Taunton Racing Tips for Today
The Racing Horse offers their Taunton Racecourse Template for Thursday 29 February 2024.
There is a 7-race card and the going is expected to be soft to heavy.
Winning Favourites (5 Years) Non-handicap Handicap Hurdle 62-107 58% +6.63 54-149 36% +5.33 Chase 6-10 60% +1.49 39-96 41% +22.07 NHF 5-18 28% -5.38 0-0 TOTAL 73-135 54% +2.75 93-245 38% +27.40 TOP 5 TRAINERS at TAUNTON for past 5 years +/- E Paul Nicholls (24%) 53-191 28% -23.58 +4% 3 Hobbs & White (14%) 26-148 18% -33.81 +4% 4 Neil Mulholland (13%) 13-114 11% -7.19 -2% 3 Jeremy Scott (11%) 12-80 15% -25.54 +4% 1 Olly Murphy (17%) 11-56 20% -20.10 +3% 0 HOT TRAINERS 30/01/2024 to 28/02/2024 +/- E Paul Nicholls (24%) 22-72 31% -1.03 +7% 3 Jonjo O'Neill (15%) 11-52 21% -2.44 +6% 1 TOP 5 JOCKEYS at TAUNTON for past 5 years +/- R Harry Cobden (23%) 41-154 27% -17.68 +4% 3 Lorcan Williams (13%) 11-40 28% +1.34 +15% 1 Rex Dingle (14%) 10-70 14% -22.62 +0% 6 Ben Jones (14%) 10-72 14% -35.25 +0% 0 David Noonan (6%) 9-114 8% -12.47 +2% 0 HOT JOCKEYS 30/01/2024 to 28/02/2024 +/- R Harry Cobden (23%) 23-83 28% +1.97 +5% 3 Freddie Gingell (17%) 5-20 25% -1.00 +8% 2 Joe A Anderson (12%) 4-16 25% +36.50 +13% 2 Harry Skelton (21%) 7-34 21% +3.50 +0% 2 Rex Dingle (14%) 6-32 19% +8.00 +5% 6 TOP 5 OWNERS at TAUNTON past 5 years +/- E John P McManus (17%) 8-48 17% +1.87 +0% 0 Michael Geoghegan (33%) 5-10 50% +3.83 +20% 0 Bradley Partner (10%) 5-19 26% +212.37 +16% 1 J Perriss (17%) 4-6 67% +6.80 +50% 0 Midgley & Hodges (24%) 3-3 100% +6.00 +76% 0 FIXTURES Monday 11 March 2024
CONFIGURATION: Right handed, sharp. Fences have been traditionally regarded as small and easy, yet the casualty rate on the chase course is high. The low quality of horses which contest the vast majority of races is undoubtedly a factor, whilst the sharp nature of the course is another, the third last is a particularly tricky obstacle.
FAVOURITES: Taunton is an excellent track for winning favourites albeit taken from a small sample. Over the past 5 years they show 166-380 for a big 43.68% and a level stake profit of +30.15 to SP. Winning favourites in non-handicaps show a strike rate of 54% whilst handicap winning favourites strike at 38%. If the national average of winning favourites stands at around 33% this means Taunton score around 11% above that, a figure that should be factored into our betting processes!
By the way, of the 6 categories of races, only beaten favourites in NHF Races show a loss to SP.
TRAINERS: Paul Nicholls (24%) is easily top trainer at Taunton and scoring at 28%. Unless we have a clear edge we rarely back against one of his runners at this course. Tomorrow he has 3 runners and interestingly 2 in the last NHF Race, they include JACKPOT D'ATHOU 3.15 and SORCELEUR & BERLIATH 5.35. Sorceleur drops from a Cheltenham Listed race to this Class 5 so the stable will be disappointed if this one does not win.
Philip Hobbs & Johnson White (14%) have 4 runners and double-up in 2 races with LIVIN ON LUCO & MISS POPALONG 3.15 and KEABLE & TINY TETLEY 4.25. They look likely to score. Neil Mulholland (13%) has 3 runners including COME ON PADDY MAC 2.05, DOUBLE POWERFUL 2.40 & BARLEY GIN 3.15.
JOCKEYS: Harry Cobden (24%) has become the best NH jockey in the UK and he rides 27% at this course, he has 3 rides including JACKPOT D'ATHOU 3.15, JUNIPER 5.00 & SORCELEUR 5.35.
Rex Dingle (14%) will be busy and has 6 rides including SARCEN 2.05, AMALFI BAY 2.40, CLOUDY FLAMINGO 3.50, LITTLE ELSE 4.25, LILITH 5.00 & DANCE AND GLANCE 5.35.
OWNERS: From our leader board only Bradley Partnership (10%) has a runner in MY LAST OSCAR 4.25 trained by Nicky Martin and to be ridden by James Bowen. This 9yo is a course and distance winner, will be well ridden and will love the ground conditions.
RED FLAG: Christian Williams (9%) remains in the doldrums and something has happened to his set-up that we are not aware of.
Since August 2023 he shows just 4-118 for just 3%. His best season was 2020/21 where he recorded 34-256 for 13% (-6.68) with some big race wins! Since then he has stalled with 2022/23 scoring 15-203 for 7% (-32.13) and now this season 11-166 for 7% (-78.47).
His figures at Taunton over the past 5-years show 2-47 for 4% (-19.00). He has 2 runners tomorrow including TIK TOK 2.40 & UNO MAS 4.25. Interesting that Harry Skelton has his first ride for him on board Tik Tok 2.40.
Pertinence and Pertaining
2.05 (Winning favs: 36%)
IMPERIAL MEASURE (E Williams) beaten favourite last time out, 1-2 on heavy ground. Isabel Williams rides.
ACTIVIST (D Pipe) winner in the last 3 days, one to beat if recovered. Jack Tudor rides.
WHYNOTNOWROY (K Burke) 0-7 but encouraging run over course and distance last time, Stan Sheppard rides.
2.40 (Winning favs: 36%)
JOHANNES (D Pipe) winner in France, 0-3 in UK, drops from Class 3 to Class 5, Jack Tudor rides.
AMALFI BAY (A Honeyball) fair Flat winner, got back on track following a breathing op when 2nd in novice Exeter hurdle in October. Starts life in handicaps on a potentially good mark based on Flat exploits. Rex Dingle rides.
DANCE HAVANA (G Harris) formerly with A Haynes. Showed some aptitude for hurdling when placed in a pair of juveniles last summer, Conor Ring (3) rides.
3.15 (Winning favs: 58%)
JACKPOT D'ATHOU (P Nicholls) beaten favourite last time out, trainer 28% at the track. Harry Cobden rides.
LIVIN ON LUCO (Hobbs & White) last time out winner on soft ground and possesses best form, Micheal Nolan rides.
MISTRAL MILLY (E Lavelle) 150/1 when 4th last time, now drops from Class 2 to Class 4, Joe Anderson rides.
3.50 (Winning favs: 41%)
ART DECCO (R Walford) last time out winner with first time cheek pieces, Harry Kimber (3) rides.
STAR FLYER (W Greatrex) last time out winner on good to soft, reacting well to first-time headgear, now 9lbs higher. James Bowen rides.
4.25 (Winning favs: 36%)
SPITALFIELD (J O'Neill) beaten favourite last time out, £65,000 purchase now 0-9. Richie McLernon rides.
RIVERS CORNER (S Hosie) last time out winner with a ton in hand, 10lbs rise, Harry Atkins (7) keeps the ride.
MY LAST OSCAR (N Martin) C&D winner, gained 3rd handicap success when forging clear at Hexham but now 8lbs higher. James Bowen rides.
5.00
LILITH (A Honeyball) trainer has 2 in the race, last time out winner, tough 9yo mare. Rex Dingle rides.
JUNIPER (A Honeyball) pulled up on first start for trainer but now Harry Cobden rides.
5.35 (Winning favs: 28%)
SORCELEUR (P Nicholls) ran in Cheltenham Listed Race last time out when 3rd at 13/2 not beaten far, now Class 5. Harry Cobden rides.
BERLIATH (P Nicholls) £65,000 3yo, Clovis Du Berlais gelding. Half-brother to 4 winners, Lorcan Williams rides.
WHYNOTNOWBART (K Burke) Yard saddled 40/1 winner first time up in good bumper at Kempton on Saturday. Stan Sheppard rides.
They’ve recently installed a reservoir at Taunton and you often get better winter ground there than in other parts of Britain. It’s a great course to ride and any number of good horses have made their debut there. Some of them won and plenty got beaten. It can be a trappy track for a jockey, as they tend to start racing from a long way out, and you run downhill to the third-last over fences and the second-last over hurdles. Novices can get caught out by those obstacles.
– Mick Fitzgerald
Paul Moon – The Racing Horse