Issue 100!
Yes, we really have just completed our 100th Issue! We can’t believe it.
Numerous research articles, Q and A’s, dozens of systems and services run through the ringer, stories and betting coups, betting and staking strategies, you name it we’ve probably touched on it in an article somewhere thanks to our regular authors both past and present.
We have highlighted just a handful that we feel may offer a little guidance as you travel on your betting journey.
Mindset
John Burke covered The Right Mindset as Part Four of his “Improve Your Punting” series.
The Psychology of betting tends to be underestimated by most punters which is a shame as it’s the difference between success and failure. From my long years of punting I estimate that successful betting is 70% psychological and 30% the mechanics of the bet.
If you want to win long term at this game, then you must have the correct mindset. The human brain, as evolved over hundreds of thousands of years, isn’t hard wired for successful betting. The brain has developed based on the primary function of one thing – survival.
To succeed at betting, you need to go against those basic automatic human instincts. You must think differently, to be able to adopt new ideas but most importantly you must sometimes be prepared to defy logic.
This month’s article looks at mindset and how you can develop the right mindset for successful horse race betting.
You can read the rest of the article here.
Have you ever wondered how to compile your own Tissue Odds?
If so take a look at Issue 90 and Issue 91 where we ran a two part series courtesy of Rory Delargy of Racing Consultants
In Running – Is there a potential for profits with betting In Running?
Dobbing is a term I came across a few years back and have written about before. The word ‘DOB’ in terms of betting ‘in running’ means ‘double or bust.’
Essentially if the trade is successful, we double our original stake, if the trade is unsuccessful, we ‘bust’ or lose our stake.
For people who have not read about dobbing before I will give you a worked example:Let us imagine you back a horse pre race at 10.00 for £10; in order to create a potential DOB, you try and lay at half the odds for double the stake – so you set a lay at 5.00 for £20.
If the horse hits 5.00 or lower in running, your lay bet will be matched and regardless of the result you will win £10 (less commission).
Have you ever dobbed? Want to find out more about dobbing? Read David Renham’s article here.
The Placepot
For our Gold members David Renham cast his mathematical and statistical prowess over the Tote Placepot for us.
Some Background and Pointers to the Placepot
Just before we delve into how we can go about potentially winning the Tote Placepot we have a quick update as not many months ago there was some exciting news as new owners took over the running.
During October 2019 a consortium of racing-backed investors behind the “Together for the Tote” project completed its acquisition of the Tote from Betfred. The UKtotegroup appear to have some lofty plans to revitalise a brand with a long history and association with horse racing but to be blunt had seen better days in recent times.
The website reads “Our plans for the Tote will ensure it remains true to its founding values: a win-win partnership that brings excitement to fans and vital funding for the industry.
Using best-in-class technology, digital innovation and customer engagement, we will develop the UK Tote into a modern British success story: a world-leading pools platform, reaching new audiences with innovative products.”
If they are able to deliver on those plans it has to be good news for punters at all levels and one of the key products is the Tote placepot, but what exactly is it?
Read Dave’s article here. Not a Gold member? You can upgrade here.
Horseracebase
Where would be without the wonder that is horseracebase.com
Horseracebase offers us the opportunity to run our ideas through their continuously updating database and shows us whether we may just be on the right track for a winning system or idea, but using it and all of it’s facilities is a learning curve.
John gave us an outline of how he uses horseracebase in Issue 68.
It’s no exaggeration when I say I love Horseracebace.com. It’s my go to site for all the systems that I create for my own betting and the systems that I create for this magazine.
I first came across the site in 2013 and apart from the Racing Post for its library of race videos I couldn’t do without it. It’s an indispensable tool that I use every day to help me become a more profitable punter.
It’s always been my intention to write a review on this fantastic resource. So, I was delighted when the guys at On Course Profits asked me to do one.
However, to do it justice in just one article has proved impossible. Thus, I decided the better way to give you a feel of how the site works was to do it via a series of tutorials.
Bear in mind, it’s been written with the ‘newbie’ in mind but hopefully more experienced users may find it useful also.
The Original Draw Bias
Dave Renham’s original draw bias article was published in Issue 74
In the article he looked to try “find ways to profit from the draw. Is it still possible? I am going to look at three options. So, let’s see ……” and our Gold members got to find the answer.
Testing Your Racing Knowledge – Ten Questions
Do you think Dave could have exhausted all of the possible topics he could research for us. Think again.
In Issue 80 Dave reflected on this question and more besides:
The other day I was sitting at my computer screen trying to calculate how many horse racing articles I have written over the past 20 years. It is obviously difficult to be precise, but I would estimate somewhere between 700 and 800. Indeed, I have over 600 saved on my computer but I am missing about six years’ worth from 2000 to the beginning of 2006.
Hence, as one can imagine, there are times when I have felt as if I have exhausted every single possible topic … at least to some extent. However, the beauty of racing research and racing stats, is that many stats change over time and thus there are always area/topics to revisit.
For example, draw stats have changed at some courses over the years due to moving of running rails, more even watering of the track etc. Also, profitable ideas from 10 years ago are unlikely to be profitable now, not necessarily because the strike rate has dropped, but due to the betting market catching on and prices contracting as a result.
Therefore, I know there will be plenty of options for different articles in the months and years to come. Having said that, it is nice to change it up sometimes, so for this article I am going to be doing something slightly different. I am going to give readers a ‘test’.
Can you pass Dave’s test? Find out here.
What do you know about Claimers?
Do you avoid claiming races? Are they really as tricky as you think to profit from?
Well, read this article we published and see what you think.
Do you want to get ahead of the game for the Flat Turf Season?
There will be a whole new bunch of two year olds hitting the turf this year and we will not have a blind bit of form to go on, so, how can we talk these races?
Many trainers are creatures of habit. What I mean by that is they tend to train their horses in a very similar way year in year out.
This is especially true if they have been successful in the past.
It takes a brave trainer to change their methods / approach if they have previously done well.
2yos need careful handling as they are very inexperienced, and hence trainers are even more likely to replicate previous training patterns, be it how they train them and / or how they campaign them. Therefore, past 2yo trainer data is one potential guide to future performance.
Of course, we cannot be 100% sure that past patterns will continue, but ultimately along with 2yo sire stats, 2yo trainer stats are the best we have to work with.
Which trainers have historically been able to deliver their two year olds on point? Find out here.
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