The Pep Talk – Newmarket, The Arc & Champions Day
Rockfel Stakes
Formal heads the market here in a bid to give Sir Michael Stoute yet another class horse, to sign off his incredible career. I actually wonder if that aspect is factored into the price a little bit here. She has been impressive in her wins to date, but they were both only novice races and I’m not convinced the form is anything to shout about.
I think Tabiti is a bit of value here at 6/1. She was impressive on debut on the July course when well-backed on debut over this trip, but then dropped back to 6f and was strong at the finish to win the Group 3 Dick Poole at Salisbury. She got away with the trip on that occasion and was asked plenty early enough for her effort from Rossa Ryan. That looked the shortest distance she’d want and will definitely benefit from going back up to 7f. The Rockfel was identified as the next target by her trainer Ralph Beckett and she’s looked classy so far. I’d be surprised if she wasn’t shorter than 6/1 on the day.
Recommended Bet
Back Tabiti @ 6/1
Cheveley Park Stakes
Babouche is the one that has been well-supported for this following her beating of Whistlejacket in the Phoenix Stakes. She remains unbeaten and is clearly very good, as is that piece of form.
But I wonder if Whistlejacket was quite at his best that day. Ger Lyons also hasn’t had a winner in England since the 2019 Ebor, but he’s certainly had enough good chances since then.
I think Fairy Godmother is good value here. How she won the Albany at Royal Ascot I don’t know. She conceded first run to all her rivals and had to switch right around the entire field. Absolutely flying home, she collared Simmering (who has since won a Group 3 and a Group 2), Heavens Gate who won a valuable race at Naas and Mountain Breeze who has placed twice at Group level since. There’s no other way to look at it other than she is a seriously talented filly to beat those fillies in the manner that she did. Aidan O’Brien has said this is her target and I think she’ll be challenging Babouche for favouritism on the day. bet365 are currently offering 5/1, which seems extremely generous (hopefully they don’t know something I don’t).
Recommended Bet
Back Fairy Godmother @ 5/1
Sun Chariot
There is a chance that this race could cut up a little, with Opera Singer unlikely to run, I’d be surprised if See The Fire dropped in trip from last time and Inspiral not looking like the same horse as the past couple of seasons.
You could make quite a strong case that Tamfana could, and should, have won the 1000 Guineas over this course and distance at the start of the season. She found loads of trouble at a crucial stage and a bit like Fairy Godmother, conceded first run to all her rivals and had to switch dramatically around the field. She simply had too much to do and despite flying home, couldn’t quite reel in the leaders. She’s only had one try at a mile since that day and that resulted in a comfortable win in a Group 3 at Sandown.
So, on that evidence, you could argue that she could be (unproven yet) the best of her generation at the trip. Porta Fortuna has advertised the form very well throughout the season and I do like Tamfana here. She does have the option of the Prix de l’Opera over further the day after, but I think the Sun Chariot is the right option.
Recommended Bet
Back Tamfana @ 7/1 – Now backed into 7/2.
Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe
Look De Vega has had three career starts and is clear favourite for the Arc. That sentence just doesn’t sound right to me, and I couldn’t have him on my mind at 7/2 for this race.
I think it’s wide open this year, which I suppose is why a horse with his profile is favourite. With that in mind, I think there is value to be had and I’m taking a stab at one at a huge price.
André Fabre is the winning-most trainer in the Arc, with 8 wins, so you could say he knows the time of day when it comes to winning this prestigious race, which would be the understatement of the century. All season there has been one target and one target only for Mqse De Sevigne, the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe. She’s just so happened to have won 3 Group 1s along the way. She won the d'Ispahan before the Rothschild as well as the Jean Romanet. I’m wondering if she’s the price she is because she never wins by far. But that isn’t the part to focus on. In her last 7 starts, she’s won 6 of them with 5 being Group 1s. She just finds a way to win, which is the important thing and to do it that many times isn’t a fluke.
To have a horse coming into the Arc with that record be 33/1, seems an absolutely ridiculous price to me. She hasn’t ever raced over a mile and a half, so that is obviously a big question mark. But her Sire, Siyouni, has had a recent Arc winner in Sottsass and there is loads of stamina on the Dam’s side of her pedigree. The fact Fabre is aiming her here has to count for something, and the price is just a huge bonus.
Recommended Bet
Back Mqse De Sevigne @ 33/1
Fillies Mile
Like a lot of the two-year-old races, the Irish have a strong hand. But Desert Flower got the better of a couple of Irish fillies in January and Ecstatic in the May Hill, so can do so again in the Fillies Mile.
I love how straightforward Desert Flower is. She doesn’t race keenly and she’s also a tad lazy at times, but that certainly doesn’t do her any harm. When she’s asked for an effort, she continually winds up and has a really sustained change of gear. She also hits the line strongly and in doing so at Doncaster, she won pretty comfortably in the end. Because she does so many things right, that’s why she’ll be hard to beat, especially as a juvenile when her rivals aren’t as mature.
Recommended Bet
Back Desert Flower @ 5/1 – Now 4/1
Fillies and Mares Stakes
Juddmonte own the two market leaders here and I’d be surprised if they both ran. Bluestocking has shown she can cut it with the males at Group 1 level already this season, so I’d be surprised if she didn’t go to the Arc or the Champion Stakes (she could also have the Prix de l’Opera as an option too).
Whereas I fully expect Kalpana to run in this race, given that she doesn’t have an entry in the Arc, and she looks way more suited to a mile and a half as opposed to a mile and a quarter.
She has continued to develop and mature all season, starting off in a Wolverhampton novice race in January and latterly beating the males twice in succession in pattern races. She emphatically won both of those contests, putting clear daylight between herself and her rivals. At Kempton last time, she was punted off the boards from 9/4 into even money favourite, and there was never a moments worry. She travelled well and booted clear in the home straight from an older horse in Lion’s Pride who is a dual course winner.
Kalpana is improving and thriving, seemingly handles any ground and stays a mile and a half strongly. She is pretty much point and shoot – she’ll take plenty of beating in this. Her nearest market rival could be Content, but given how keenly she races, I think she’ll struggle to get home on what will likely be soft ground at Ascot in October.
Recommended Bet
Back Kalpana @ 4/1
Alex Peperell
Editor’s note: We posted the recommended bets in the Platinum Members Area on 16th September and the prices quoted were generally available at that time.
We have also added the above runners to our tracker as a reminder.
