Cheltenham 2023 – A Review

Yes, it really is Cheltenham again already, and over the years we have looked to find the holy grail of how to make big profits at the festival but truth be told it just isn’t that easy. If it was, we would all be doing it.

Our first ever look at Cheltenham was back in March 2015 which saw us look at the angles of sires and highlighted sires such as Robin Des Champs, Oscar and Shirocco. Had you backed the runners from these three sires blindly you would be up since 2015 by 27.38pts to Industry Starting Prices but a whopping 125.09 to Betfair Exchange Prices, but the strike rate has been a mere 8.33%. Obviously when the winners do come in they come in at a big price.

Interestingly NH Flat runners have been 0 from 10 and Hunter Chasers 0 from 4 with 0 from 5 in the Handicap Novice Chases.

All but 2 of those wins came on Good to Soft or softer, and with the way the grounds are reporting at the minute (apparently we haven’t had that much rain this year…yet). The suggestion would be the progeny run better on the softer side of good going.

Cheltenham should be about the enjoyment of the festival experience, if we can make a profit along the way that is a bonus, so we will be placing a small Win and Place bet on any progeny we see turn up at this year’s festival available at 6.00 or greater on the Exchanges if we get any rain (which let’s be honest we may well do!). A straight Win bet on anything else.

In 2016 we flagged a couple of Irish Raiders Margaret Mullins and Tony Martin (AJ) who had had success at the Festival in 2015. Well, that was the only success. Not a single winner at the Festival was to follow from their 13 subsequent runners.

That’s one we need to forget we think! Let’s swiftly move on to 2017

In 2017 we waxed lyrical over Best Mate and hoped that the ex jockey turned trainer Jim Culloty would have some success at that year’s festival following Lord Windermere’s 2014 success.

Amazingly Jim Culloty had 12 years as a trainer, but further success was not forthcoming and he handed his licence as a trainer in the summer of 2018.

2018 saw us look at runners from the likes of Gordon Elliot, Willie Mullins and Jonjo O’Neill, Paul Nicholls, Tony Martin and David Pipe. All the big names and whether there was an angle to be found amongst the runners.

Since 2018 the Pipe and Martin stables are 0 winners from 30  and 0 from 4 at the festival respectively and  Jonjo O’Neill has been 1 winner from 25.

That leaves us with the Nicholls, Mullins and Elliot yards and as we have come to learn over the years finding the winner from their runners can be a headache.

Interestingly the Mullins National Hunt Flat runners MAY offer a possibility of a profit.

He’s had a winner on the flat every year except 2019, two short priced at 15/8F and 85/40 and two in double figure prices of 11/1 and 25/1. 

We are going to watch for any potential runners this year and if they look like to be going off at an each way price we think we’ll pop on a couple of pounds each way.

2019 saw us take another look at sires and investigate whether there were additional sires worthy of note when their progeny ran at the Cheltenham festival.

Kayf Tara and Shantou were both mentioned in dispatches as possibles over set disctances, but neither progeny performed anywhere near as well as the stats suggested.

Shantou progeny produced just 1 winner at the festival from a total of 41 runners while Kayf Tara progeny produced 2 winners from 31 runners, and not one of those winners came over the suggested distances.

Then we hit 2020, a year possibly best forgotten if that is at all possible.

2021 saw us take an unconventional approach to the festival.

Female horses at the festival over performed in 2021 and 2022 when backed blindly.

And our suggestion at that time was to avoid any Chase race other than the Novices as their success over the larger fences was less than promising.

2022 didn’t offer quite the same success as the previous two years.

This year we are going to take things one step further. Looking at the data from 2020,2021 and 2022 there has been just one winner from 39 runners age 4-5 and 0 winners from 19 runners aged 9-10. So, we need to concentrate on female runners aged 6-8yrs of age.

And…

…this year we are going to be selective and back female runners aged 6-8years in handicap races only.   

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