Group 1 Races
It is getting to that time of the year when my thoughts start to focus on the upcoming flat turf season. Of course, for the four days of Cheltenham my mind will be back totally in the National Hunt world, but once that is over, for me it is full steam ahead for the flat.
In this article I am going to look at Group 1 races in the UK. Group 1 races are the highest level of race on the flat and hence are contested by the very best horses. Personally, they are not races I have spent much time on in the past either from a research or betting perspective. However, this research may change all that!
I am looking at data from 2008 to 2022 so 15 seasons in total. Profits and losses will be calculated to Betfair Starting Price (BSP for short).
Betting market – it makes sense to me to look at market data first. You would think with the best horses racing each other, with all trainers, jockeys and horses giving it their absolutely best, that the market would be an excellent guide.
Here are the stats – I am using Betfair SP Market Rank positions which may differ very slightly from Industry SP positions:
Favourites certainly have a good record making a steady 12 pence in the £ return coupled with an excellent A/E figure of 1.06. 10 of the 15 years has seen favourites make a profit to BSP and only one of the five losing years saw a loss of greater than 10% (10 pence in the £).
The Royal Ascot meeting has been a good hunting ground for Group 1 favourites – they have provided 49 winners from 121 (SR 40.5%) producing a level stakes profit of £19.74 (ROI + 16.3%).
In contrast, one meeting where favourites have performed relatively poorly is the Epsom Derby meeting. Favourites have won 14 of the 42 races (SR 33.3%) but produced a loss of £10.91 (ROI – 26%). Maybe the quirky course has something to do with it as some horses are simply not able to produce their best there – I am not sure. Perhaps it is simply down to a modest sample and hence it does not give us the true picture.
Two stables that have done extremely well with horses that have started favourite are the Aidan O'Brien and Gosden stables. O'Brien's figures are 69 wins from 143 runners (SR 48.3%) for a healthy profit of £33.26 (ROI + 23.3%). Gosden's strike rate is above 50 which is impressive – 37 wins from 69 (SR 53.6%) for a profit of £10.16 (ROI +14.7%).
Group 1 races can be mixed races (for both sexes) or male only / female only. Betfair favourites have secured a profit in each of the three as the table below shows:
Male only races have seen a very high strike rate for favourites which is interesting. It is not surprising therefore that these races have secured the best profits.
Sex of horse – It makes sense to discuss this next as we have just looked the performance of favourites in different race types (by sex).
Taking all races as a whole, females have provided much better returns than males overall, but this is mainly due to two winners of around 100.00 BSP.
Strike rates are similar with a slight edge to females.
If pushed, I would say that as a rule in a mixed sex Group 1 race, female runners are likely to provide slightly better value than their male counterparts. However, it is not really giving a real ‘edge' that we, as punters, are always looking for.
Last time out run – I want to look at last time out run next, firstly in terms of finishing position.
As we can see, winners last time out have secured the best strike rate by some margin, but overall losses are quite steep at over 17p in the £. Hence, they have provided relatively poor value and as punters we need to be aware of this.
If we look at 2nd to 5th LTO as a group, they have provided an overall profit, but this is essentially down to a few large, priced winners.
Moving onto horses that finished sixth or worse LTO, these have seen the biggest losses of nearly 23 pence for every £1 staked. This has occurred despite two winners being in excess of 100/1 BSP (105.85 and 116.75).
From a last time out finishing position perspective, it is unclear the best path to take, but my personal advice is to ignore horses that finished sixth or worse in their most recent start. They definitely offer little value.
Dave goes on to investigate if there is a relationship between a last time run in Ireland or the UK and the all important trainers to watch out for in Group 1 races.
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