Flat Stallions & Trainer Micro Angles
Introduction
Inspired by a chapter in Nick Mordin's book ‘Winning Without Thinking' on pedigrees I thought I'd take a different look at ‘the Flat' (Turf) – well, different for me anyway.
Long term success in this game generally depends on thinking outside the box or in any case looking at races/horses in a contrarian way, different to the general mass of punters.
We need an edge when it comes to our methods, including looking at angles/stats/'ways in' that are as yet not in the mainstream.
We must be homing in on horses underestimated by other punters. This is something I need to do more of and as Mordin reflects ‘In horse racing almost everything is the exact opposite of what we expect it to be’.
Every angle has a shelf life but with any luck some of the following angles will keep ticking over for the next season or two.
What follows is a look at certain trainers who do well with the offspring of certain sires. I'll explain the logic as I go through each angle below.
I've used Horse Race Base for this research and have looked at the previous 10 calendar years.
Let’s crack on…
John Gosden – Stallion: Dubawi
Racing Post Sire comment: unbeaten 2yo, inc National Stakes; won Irish Guineas & Jacques le Marois at 3; exceptional sire
- Sex: Filly
- Going: Good to Firm
- Any odds
The first of a handful of angles that focus on fillies and there's plenty of logic for doing so, especially from a pedigree perspective.
A well-bred filly can be worth plenty as a broodmare, especially to any owner-breeders. (Checking the ownership of ‘qualifiers' as they appear could be another ‘edge').
Obviously they're worth more to potential breeders if they've won races and shown a winning attitude – it makes sense for trainers to get wins on the board with such types, asap. I doubt fillies within angles such as this are running for a handicap mark!
All thoroughbreds can be tricky but arguably fillies can be harder to handle more generally and getting the best out of them is a skill in itself. Some trainers will be better with the ladies than others!
Often they may lack ‘form' in the book, which is to our advantage, if we have other information at hand that it may take longer for the market to cotton onto.
Arguably angles such as this could be far more valuable to us than those that may focus on races packed with exposed handicappers, where information on what horses are well handicapped and suited to the race conditions is more widespread, and often already built into the odds.
John Gosden clearly knows what he's doing with Dubawi fillies and they seem best on Good to Firm ground – well certainly the ones he gets.
These stats actually cover the last 5 seasons and 2019 was his best year yet with them – as a trainer has more success with certain types of horses/ pedigrees etc. it makes sense that they may try and buy more for future seasons.
Of course the best Flat trainers, such as John Gosden, rarely get poorly bred horses to train which is a decent starting point in itself.
All trainers can be creatures of habit and that can include the blood-lines/families they like to train, the agents they use and the sales they target. And also their relationships with particular owners, who will send them horses.
There's clear ‘trainer behaviour logic‘ when it comes to pedigrees yet this is an area that isn't widely discussed from what I can see (you certainly won't find stats like the above in that day's Racing Post I doubt) and maybe that can give us an ‘edge' moving forwards.
Another John Gosden angle….
- Stallion: Galileo – Racing Post Sire comment: champion 3yo colt, inc Derby, Irish Derby & King George; from outstanding family; phenomenal sire.
- Sex: Colt
- Horse Runs Career: 0
23 bets / 8 wins / 11p / 36% sr / +13 SP / +20 BFSP / AE 1.67
Jim Bolger – Stallion: Vocalised
Racing Post Sire comment:$560k yearling, winning 2yo and very smart 7f 3yo, inc dual Group 3; top-class US pedigree
- Sex: Filly
- 0 runs this season
- 25/1< SP (guide, 0/13,0p bigger)
Jim Bolger is an excellent trainer and breeder (Redmondstown Stud). He knows Vocalised well, having trained him to Group 3 success. Now he breeds/trains his kids.
As you can see he's got a decent record with his filly offspring, having their first run of the season (or making their debut).
All bar one of these winners had 3 or fewer career runs and those making seasonal debut (with a run already in their career) were returning after at least 151+ days off.
Bar the trainers modus operandi or recent form, there often won't be much information to go on with horses like this, given how lightly raced they are.
This is where angles such as this can help, trying to act before any money talks.
Although many of these winners were sent off at double figure prices, indicating the general punting public didn't see it coming.
Good news.
Given Bolger's breeding operation it makes sense that he'd want to get wins with these fillies asap and this is the time to catch his Vocalised daughters, systematically at least – racecourse debut and/or seasonal debut.
Aidan O’Brien – Dam Stallion: Pivotal
The RP Sire Comment for Pivotal: high-class sprinter, excellent sire, can get fast, high-class 2yos, progeny often progress well.
- Sex: Filly
- 20/1< SP (guide, 0/11,0p above)
I can't say I started this research exercise expecting to find a pedigree ‘way in' for Aidan O'Brien – but he does well with the daughters of mares who were sired by Pivotal.
Coolmore appears to have clocked onto Pivotal's success with his broodmare daughters and within this angle, as you can see from the table in the main report – 2019 had the most ‘qualifiers'.
I suspect this is the sort of angle that may have a shorter shelf life than some given the connections involved but then again, like with all these angles, I don't think it's something the wider betting public will be aware of yet, or take much interest in.
There is always breeding method to Coolmore's madness.
Mark Johnston – Stallions: Dream Ahead / Exceed And Excel / Invincible Spirit
- Sex: Colts
- Distance: 5-7 furlongs
- Race Type: Maidens / Novices / Handicaps (not nursery)
- Any odds
Within this…
- Making racecourse debut or Top 6 LTO:
120 bets / 38 wins/ 55p / 32% sr / +167 SP / +225 BFSP / AE 1.67
- Beaten more than 15L LTO: 1/17, 4p, -14
Racing Post Sire Comments:-
Dream Ahead: brilliant sprinter at 2-3, from fast family (dam won Flying Childers); good start with first 2yos
Exceed And Excel: bullet Australian sprinter; champion sire in Australia and top-class source in Europe
Invincible Spirit: won Haydock Sprint Cup; dam won French Oaks; closely related to sire Kodiac; top-class producer
Not too much to say here really – Johnston does very well with Colts from these three sires and clearly knows how to get the best out of them, and generally early on in their careers over 5-7f.
He will obviously know this and that will influence his buying/re-stocking activity.
Success breeding success!
It’s such thinking with these sire angles that should ensure the pattern of behaviour is repeated.
And finally…
Richard Hannon – Stallion: Footstepsinthesand
Racing Post Sire Comments: lightly raced, smart 6-7f 2yo, won 2000 Guineas on only start at 3; smart family
- Sex: Colts
- Distance: 5-7 furlongs
- All Race Types
- 10/1< SP (guide, 0/9, 1p above)
Given last season’ success of Mum's Tipple and Threat I suspect Richard Hannon wouldn't mind training some more progeny of Footstepsinthesand – it's that sort of behavioural logic which may ensure this sort of angle ticks along in the next few seasons – provided Hannon has the owners to source the horses/can compete on price – but I’d be surprised if he hasn't been homing in on similar types in recent sales etc., and sales in the future.
Happy Punting,
Josh
Josh owns and runs the horse racing blog www.racingtoprofit.co.uk . His main focus is on unique trainer angles and patterns of behaviour, looking at ‘hot form’ and ‘big race’ trends, stats and trainer pointers. Alongside his excellent free content, Josh has created a community of racing enthusiasts within his ‘Members’ Club’. You can follow Josh on Twitter HERE>>> , where you can also keep up to date with his adventures into horse race ownership, with the mare Really Super, trained by Amy Murphy (he owns a hoof, maybe half).
Featured image - Image by Rudy and Peter Skitterians from Pixabay
