Let’s Do A Little Myth-Busting

In this article, I will use one of my betting strategies to do a bit of myth-busting.

Yes, you can make a profit from short priced selections (an average of 1.26 odds)

Yes, you can make a profit from other-than-level stakes without the need for uncomfortable stake sizes.

Yes, you can make a profit without that all-encompassing search for value.

Yes, you can make a profit from a horse racing strategy which does not even touch the form book.

No, you won’t profit unless you keep a record of bets which you can analyse.

So let’s get started.

Some punters would never, in a million years, entertain backing horses at odds of 1.26 on average. But why not? …..if it makes, and is proven to make, money over 7+ years?

The key to money-making at these odds is the strike rate. In 7 years; my 2-horse race placers have an 82.2% strike rate. ‘Perfick ‘as Pop Larkin would say.

What is the key to keeping the strike rate high? In my case, the Place market. In an 8+ runner race, our selection need only finish in the top 3 for us to profit. We are not searching singularly for a win. We have some scope for our selection to not win, but still yield a profit.

So, how to make selections without studying the form book?

Another myth busted. I don’t have the time or the inclination to bury my head in the form book, so I make my selections using the Betting Forecast at www.racingpost.com.

I look for a top-heavy market, where 2 horses apparently dominate the betting forecast, and back the bookmaker’s favourite in the ‘to be placed’ market. There is a degree of trust in the Racing Post journo’s conclusions here.

Let’s take a look at the results for the 2-horse race placers using level stakes.

From January 2013, to March 2020, this strategy has made 99 points profit to level stakes.

Yes, it’s a profit, but hardly a profit to get excited about.

Would you have kicked this strategy to the curb (girlfriend?)

There is more to life than level stakes you know.

If you use a staking tool such as the staking machine, (www.thestakingmachine.com) you can look to see if you are maximising profits. And you can be creative. You can look to see if there is a profit for the layer, not just the backer.

You can look to see if your system profits better in a certain price band (in my case, at odds of between 1.1 and 1.5).

You can look over multiple staking plans to find the fit. When you find the fit, you have a reliable long-term profit maker.

Factors to note during analysis?

How smooth is the profit graph?

Do stakes remain manageable throughout? I.e. is there an uncomfortable escalation in stakes at some point throughout the journey? Loss retrieval staking plans can really boost the betting bank, but any looming run of bad results will sharply raise the size of stakes, kill your momentum and possibly the betting bank.

When you find the staking plan (which may be other than level stakes) which suits the selection strategy, then your job is done.

This is precisely what I did with the 2 horse race placers. Remember that, over 7 years, this strategy made 99 points profit to level stakes. That’s 10 +points a year. Really not worth it.

What if you could multiply returns by 10? Would that tickle your fancy?

Let me introduce you to the Pro Staking Plan.

Marrying the 2 horse race placers selection system with the Pro Staking Plan has profited every year since 2013 ( one bad year limping over the line as break even /slight profit).  Other staking plans also showed a profit but nowhere near the profits of the Pro Staking Plan considering my starting stake (67p).

My analysis also suggested we set an odds limit to selections. We back any 2 horse race placer selection in the Place market as long as the odds are between 1.1 and 1.5 decimal. You can back these selections at bookies such as Paddy Power who provide a place market. My preference is for the place market at www.betfair.com.

Results are based on a £2 target selected in the Pro Staking Plan settings. A starting stake of a whopping 67p!

2013 – Series Profit £2570

2014 – Series Profit £1725.73

2015 – Series Profit £1526.31

2016 – Series Profit £85.53   

2017 – Series Profit £746.90

2018 – Series Profit £3.07

2019 – Series Profit £861.02

The worst case scenario (2018) saw a break even position.

Had you carried the profits over into the following year, since 2013, the betting bank would be a handsome £10548 in profit. Not too shabby, from an initial 67p stake.  (Increase the target of course, and you increase the returns – and stakes!

If I set my target at £5, the return is £26,222. But the largest stake was £1400. Practical issues ensue. Can we get a bet on at such a stake in the Place market? Possible.)

Below is a comparison of level stakes v the Pro Staking Plan. £10 stakes for level stakes 67p starting stake for Pro Staking Plan.

For those of you interested, here’s a quick look at how the Pro Staking Plan works.

We select a target.

I set my target as £2.

This is the base figure to work from. Each consecutive bet will have £2 added to the target. So, our base figure will look like this:

• Bet 1 Base Target £2
• Bet 2 Base Target £4
• Bet 3 Base Target £6
• Bet 4 Base Target £8

And so on…

Now to selecting our stake.

Our stake is our target (£2, £4, £6 etc.) divided by 3.

The target will be changeable based on the result which will be either ‘Win’ or ‘Lose’

Let’s look at Bet 1

Our base target is £2. Our selection wins at odds of 1.28. We win 18p (don’t spend it all at once now – you might want to parlay this winning into toilet roll or property!).

So, what is our next base target? It is £2+£2, as I explained earlier. £4 is our next base target. But we have already won that life-changing 18p. So our base target needs to change to reflect this.

Follow this rule.

Take any profit from the new Base Target (£4).

Add any loss to the new Base Target.

Let’s look at Bet 2

Our base target is now £4 minus 18p won from bet 1. Our new Base Target therefore is £3.82.

Our next stake is £3.82 divided by 3 = £1.27

The odds for Bet 2 are 1.35 and the selection wins. We win 42p. Total profit so far is 60p. As we have already made 60p, what will Bet 3’s new target be? The base target is £6. We take away profit already made. New target for Bet 3 is £5.40.

The stake is £5.40 divided by 3 = £1.80

The original Pro Staking Plan sought to reset the stake to its original size after the profit equalled or exceeded the target amount.

My Pro Staking Plan does not include a reset option so is ideally suited to the 2 horse race placers or other very short odds selection systems. I have a rather crude excel spreadsheet I created of the Pro Staking plan. If you’d like a copy, let me know.

What has this case study on one of my horse racing strategies shown you?

• You don’t need to bury your head in the form book to find a profitable strategy. I have profitable laying strategies and the only consultation I make is with the betting forecast of the Racing Post. Race cards have a wealth of information for you to create a possible betting strategy.

• Don’t be scared of Ronnie Corbett-sized odds! It’s the strike rate that’s the key with short-priced selections, and a market such as the place market can ensure a higher strike rate than the win only market. Our purpose is to make money!

• Record results – in chronological order, to Betfair SP (to cater for any lay angle), and showing the result any horse finished (for a possible place/each-way angle).

• Use level stakes as your base, but please don’t use level stakes results as your final decision maker. There may be a staking plan out there which outperforms level stakes without added risk. Something like the Pro Staking Plan which you saw multiplied returns by 10 without the added risk.

If you have a betting idea, and you have kept results and want me to analyse your results, then send me an excel spreadsheet with the following data

Column 1 – date and bet

Column 2 – odds (decimal)

Column 3 – 1 if the bet won, 2 if the bet lost.

I can do quick analysis for you, and who knows, you might find the staking plan to maximise your returns.

Best of luck.

Clive Keeling

My email is whatreallywins@yahoo.co.uk

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