End of Season Flat Trainers

September and October are traditionally difficult months for punters. This is quite simply because of the transition between the end of the flat season and the beginning of the jumps season. So which End of Season Flat Trainers can deliver profits?

As the flat season winds down, the like of the Guineas meeting, the Derby, Royal Ascot and Glorious Goodwood have all been and gone and, with the exception of the St Leger meeting and the Cesarewitch and Cambridgeshire handicaps, there is not much to get excited about. At the same time, we see the jumps action kick in with relatively low-grade stuff and it is difficult to back anything with any real confidence.

However, one way to keep the ball rolling is to focus on those flat trainers who do well in the final two months of the season and that is the topic of this month’s article.

Identifying which trainers do well at this time of the year, and with which type of runner, can turn a difficult punting period into a profitable one. So, let’s take a look at those trainers we need to watch out for on the flat in September and October.

John Gosden

John Gosden sends out a lot of runners at the back end of the flat season, typically around 130 during September and October and his overall stats since 2010 are shown below:

Those numbers are pretty impressive with close to 200 winners at a strike rate just over 20% and a profit at Betfair SP of over £200 for £1 staked on each runner. Every year he has made a profit at Betfair SP so we have plenty to work with here and the strike rate is consistently around 18 to 25%.

There are a number of ways we can explore this data and the first thing I want to do is to take a look at the age of the horses, especially given that there are plenty of 2yo handicap races (referred to as nurseries) towards the back end of the season. The breakdown of his results by age of the runners is given in the table below:

The first thing of note is that just over half of his 199 winners since 2010 have been aged 2yo. These runners have a 23% strike rate and a 50% win and place strike rate and have produced some fairly good profit over on the betting exchanges. The ROI at Betfair SP is very good at around 32%.

Focussing on the 2yo’s we see that the majority run in non-handicap races and these have a record of 84-379 (22% strike rate) for a profit of £117.82 at Betfair SP. The nursery runners are few and far between but still chip in with a record of 11-38 (29% strike rate) for a profit of £27.29 so these should not be ignored.

The second thing I want to look at is race distance and the results of his 2yo runners racing over a variety of distances is shown below:

Those running over sprint trips have a combined record of 11-49 (22% strike rate) but do not offer us much in the way of profit (£4.54) or ROI and I would be inclined to concentrate on those racing over 7f to 1m 1f as these runners are more profitable. We will concentrate on those runners racing over 7f to 1m 1f and see if there is any angle we can use to maximise the profits these runners generate.

Perhaps the most interesting statistic is the race going. The British weather is unpredictable, and we will see a range of going descriptions from heavy to good to firm in September and October. Interestingly, the Gosden runners are not profitable in these months under heavy or soft conditions.

Take a look at the table below:

Those running on heavy, soft and good to soft have a combined record of 41-197 which is an exceptional 20% strike rate but they combine for a total loss of £44.92 at Betfair SP. In contrast, those running on good and good to firm ground have a combined record of 51-207 and produce profits of £192.38 at Betfair SP. That is certainly something to bear in mind for this season.

The next thing of note is race class. John Gosden was champion trainer in 2017/18 and you would expect a high number of winners at the highest grades.

However, remember that we are focussing on the end of the season and most of the high class 2yo race will have been and gone. The breakdown in performance of his 2yo runners in September and October at different race classes is given in the table below:
The strike rate of those running in class 1 to 3 is very impressive (27-93; 28%) but you would only make a small profit backing these runners. In contrast, those running in class 4 and class 5 races have a record of 64-310 (21%) but these runners combine for a profit of £144.56 on the exchanges.

This tells me the class 1 to 3 runners are very well fancied and overbet, offering little in the way of value. The runners in the lower classes may not have the same strike rate but they are certainly better value.

There is not much more I want to do with the John Gosden 2yo’s so my advice is to stick to those racing over 7f to 1m 1f and focus on class 4 races and lower, paying particular attention to the ground conditions, with those racing on good ground or better being the preferred option.

Finally, on Mr Gosden it is worth noting that is 3yo runners are not profitable to follow in the final months of the flat turf season. We have already looked at the 2yo’s and picked out a few angles worth noting, but his older horses (4yo and older) are also fairly decent in September and October.

They have a combined record of 30-158 (19% strike rate) and have produced a decent profit of £70.49 at Betfair SP. Interestingly, these runners all won at class 1 to class 3 level. Combining these with the 2yo’s who perform best at class 4 and 5 level gives you total coverage over all the race classes and again is something else to consider.

System: Back John Gosden 2yr olds on Good or Good/Firm going in Class 4,5 or 6, running over 7f-1m1f during September and October.

William Haggas

Another trainer with plenty of runners at the back end of the season is William Haggas. His overall record since 2010 is not as impressive as John Gosden. 167 winners from 922 runners at a strike rate of 18% and a more or less break-even scenario on the exchanges does however, give us plenty to work with.

Like John Gosden, the first port of call for the Haggas end of season runners is the 2yo’s. Since 2010 he has been successful with 77 2yo’s in September and October from 455 runners. The strike rate is 17%, a bit below that seen across all his runners, but backing all 2yo’s in these months would have generated profit to the tune of £47.16 at Betfair SP.

The angle here is to avoid those running over sprint trips of 5f, 5 ½f and 6f. They have an overall record of 25-144, again respectable, but show a combined loss. Those racing over 6 ½f to 1m appears to be the way to go. They have an overall record of 50-294 (17% strike rate) but combine for a decent profit of £94.10 at Betfair SP. That is one potential angle for his 2yo’s.

However, a potentially more profitable one is to concentrate on his runners in maiden races. His runners in maiden races have a decent record of 53-283 (19% strike rate) and show a profit of £85.40. Similar results are observed to those we saw when we looked at race distance.

However, we can get a much better strike rate by eliminating maiden runners having their first start as these only have a strike rate of 9%. If we concentrate on those that have had a run, we are left with the following figures:

The overall profit is reduced but now we have a much more manageable strike rate and an exceptionally good ROI.

The profit is down compared to backing all maiden runners, including debutants, as amongst the 9% of first time winners were a couple that went in at big prices on the exchanges.

Seeing as betting is such a psychological past time, it makes sense to most punters to go with an angle with a 28% strike rate over one with a 9% strike rate.

So, the angle for William Haggas in September and October:

System: Back William Haggas 2yo runners in maiden races that have had at least one previous run in September and October.

So far we have two trainers and it is their 2yo’s that should be followed under certain conditions. I know a lot of people who like to steer clear of betting in 2yo races so it is time to take a look at those trainers who are worth following with their 3yo and older runners. The first on the list is Roger Varian.

Roger Varian

I have eliminated Roger Varian’s 2yo runners and gone with those aged 3yo and older. Their record in the months of September and October is shown in the table below:

Those figures alone are impressive with the strike rate coming in above 20%, the profit at Betfair SP coming in at over £132 for each £1 staked on each selection and the ROI is a shade under 40%. As always, we can dig deeper into those numbers and see if we can improve upon it or merely leave it alone as a simple set-and-go system.

There is a nice split between the handicappers and the non-handicappers with both sets of runners having a similar strike rate, profit and ROI. Therefore, both can be backed.

One possible filter is race distance as he has had only 3 winners from 29 runners in races over further than 1m 4f. Therefore, we will stick to all race distances up to and including 1 and 1 ½ miles.

I would also be inclined to stick with the 3yo and 4yo runners. He doesn’t run many aged 5yo and older and they do pick up the odd race, but the majority of winners and profits have been realised by sticking to the 3yo and 4yo’s. In fact, they have combined for 64 wins from 276 runners at a strike rate of 23% when running over distances up to and including 1m 4f.

I think it is safe to say we can leave it there. I have looked at raced age restrictions (e.g. 3yo only races, 3yo+ races etc), race type (handicap, maiden, non-handicap) and race class and it does not make a whole deal of difference either way. My advice then is to back Roger Varian 3yo and 4yo runners in September and October racing up to including 1m 4f.

System: Back Roger Varian's 3 and 4 year old runners over 5f-1m4f during September and October.

Ger Lyons

Another trainer I have plenty of respect for is Ger Lyons who appears to be getting better and better with each season. His runners over in Ireland are also worth noting towards the back end of the season. In the last 3 seasons he has sent out 35 winners in the months of September and October from 200 runners. That is a very respectable 17.5% strike rate and backing each of those runners would have returned a profit of £96.13 at Betfair SP. However, it is possible to improve upon those figures by taking a closer look at the results.

First of all, all 35 winners were racing over a trip up to and including 1m 4f. Second, all bar three of the 35 winners were aged either 2yo, 3yo or 4yo. Those simple filters mean we lose three of the winners but the strike rate is slightly up as are the profits and, more importantly, the ROI. I would also be inclined to avoid his runners at Leopardstown. For whatever reason, they have a poor 1-25 record.

In contrast he has had winners at most of the other Irish tracks. He does send a few over the water to the mainland at tracks such as Ascot, Newbury and the Rowley Mile at Newmarket but he has yet to taste success when he does.

Personally, I think that is only a matter of time.

So, sticking to the Ger Lyons runners aged 2yo to 4yo, racing up to and including 1m 4f at all tracks except Leopardstown, we end up with the flowing results:

These runners were 14-55 in 2017 and are worth keeping an eye on this time around. There is not much else to say about Ger Lyons although it is worth mentioning that his handicappers do run well (11-49) as do his runners in maiden races (13-54).

System: Back Ger Lyons runners aged between 2 and 4 yrs, running over 5f-1m4f during September and October but NOT at Leopardstown.

Martin Meade

Out final trainer is Martin Meade and his record in the last 3 years reads 11 winners from 63 runners (17.5% strike rate) for a profit of £161.97 at Betfair SP. That type of profit from few winners can mean only one thing – big priced winners.

One interesting thing to note is that all 11 winners were racing over 7f to 1m 1f from just 39 runners. That boosts the strike rate to 28% and increase the P/L to £185.97.

You won’t get many qualifiers (roughly 10 to 15) but we are only looking at September and October, so you won’t have to wait too long. If you want to boost potential profits even further, then I can tell you that 10 of the 11 winners were running in class 1 to class 4 events.

Those running in the basement classes are just 1-11. That leaves the following impressive results:

Just to recap, we are looking at the following:

System: Martin Meade runners over 7f to 9f racing in class 1 to class 4 races in September and October.

Hopefully there will be some qualifiers this season.

Ones to avoid?

As well as knowing when to bet, it is also an art knowing when not to bet. Just as we have focussed on those trainers that do especially well with certain types of flat turf runner at the end of the season, there are also trainers who appear to be on a perpetual cold list for this time of the year. So, let us take a look at those and see if we can save ourselves a few quid into the bargain:

Tim Easterby

Tim Easterby runs a ridiculous amount of horses at the end of the season. Since 2010 he has sent out 1471 runners. How many won? Just 105. That is a strike rate of 7%. In 2011 he sent out 8 winners from 200 runners. Each season he has posted a massive loss in the months of September and October. Obviously, horses should be backed (or not) on their individual merit, but Mr Easterby runners, on the whole, are worth avoiding.

David O’Meara

David O’Meara is a trainer I have a lot of time for, especially in what he does with cast-offs from other yards. However, September and October may not be the time to back his runners. He has sent out 1074 runners in these months since 2010 and only 98 have won.

That is a strike rate of around 9%.

They are slightly better figures than Tim Easterby can manage but the overall outcome is the same – big losses even on the exchanges.