Micro Systems for March
After a very encouraging and profitable January for the micro systems it’s time to turn back to the monthly look and so this time we are looking for micro systems for March to see if we can find a few worthy of our attention for the month ahead.
The first and last month or so of each season can sometimes be tricky to negotiate so let’s see if we can find some solid data that will hopefully pan out again this year and leave us in profit come the end of the month. We’ll be looking at the data for 2022, 2023 and 2024 for the month of March on National Hunt racing. As before we’ll start with a list of all jockeys with 15 or more winners as a minimum across those three previous March’s and each will have to have a positive A/E. Here is our initial list and it’s pretty long this month. It’s ordered by Win Strike rate.
There’s a fair few to pick over here.
Some show a sizeable loss but that doesn’t mean there aren’t micro systems to be found within them and often they can be some of the best.
We’ll start by looking at the jockey with biggest losses, Tom Cannon, to see if there’s anything to be found within the data.
First off we’ll take a look at the number of horses in the qualifying race who won their last race.
Once again it gives a pretty clear picture.
Those races where none of the horses in it had won their last race is quite clearly much better than virtually everything else. However, as this is the first thing I’ve looked at for the moment I am going to keep both 0 and 1 wins. The reason being is that it’s not a big minus, it’s a comparable strike rate and it keeps an extra eight wins to work with.
We can revisit this again after looking at some other areas.
A look at race types now.
Hurdles seem pretty unsuccessful all round. Even both the Handicap and Novices Hurdle’s are showing a loss despite a decent strike rate.
For now, we’ll leave those in but let’s get rid of Maiden Hurdle, Han Nov Hurdle and Hurdle.
A rather curious looking stat now and that’s Course speed.
Curious because there’s a marked difference and it’s very pronounced.
Whether that is down to the style of his riding or the horses he rides I’m not entirely sure, I would think more him?
Here’s the table:
It’s quite a remarkable difference in strike rate across what is, while not a big set of data by any means, nonetheless not a handful of races.
I selected galloping courses and it shows that it is also evenly spread across the three years.
1 win from 13 in 2022, 1 win from 11 in 2023 and 1 win from 8 in 2023. I’m going to remove them.
Another look at our number of horses in the races who won their last race now.
Both 0 and 1 are now in profit. Place profit is rather nice as well.
I think we’re good to go on this one.
Let’s take a look at the jockey, James Bowen, who has the most profit now and see whether that is down to one huge winner or not.
The answer is yes and no.
He had a winner at 40/1, big but not excessive. However, it went in at 110 BSP! Even with that though, his profit is 175 so it’s not all down to that one winner.
A breakdown of his stats by race type.
Both Novices Hurdle and Hurdles would seem to be slim pickings. We’ll remove those.
A look at a few other filters doesn’t really show anything worth filtering out. There’s a few debatable one’s that ‘could’ improve it but really not enough data to justify the filter. We’ll leave it nice and simple.
P V, O’Brien now and we’re going to start by removing his big win because a look through his rides by trainers shows that his most consistent stats are with Harry Derham.
This is also spread fairly evenly over 2023 and 2024. Let’s see if we can dial in a little further although as it stands it’s a nice looking micro system.
Number of horses in the race who won last time out comes to the fore once again.
2 and above are just 1/13 for a loss of 10.11 pts. Out they go.
And that is that!
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