Cheltenham 2023 day 1 selections

Free Horse Racing Tips Analysis – Update

A few months back I shared some analysis of the free tips that are posted daily at the OLBG website.

Today I thought I’d update you on where we are at.

You can read the original piece in Issue 97, but to briefly recap. OLBG runs tipping competitions every month and pay cash prizes to the winners.

I decided to collect all the selections from the top 5 horse racing tipsters as of September 14th and  see how they fared.

When I started I only had the Betfair results data for win bets, I now have the Betfair place prices also for races from 10th November.

The chart below shows the performance of all five tipsters but only betting their win bets at Betfair SP.

As a group they have not done well! The total after four months is -265 points from 1698 bets, a minus 15% ROI.

I say as a group because surprisingly one of the tipsters has made a profit of 26.94 points backing their win bets only after commission at Betfair SP.

There were 139 win bets from Snuggleupwithagoodbo, so a 19 % ROI at Betfair SP, which is good going.

The place data I’ve only had since November 10th, so just over two months data on the each-way bets.

The next chart shows just the bets since November 10th up to January 17th.

The red line is betting all the selections from the five tipsters win only.

The blue line is betting half a point win and half a point place if the bet is advised each-way.

I thought that betting win only would be more profitable (smaller loss) over the long term, but that’s not how it’s played out so far. I guess that’s because the Betfair place only markets are fairer than the bookies each-way terms on most bets.

Over the shorter period tipster Snuggleupwithagoodbo made a +9.42 point profit betting all bets win only and +11.21 betting 0.5 point win and place when advised each-way and 1 point win when advised as a win bet. This was from 66 bets, so still nearly 17% ROI on the win and place bets.

Unfortunately the chart for that period of 66 bets looks like the Loch Ness Monster with all the profit coming from a recent winner at 14.34 BSP.

The other four tipsters again managed a substantial loss for both win and each-way.

I will keep an eye on Snuggleupwithagoodbo and report back in a few months.

Darren Power