Past Trends for Favourites in Big fields.

I do like coming up with ‘logical’ betting systems.

It was with this in mind that I looked at targeting favourites in big field races. Indeed, a variant of this idea was to lay the favourite in the biggest field of the day. In 2023, a 40 point profit has accrued to level stakes. I may be onto something. I don’t want to hastily dive in and tell you to get stuck in just yet, as there have been a flurry of winners, some at bigger odds. 

With this idea as a base, I thought I would look at the past trends for favourites in 16+ runner races in the UK and Ireland over the last 10 years.

Class of Race

Backers

Class 3 – 63 points profit to level stakes.

There was only 1 winner when favourites were 9 decimal odds or higher (implement a price filter perhaps?).  Factor in a longest losing sequence of 17 (to gauge betting bank size) if you want to follow this.

Layers

Class 5 – 133 points profit to level stakes (as distinct from fixed liability).

The class of race will appear in the Race titles.

Race Distance

Backers

85 points profit BSP when backing over 19 furlongs. This is 2 miles and 3 furlongs.

A longest losing sequence of only 12 over 10 years should leave you relatively comfortable if backing favourites in 16+ runner races over this distance.

Kelly Criterion staking turned £100 into £2740 – stakes never went above £40. If you have the Staking Machine (www.thestakingmachine.com) and want to know the settings they are

  • £100 bank
  • Divisor 2
  • 80% expected winners.

This distance sees a profit with a number of staking plans. Kelly Criterion really appeals. An excellent return with stakes that are reasonable throughout.

Layers

24 and 16 furlong races for the favourite layer (3 miles and 2 miles) sees 88 and 75 points profit to level stakes.

Race Type

Layers

107.48 points profit to level stakes laying in Bumpers a.k.a. National Hunt Flat Races. These races usually appear in Jumps race meetings.

Longest winning sequence of 16

Longest Losing sequence of 4

Limit risk by fixed liability staking   -risking £10 only per bet turned £100 into £593. Good for automated betting and for those who want to control their liability.

Laying using the famous Maria Staking Plan turned £3000 into £6407.

A rarity to see every single staking plan in the staking machine profit here.  For the uninitiated, the Maria Staking Plan is a very famous lay staking plan, with the ability to allow you to lay at a wide spectrum of odds.

The most profit was Lay % Up and Down turning £200 into £5957 without the bank going below its initial starting amount of £200. You will need specialist staking software such as www.thestakingmachine.com to implement this strategy.

Race Courses

Backers

Galway – 69 points profit to level stakes

Redcar – 64 points profit to level stakes.

Layers

Cork – 88 points to level stakes.

Downroyal – 68 points to level stakes.

Interesting that big field Irish races are ripe for the plucking for the layers.

Race Classification

Backers

Fillies –

Longest winning sequence – 4

Longest losing sequence – 12

You want some fun? A staking plan called Coup Master turned £2K into £28K!!

Layers

National Hunt Flat Races have turned a tidy 105 points profit to level stakes for the layer. Fixed liability layers have seen their betting bank multiply by 6. This appeals, controlling risk via fixed liability is very appealing.  This is another angle which profits with any number of staking plans.

Number of Runners

Layers

16 runners exactly made 128 Points profit to level stakes.

Age of Horse

100 points profit to level stakes laying 9 year old horses when favourite in 16+ runner races. A longest losing sequence of 2 since 2010 again opens the door to loss retrieval (if the past can be repeated into the future!).

January

If you want to limit your workload then January is the month for the Layers. A consistently upward trending profit graph to level stakes. 91 points profit.  Another good profit for fixed liability laying for those who want to control risk.

TFI Friday

From a specific month to a specific day. How about Friday! Fridays are a good day for the layer of favourites in 16+ runner races. 141 points profit to level stakes laying favourites on Friday.  Fixed liability laying multiplied the betting bank by 5 times.

Conclusions

There is plenty of scope for targeting these big field horse races and creating a system or two out of them.  I do recommend other-than-level-stakes staking plans, as these will often-times maximise profit potential.

There is specialist staking plan software such as the Staking Machine at www.thestakingmachine.com to help with the more advanced staking plans.

Clive Keeling