaten favourite last time out, Luke Morris rides
TOP OF THE CLASS (M Loughnane) double C&D winner and form figures for track are 4211, David Probert rides
KING OF FURY (T Kent) best effort yet when runner-up at Yarmouth last month, Adam Farragher rides
6.15
CALANTHE (A Watson) few miles on the clock, got off the mark at Lingfield last week. Luke Morris rides
GREEN POWER (J Gallagher) C&D winner, 3 wins from 7 here, weighted to win 69 > 65, trainer +£104.78 when one runner at the track. William Carson rides
DEMBE (S Pearce) course winner and effective on this surface, dropped to a handy mark. Paddy Bradley rides
6.45 (Winning favourites 32%)
COGNISANCE (W Haggas) willing attitude scoring over C&D last month, more to come, unbeaten in 2 seeking hat-trick, trainer 22% with handicap debutants. Cieren Fallon rides
D FLAWLESS (J &T Gosden) drops from Class 2 to Class 4, Jamie Spencer rides
INHERIT (M Stoute) trainer in great form 4-11 for 36%, debut on this surface. Richard Kingscote rides
7.15
LIOSA (W Kittow) beaten favourite last time out, on a good mark. Hector Crouch rides and 35% on favourites
LILKIAN (D Holland) weighted to win 69 > 62, Liam Wright rides
ALAFDHAL (P McEntee) weighted to win 72 > 62, Josephine Gordon rides
7.45
JUST AN HOUR (B Millman) beaten favourite last time out, Hector Crouch rides
THE GLEN ROVERS (L Wadham) beaten favourite last time out, Jonny Peate rides
ORBITAL (M Prescott) good 2nd at Lingfield (12f) 6 days ago, drop back in trip holding no fears, trainer 25% with horses racing 10f+, Luke Morris rides
8.15
ANGEL ON HIGH (A Wintle) beaten favourite last time out, Tyler Heard rides
FRAVANCO (M Madgwick) too free last time out, of strong interest back down in trip and returned to AW, weighted to win 60 > 54, trainer won this race in 2022. William Carson rides
PRIVATE BRYAN (E De Giles) course winner, forget last run, this scenario more suitable, George Rooke rides
The way the track is prepared at Kempton can play a massive part in whether it suits front-runners or horses coming from behind. Most of the time, the going is officially rated ‘standard’ but I know, from having ridden in America, that all artificial surfaces are dependent on weather conditions. An inside draw is a big advantage on the round course, as you don’t want to be running wide, and there’s a tendency for jockeys to get going a long from home. My preference would be to use patient tactics
– Jason Weaver
Paul Moon – The Racing Horse